Tropical Depression Five a heavy rain threat; the smoke clears in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

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Tropical Depression Five is currently weak and disorganized, but it has the potential to organize into a potent rain-maker that may bring extremely heavy rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia over the next four days. Outer rain bands from TD 5 are already affecting the New Orleans region, where as much as two inches of rain has fallen in isolated regions. TD 5 has only limited heavy thunderstorm activity at present, thanks to an infusion of dry air early this morning from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. However, TD 5 is steadily recovering from this blow, and water vapor imagery shows the atmosphere is moistening in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as TD 5 builds more heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 15 knots over TD 5, and water temperatures are very warm, 31°C. The Hurricane Hunters have left TD 5, and a new aircraft is scheduled to arrive this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five from the New Orleans radar.

Forecast for TD 5
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight, and remain low for the remainder of TD 5's life. The main hindrance to development will be the current large, disorganized nature of the storm's circulation. Without a tight, well-defined center of circulation, it will take time for the storm to intensify, and I don't expect TD 5 will have time to become more than a 50 mph tropical storm. NHC is giving TD 5 just a 2% chance of reaching hurricane strength. The main threat from TD 5 will be rainfall. This is a slow-moving storm, and the steering currents pushing the storm towards the coast are expected to weaken Thursday and Friday. TD 5 will likely slow to a crawl on Thursday and Friday, moving at just 3 - 5 mph. This will allow the storm to dump very heavy rains in excess of eight inches in isolated regions.

93L
There is not much new to report on the tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days now. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air aloft and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon between 3 - 4 pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF 12z 96 hours, look off Africa.


GFS 12z shows it (much more south)




Anything exiting the African coast that far north (around 13N and above) is most like a fish... very rare that those entities make it all the way through the Atlantic!
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Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
MNC165-111930-
/O.NEW.KMPX.TO.W.0088.100811T1912Z-100811T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
212 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WATONWAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 203 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 4
MILES NORTHWEST OF ST JAMES...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LA
SALLE. RADAR SHOWED THE SEVERE STORM MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ST JAMES...
ECHOLS...
GROGAN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL TORNADO IS IMMINENT...
BUT WILL NOT LIKELY BE ON THE GROUND FOR A LONG TIME...OR CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE DAMAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 4409 9481 4411 9472 4411 9456 4411 9455
4393 9446 4387 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 342DEG 6KT 4403 9465

$$







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Quoting BahaHurican:
I had hoped to ask a similar qtn in the hurricanehaven show on Tuesday, but got back too late. I think one obvious factor is the TUTT and associated ULLs. I remember Drak a couple years ago pointing out that basically nothing happens in the ATL if that TUTT is set up right. I also remember seeing a graph / chart of some kind that illustrated why the optimum storm formation period was between 15 Aug and 15 Oct. There's info out there, but digging it up is the challenge.

uh.... let's not go there....

Hey, HJ. re-Link, pls....


Hey Baha, I don't want to risk getting banned so just take a look in my WU blog for links. Thanks!

I think the COC relocated to west of Fort Myers. Regardless of the pinpoint location it does seem to have relocated. Maybe it's just me...
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well heres to another 2 week wait for the next named storm! when we get to that time, it will be 2 MORE weeks then something could pop. Upper lows dominate this whole season! :)
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I have a question. what is the circulation just off the western florida panhandle that is producing some decent convection?

It can be seen on long range nexrad radar out of tallahasee.
This is the same spin i saw last night ejecting out from the center of TD5....
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could t.d.4 split and become 2 separate systems? i see a nice spin south of Pensacola fl. and it kind of looks like the convection to the se is trying to spin something up. if anyone can elaborate on this for me i would be very thankful:)
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Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF through August 21st...


Eastern ATL view on the 12Z ECMWF...


Ike take a look at Levis video. Scary stuff
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Quoting ElConando:


Sometimes I feel that we are really reaching down the line with some of these potential systems. Feels kinda weird to me, talking about a potential Tropical system currently over Sudan.
2-3 years ago u couldn't find imagery to look at a AEW over Sudan....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21938
Quoting ElConando:


Sometimes I feel that we are really reaching down the line with some of these potential systems. Feels kinda weird to me, talking about a potential Tropical system currently over Sudan.


Reaching down the line is what forecasting is all about. I'm not saying it will happen but to watch it. We only have one other potential area to watch next week so there is nothing else to look for. The pattern is setting up to be one where we look for development regardless of what the model shows....and I only traced it back to the Sudan wave out of curiosity. Of course it's crazy, but after all, I am crazy.
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668. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's also really obvious on the latest vorticity map, which shows... well nothing for 93L. I thought it was pretty weird myself.

93L WV



It does show something, seems to be related to that spin you just posted.
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Quoting SugaCane:


Ya. What's the deal with all the ULL's in the zone this year anyway. Maybe I just haven't payed close attention in years past.


ULL's seems to affecting more storms in the early stages in their formation than years past. Seems that every system this year had to contend with a ULL in the early part of its life. What seems to be not happening as much this year is well formed storms coming into contact with a ULL like Hanna in 08.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Nope, the circulation has opened up, its in between those two blobs.
No west winds, circulation supposed to be near 55W.
It's also really obvious on the latest vorticity map, which shows... well nothing for 93L. I thought it was pretty weird myself.

93L WV

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21938
I love how when storms become ill formed some people still see "new LLCs" popping everywhere (under the bed even??). A bit of a Rorschach test eh?
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Agreed. The year of the ULL's, dry air and things will pop soon.


Ya. What's the deal with all the ULL's in the zone this year anyway. Maybe I just haven't payed close attention in years past.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Well now LOL, it seems obvious something is going on to Td5's east.


Yes it certainly does, this was the Caribbean Sea surface trough that was trying to get going about three days ago with a Marco like appearance with strong not persistent convection. I think it is primarily at the surface which should really help development.
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Quoting Levi32:


96 hours and 192 hours are very different....that gives the illusion that it's the same system when it isn't. The ECMWF is showing the one over western Africa while the GFS is showing the one over SW Sudan.


Sometimes I feel that we are really reaching down the line with some of these potential systems. Feels kinda weird to me, talking about a potential Tropical system currently over Sudan.
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It's very clear from this loop that the former site of TD5, SW of Tampa, is trying to regenerate from the top down. Does anyone have an opinion on the likelihood of that will happening.

Link
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Getting very dark here in PC and winds went from a nice brisk breeze to blustery. I did get my laps in the pool in and the Greyhound a bath though.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
658. JLPR2
Quoting btwntx08:

shos only half of it xD


True, for ASCAT to catch a system completely we need a miracle XD
But seeing half of it gives us a good idea on how it is, still no west winds on the south side and its obvious on visible images, the circulation isn't as defined as yesterday.
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Quoting btwntx08:

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/WALTON

walton never heard of him before also way too consertative also i heard what ike ike not dumm gfs shows something u saw it wrong again
Walton's been writing TWDs [Tropical Weather Discussions] for years. These are just as useful in their way as TWOs, and sometimes more informative about the general situation. He never struck me as being particularly conservative.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21938
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Where is Stennis Space Center? I can't remember. TIA
Sheri


Stennis Space Center is off I-10 about 40 minutes West of Gulfport, MS. ANN NASA rocket engines have been tested here since the first Saturn rockets were used. Big US Navy / NOAA weather research center here as well . . .
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Quoting Levi32:


It was a big storm like Srada pointed out, but a Cat 2 at landfall, not a major.



Huge storm, brought TS gusts to Miami and it was that far away. No rain, just a lot of wind. I actually went outside to play basketball as it made its closest approach. Had to stop after a bit though, too much dirt got into my eyes.
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Quoting efallon28:


No, that's the local long range Doppler used by the NBC affiliate, not one of the NWS stations. It's more accurate than the looking at the Tampa or Key West ones for our area, that's for sure. But if there were a spin "just off the coast", you'd see it on there.


Exactly, I was looking for the closest NWS radar so I could pull it up in grlevel3. :)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF 12z 96 hours, look off Africa.


GFS 12z shows it (much more south)




96 hours and 192 hours are very different....that gives the illusion that it's the same system when it isn't. The ECMWF is showing the one over western Africa while the GFS is showing the one over SW Sudan.
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Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


Ahhhh....Rita in 2005??? Ike in 2008?? They weren't majors??




Rita made its landfall on the LA/TX border as a Cat 3.

Ike was a Cat 2 at Landfall.
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Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


Ahhhh....Rita in 2005??? Ike in 2008?? They weren't majors??




Rita didn't make landfall in Texas, but rather just across the border in LA. ;) And as stated, Ike was not technically a major.
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650. JLPR2
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Well now LOL, it seems obvious something is going on to Td5's east.
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Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


Ahhhh....Rita in 2005??? Ike in 2008?? They weren't majors??




Both were two's at landfall.
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647. JLPR2
Quoting psuweathernewbie:


Could be going to the surface, given there are favorable conditions within this area. Also an upper level anticyclone is over this circulation.


That is a possibility.
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646. xcool


GFS WEST .
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D!!!!!
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At the end of this Doppler Radar loop you will see Tropical Storm Fay turn into a broad low pressure system similar to Tropical Depression 5.

Except TD-5 is much broader.
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643. IKE
12Z ECMWF through August 21st...


Eastern ATL view on the 12Z ECMWF...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
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Quoting JLPR2:


Mid level circulation.


Could be going to the surface, given there are favorable conditions within this area. Also an upper level anticyclone is over this circulation.
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640. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TROPICAL STORM DIANMU (T1004)
3:00 AM JST August 12 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Dianmu (992 hPa) located at 37.0N 133.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
210 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 41.0N 142.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 46.8N 153.1E - Extratropical
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639. JLPR2
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
Yeah I know JLPR, too bad. Anyways it looks like 93L's circulation has relocated to the east at around 50W and 25N.


Mid level circulation.
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Quoting srada:


It was the biggest evacuation ever for a hurricane..4 states I believe because of the uncertainty of landfall..thats why you cant take these storms projected paths for certain..they have a "mind" of their own
I'm kinda hoping NHC has improved the forecast skills enough to bring this down to two states. That depends on size, too, of course, as well as trajectory. I keep thinking about Donna...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21938
I think the newly forming COC of TD5 is located at roughly 83.5W, and 27.0N
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Quoting angiest:


Along those lines, the upper Texas coast (roughly from Freeport to Sabine Pass) still hasn't taken a direct hit from a major since Alicia, since Ike wasn't technically a major... (I fully expect at some point they will eventually reclassify him).


Ike actually did strengthen to a Cat 3 major just prior to landfall near Galveston Bay.

And ...what about Hurricane Rita in 2005, which hit Sabine Pass with 130mph winids??


Anthony


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people on here really need to get a clue...just cause the clouds on any form of satellite imagery have a circular look to them does NOT make them a TD, TS or hurricane. And just cause its an invest does not mean TC formation is imminent. Many invests are numbered every season that never amount to anything, as a matter of fact the majority of most invests are nothing more than that, an invest. Wishing, repeating yourself, or any other form of hyping or HNC bashing will NOT case the clouds to majically and miraculously form into a TC.

Rant on...
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ECMWF 12z 96 hours, look off Africa.


GFS 12z shows it (much more south)


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
631. xcool
2010 ULL YEAR
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630. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Your kidding right?



Nope, the circulation has opened up, its in between those two blobs.
No west winds, circulation supposed to be near 55W.
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Yeah I know JLPR, too bad. Anyways it looks like 93L's circulation has relocated to the east at around 50W and 25N.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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