Tropical Depression Five a heavy rain threat; the smoke clears in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

Share this Blog
1
+

Tropical Depression Five is currently weak and disorganized, but it has the potential to organize into a potent rain-maker that may bring extremely heavy rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia over the next four days. Outer rain bands from TD 5 are already affecting the New Orleans region, where as much as two inches of rain has fallen in isolated regions. TD 5 has only limited heavy thunderstorm activity at present, thanks to an infusion of dry air early this morning from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. However, TD 5 is steadily recovering from this blow, and water vapor imagery shows the atmosphere is moistening in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as TD 5 builds more heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 15 knots over TD 5, and water temperatures are very warm, 31°C. The Hurricane Hunters have left TD 5, and a new aircraft is scheduled to arrive this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five from the New Orleans radar.

Forecast for TD 5
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight, and remain low for the remainder of TD 5's life. The main hindrance to development will be the current large, disorganized nature of the storm's circulation. Without a tight, well-defined center of circulation, it will take time for the storm to intensify, and I don't expect TD 5 will have time to become more than a 50 mph tropical storm. NHC is giving TD 5 just a 2% chance of reaching hurricane strength. The main threat from TD 5 will be rainfall. This is a slow-moving storm, and the steering currents pushing the storm towards the coast are expected to weaken Thursday and Friday. TD 5 will likely slow to a crawl on Thursday and Friday, moving at just 3 - 5 mph. This will allow the storm to dump very heavy rains in excess of eight inches in isolated regions.

93L
There is not much new to report on the tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days now. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air aloft and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon between 3 - 4 pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 77 - 27

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

'The number of people confirmed to have died after massive landslides in north-western China has risen to 1,117, with 627 others missing, officials say.

Hopes of finding survivors are fading and rescuers are turning their efforts to recovering bodies and preventing outbreaks of disease.

Large areas in Zhouqu county, Gansu province, were enveloped by landslides triggered by rain on Saturday night.

Rain is forecast for later this week, prompting fears of further landslides.'

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
biloxidaisy said:

"Not me! Where I am in Biloxi (St. Martin) my yard is saturated still from the nearly daily thunderstorms. You can't walk in the backyard without squishing up mud."

Y'all get way more rainfall on the coast than we do further north(Hattiesburg). My pond is very low, about 6 foot down from the spring level. :(

That said, hope you miss the worst of it. Just send it my way!! ;)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 105
Quoting twhcracker:
i am hoping for a blustery cool drizly day! would that be awesome or what?!


I'm LOVING IT - even my hens are quacking with joy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Reed what is your take on the yellow circle on the NHC. I am at work so if the comment was answered sorry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TotalAnnihilation:
The topic says Moscow has been hot, but nothing specifically about GW, so it is now off-limits.


**POOF!**
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like it be raining in Houma LA pretty good right now!!

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i am hoping for a blustery cool drizly day! would that be awesome or what?!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Thee ULL is really moving west now....

It seems that if there is still a spin down in the se gom... It will have a better chance of spinning up with the improving upper air pattern.


I was wondering the very same thing. If you observe satellite imagery, there seems to be an appearance of a spin about 100 miles due west of Sarasota. There is considerable convection flaring up in that vicinity as well. A very strange system being very elongated and broad. What gives this season uh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Antilles wave is flaring up a bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting biloxidaisy:


Not me! Where I am in Biloxi (St. Martin) my yard is saturated still from the nearly daily thunderstorms. You can't walk in the backyard without squishing up mud.


Agreed...same here in Pass Christian. My husband in out cutting the grass as we speak in case we get tons of rain that prevents him from cutting it for a week or so.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
are NOLA's Levees okay with this amount of rain? or will that be a concern?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Thee ULL is really moving west now....

It seems that if there is still a spin down in the se gom... It will have a better chance of spinning up with the improving upper air pattern.
It almost seems that the ULL will snap off (if you will) and leave behind a new COC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
56. HappyBirthdayJFV
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.

that should answer your question
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
That is one broad circulation with TD5. Looks like it combined with the ULL to form one big broad circulation. I'm still not ruling out the center re-forming to the East near the heaviest convection that has been persistent all morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GetReal:


I have a feeling the center may relocate near the burst.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
"None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L."

That sucks !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
59. IKE
56...go mow the grass...wash the car....trim the hedges...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://www.canefever.com/links.php al here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeauxGirl:


I'm hoping for 8" where I am. We need it desperately.


Not me! Where I am in Biloxi (St. Martin) my yard is saturated still from the nearly daily thunderstorms. You can't walk in the backyard without squishing up mud.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thee ULL is really moving west now....

It seems that if there is still a spin down in the se gom... It will have a better chance of spinning up with the improving upper air pattern.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeauxGirl:


I'm hoping for 8" where I am.


Me too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
51. IKE
Coordinates of TD5.....

27.8N.
86.8W.


Coordinates of buoy 42039.....

28.8N.
86.0W.

Or about 60 miles NE of the "coc" of TD5.........


5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts

5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.85 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.9 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 78.3 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 83.5 °F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
Since this storm crossed Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, 94L had been headed toward Havana,Cuba then Freeport,Texas, turned into TropicalDepressionFive while heading toward IntracoastalCity,Louisiana, then headed toward PortArthur,Texas, Destin,Florida and Galveston,Texas.

After TD5 had headed toward Waveland,Mississippi then IntracoastalCity (again)
- Time and Date - - Location
11pmEDT 10Aug - 26.2N84.2W
02amEDT 11Aug - 26.3N84.5W
05amEDT 11Aug - 26.8N85.1W
07amCDT 11Aug - 27.1N85.8W
10amCDT 11Aug - 27.8N86.8W
...TD5 has been heading toward NewOrleans,Louisiana
Copy&paste 26.0N84.1W-26.2N84.2W, 26.2N84.2W-26.3N84.5W, 26.3N84.5W-26.8N85.1W, 26.8N85.1W-27.1N85.8W, 27.1N85.8W-27.8N86.8W, 30.3n89.5w, 29.6n92.1w, 27.8N86.8W-29.7n89.6w into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.



Where do you get this information from?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link


Thank you, finally one not linked to the NHC and a good one at that!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:
From Jeff's post: This will allow the storm to dump very heavy rains in excess of eight inches in isolated regions.

I cannot even imagine 8" of rain

Thank heavan for our quick drain sandy soil, well, at least down here next to the Gulf. I'm just ready for the breeze and some clouds to knock down this heat!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is a new small burst popping out of the strong convection to the SE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TotalAnnihilation:
The topic says Moscow has been hot, but nothing specifically about GW, so it is now off-limits.


And yet you brought it up. Does that mean it's now in limits? Great! I've a few things to post later...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13473
Quoting NASA101:


Please don't post images that are 2 days old...!! THANKS!
The image is from August 11, 12:00 UTC...not 2 days old. It's about 3 and a half hours old.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Doc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning everyone.

Thanks Dr. Masters with the update!

TD5 likely to be a huge rain maker the remaining of this week across the Northern Gulf Coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has Levi posted his tidbit for the day yet???
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
WOW


Please don't post images that are 2 days old...!! THANKS!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting cyclonekid:
Good Morning!

What happened to TD 5? It looked gorgeous yesterday; now it just looks like a bundled up mess. I thought it would be Daneille by now. Instead its weakening. Can anybody tell me what happened?




The upper air invironment.
It has all-along been a detriment to this thing organizing. The wv loops from 48 hrs ago thu now tell the story:

The upper air low moved across Fl (moistened up as it did) westward to where it is now (sw of NOLA about 100 miles or so.

Low level spin meanwhile, has been trying to "go" off the sw fl coast, but cant gain no traction. Now it seems the ULL has helped to lower the pressures a little over the whole northern gom and helping to create a much broader circulation... Thats what the TPC is calling the center now ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:
I cannot even imagine 8" of rain.


I'm hoping for 8" where I am. We need it desperately.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 105

Viewing: 77 - 27

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.