Tropical Depression Five a heavy rain threat; the smoke clears in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

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Tropical Depression Five is currently weak and disorganized, but it has the potential to organize into a potent rain-maker that may bring extremely heavy rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia over the next four days. Outer rain bands from TD 5 are already affecting the New Orleans region, where as much as two inches of rain has fallen in isolated regions. TD 5 has only limited heavy thunderstorm activity at present, thanks to an infusion of dry air early this morning from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. However, TD 5 is steadily recovering from this blow, and water vapor imagery shows the atmosphere is moistening in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as TD 5 builds more heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 15 knots over TD 5, and water temperatures are very warm, 31°C. The Hurricane Hunters have left TD 5, and a new aircraft is scheduled to arrive this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five from the New Orleans radar.

Forecast for TD 5
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight, and remain low for the remainder of TD 5's life. The main hindrance to development will be the current large, disorganized nature of the storm's circulation. Without a tight, well-defined center of circulation, it will take time for the storm to intensify, and I don't expect TD 5 will have time to become more than a 50 mph tropical storm. NHC is giving TD 5 just a 2% chance of reaching hurricane strength. The main threat from TD 5 will be rainfall. This is a slow-moving storm, and the steering currents pushing the storm towards the coast are expected to weaken Thursday and Friday. TD 5 will likely slow to a crawl on Thursday and Friday, moving at just 3 - 5 mph. This will allow the storm to dump very heavy rains in excess of eight inches in isolated regions.

93L
There is not much new to report on the tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days now. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air aloft and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon between 3 - 4 pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

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Surface/Mid level circulation developing or reforming near 27.4N/84.6W. Convection is beginning to take more of a counter clockwise spin to it moving wnw now getting away from land and could rapidly develop given developing anticyclonic winds aloft, warm SSTs, a moistening environment and a strong mid to low level circulation developing, towards DMAX tomorrow morning, if it shows no signs by then, then its RIP TD5.
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Quoting btwntx08:
for feeling bad again today i bang myself with my head 5 times
wow thats deep
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723. xcool
HA
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The wave at approx 55 15n is firing off some convection and doesn't look that bad. Yellow circle, but who knows. 93L down to orange. . . one seems to be the worlds longest lasting invest. lol
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Quoting btwntx08:
sry all im having a bad day kristina u accepted my apologize over a month ago somethings it happens plz forgive me


OK
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
Quoting BahaHurican:
I have a feeling most W African radar is airport or military, and that most governments aren't in as much of a position to make radar findings available on the WWW to the extent that the US, Canada, Europe and Japan are... I'm glad we have the satviews now that we didn't before.


That is probably the case. Not many fully democratic nations in Africa either. I doubt those countries have the luxury to consider providing it.
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Sorry to be pedantic, but only one M in BahaMas....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Is 93L the longest Invest ever?
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Quoting ElConando:
693. Did not know about that law. Though I guess I have been following it pretty well.
Kinda hard not to, given the ridiculous way rain falls in FL - 1 minute absolute dry, the next, the deluge that created the Flood.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
The Central Atlantic Tropical Triangle!

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NOUS42 KNHC 111900
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0300 PM EDT WED 11 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-073 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS --AMENDED
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS:
A.ALL TASKING FOR THE AIR FORCE ON TD-05
WAS CANX BY NHC AT 11/1830Z.
B. NOAA IS STILL PLANNING TO FLY SEVERAL
RESEARCH MISSONS THAT WERE ON TCPOD 10-072.
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710. 7544
looks like the bahamma blob is trying to gain new conv. looking good for the island wave to the east who gets to be 95l first ?

note low shear in thge bahmmas area
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Quoting OpusDei:
I love how when storms become ill formed some people still see "new LLCs" popping everywhere (under the bed even??). A bit of a Rorschach test eh?
well if there looking for stuff under the bed we might have a problem
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Quoting sarahjola:
sorry didn't mean to offend by making a simple mistake about the t.d. number. i don't think there is a spin sse of Pensacola, i think its s. of Pensacola. se was referring to the convection below what i see s. of Pensacola. thanks for the answer


You'd probably be happier just ignoring him. I made the mistake of taking him off my ignore list but I think I might need to fix that.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
Quoting btwntx08:

incorrect and please get rid of ur simileys it annoying
i love how this guy tells you that you are wrong and never supplies any reasons why.
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693. Did not know about that law. Though I guess I have been following it pretty well.
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Quoting ElConando:


Very true. In fact I have yet to see Radar loops of central and NW Africa.
I have a feeling most W African radar is airport or military, and that most governments aren't in as much of a position to make radar findings available on the WWW to the extent that the US, Canada, Europe and Japan are... I'm glad we have the satviews now that we didn't before.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting btwntx08:
first of all its td 5 not td 4 also there is a good vorticity wsw of tampa but nothing sse of pensacola
sorry didn't mean to offend by making a simple mistake about the t.d. number. i don't think there is a spin sse of Pensacola, i think its s. of Pensacola. se was referring to the convection below what i see s. of Pensacola. thanks for the answer
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BTWN No. ignore me then.it would make you and me feel better. :):)

Too bad bp had to stop with the relief well work again due to this system. it needs to get done to where they can focus on coastal cleanup and payouts.
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Well, something passed right over bouy 42039. Either that or the anemometer needs a tune up.
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Quoting StormChaser81:
At the end of this Doppler Radar loop you will see Tropical Storm Fay turn into a broad low pressure system similar to Tropical Depression 5.

Except TD-5 is much broader.


What a vicious TS Faye was! One of the most notable Tropical Storms I can remember.
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699. xcool
5PM warningsBE drop .
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Quoting sarahjola:
lol! we must have asked at the same time. i think t.d. 4 is splitting:)


lol, yea we did. It is TD5 btw. It seems to be traking west at a decent clip and should make "landfall" somewhere between NO and mobile, so it has some more time over water but i doubt its stacked and won't develop much.

look at the nice circulation on long range nexrad out of red bay(TAL) all you folks looking for a LLC out of the cluster near tampa
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With the ULL blazing westward at warp speed, if, and its a pretty good if, there is any kind of spin under the convection off of the central fl west coast, it would find itself in an improving upper level environment. Furthermore, it would delay landfall and I would think move more westerly.
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Hmmmm.... thinking about what's coming up in the context of climatology, the Bahamas has in the past gotten a brush from storm #4 [D] and a licking from storm #6 [F] in the years where we can expect 2 storms. After that, 9 & 10 have been bad numbers....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
I see nothing in the radar from Tampa or Key West to indicate a new LLC forming. Granted, I am having to use the 248NM scan to look in the area some bloggers were thinking, and even then I may not have enough range depending on how far west I need to look...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
2-3 years ago u couldn't find imagery to look at a AEW over Sudan....


Very true. In fact I have yet to see Radar loops of central and NW Africa.
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Ya know, I see a lot of wish/down casting which in turn brings arguing from mostly adults that are either professional Mets or newbies like myself.

I think Doc and Storm do a pretty good job of laying it all out there.

But here is a link that gives a real simple explanation of formation, climatology, etc...

So if these guys get it right, cant we all live a little more peaceable with each other? I dont rattle Levi's, Reeds, or IKE's cage when I disagree. I really wish all this wishcast/downcast drama would dissipate never to reform. ;-) I say that with all the love a newbie can put together.

Link
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Quoting cardinal56:
Hey guys, i've been lurking the blogs for about 4 years now, learned alot, and also heard a lot of bs. Buy hey, with the good comes the bad right? I've taken my experience, and created a small amateur hurricane website called South Florida Hurricane Center, a friend and i have really put a lot of hours and effort into making that website, so i hope you check it out. Thanks to all of you over the years for sharing your insights, and thoughts about the tropics. I've grown from a clueless citizen to a pretty knowledgeable individual when it comes to the tropics thanks to this blog.

Nice Web Page...WU Mail me...


on topic now...
Broken Clouds 90°F
Feels Like: 96°
Wind Chill: 90° Ceiling: 6300
Heat Index: 96° Visibility: 10mi
Dew Point: 72° Wind: 7mph
Humidity: 55% Direction: 80° (E)
Pressure: 29.85" Gusts: NA
Report Text: KPNS 111900Z 08006KT 10SM SCT045 BKN065 32/22 A2985 RMK AO2
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Hey Baha, I don't want to risk getting banned so just take a look in my WU blog for links. Thanks!

I think the COC relocated to west of Fort Myers. Regardless of the pinpoint location it does seem to have relocated. Maybe it's just me...
Kewl on the links... ur not the only one thinking about the potential relocation....

It's great 2 see u in the blog, btw.... lol

Quoting sflawavedude:
well heres to another 2 week wait for the next named storm! when we get to that time, it will be 2 MORE weeks then something could pop. Upper lows dominate this whole season! :)
One can always hope, right? I tried living in that dream world before Bonnie and Colin...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting sarahjola:
could t.d.4 split and become 2 separate systems? i see a nice spin south of Pensacola fl. and it kind of looks like the convection to the se is trying to spin something up. if anyone can elaborate on this for me i would be very thankful:)
i welcome any and all answers
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Quoting Levi32:


Reaching down the line is what forecasting is all about. I'm not saying it will happen but to watch it. We only have one other potential area to watch next week so there is nothing else to look for. The pattern is setting up to be one where we look for development regardless of what the model shows....and I only traced it back to the Sudan wave out of curiosity. Of course it's crazy, but after all, I am crazy.


LOL understood. I think it is safe to say most of us on here are crazy. I mean how many people in the world would find so much humor in weather?
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I see TD5 has become poorly organized. Not likely to strengthen much before making landfall. Might make TS strength before landfall.
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Quoting nwFLstormstalker:
I have a question. what is the circulation just off the western florida panhandle that is producing some decent convection?

It can be seen on long range nexrad radar out of tallahasee.
This is the same spin i saw last night ejecting out from the center of TD5....
lol! we must have asked at the same time. i think t.d. 4 is splitting:)
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Quoting JLPR2:


It does show something, seems to be related to that spin you just posted.
That looks a lot better than at 0900 UTC....

I'm noting the limited vorticity with the Twave near the E Car. I would have expected it to work its way down by now...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF 12z 96 hours, look off Africa.


GFS 12z shows it (much more south)




Anything exiting the African coast that far north (around 13N and above) is most like a fish... very rare that those entities make it all the way through the Atlantic!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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