Tropical Depression Five a heavy rain threat; the smoke clears in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

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Tropical Depression Five is currently weak and disorganized, but it has the potential to organize into a potent rain-maker that may bring extremely heavy rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia over the next four days. Outer rain bands from TD 5 are already affecting the New Orleans region, where as much as two inches of rain has fallen in isolated regions. TD 5 has only limited heavy thunderstorm activity at present, thanks to an infusion of dry air early this morning from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. However, TD 5 is steadily recovering from this blow, and water vapor imagery shows the atmosphere is moistening in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as TD 5 builds more heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 15 knots over TD 5, and water temperatures are very warm, 31°C. The Hurricane Hunters have left TD 5, and a new aircraft is scheduled to arrive this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five from the New Orleans radar.

Forecast for TD 5
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight, and remain low for the remainder of TD 5's life. The main hindrance to development will be the current large, disorganized nature of the storm's circulation. Without a tight, well-defined center of circulation, it will take time for the storm to intensify, and I don't expect TD 5 will have time to become more than a 50 mph tropical storm. NHC is giving TD 5 just a 2% chance of reaching hurricane strength. The main threat from TD 5 will be rainfall. This is a slow-moving storm, and the steering currents pushing the storm towards the coast are expected to weaken Thursday and Friday. TD 5 will likely slow to a crawl on Thursday and Friday, moving at just 3 - 5 mph. This will allow the storm to dump very heavy rains in excess of eight inches in isolated regions.

93L
There is not much new to report on the tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days now. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air aloft and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon between 3 - 4 pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

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225. CJ5
The wave at 56/14 probably bears some watching. There is mid level vort, shear is low and conditions appear to be favorable. It may spin up in a day or so.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Just outta curiousity, Ike, r u and DestinJeff related?

LOL




Is 93L the well organized area of convection with rainbands, or is it the little ball farther South-West?
BTW Good Afternoon/Morning
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GFS 180 hours.. interesting disturbance off Africa.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23889
Quoting gordydunnot:
Hey Patrap the finns open on my B-day. See ya in the super bowel.


That had to be on purpose...tell me it was on purpose!
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Why is the convection staying consistant over 85W and 27N? TD5 looks like its barely moving.
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Quoting Kristina40:
Oh lol Patrap, I forgot they were playing the Saints. FWIW I was routing for your Saints last year though.


You were mapping their routes? Man, I want your job!
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Quoting Patrap:
We Like the Pats,,I worked the Security at the first post 911 Super Bowl here Early 02,when the Pats won.


I remember that game well, my Dad was dying of cancer and I was so happy he got to see his team win a Super Bowl before he died. He died that August. I lived in St. Louis at the time and was a Rams fan.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:



Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm.


Great weather for a Saints win
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We Like the Pats,,I worked the Superdome Security at the first post 911 Super Bowl here Early 02,when the Pats won.
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93L on the verge of becoming a tropical depression.
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Oh lol Patrap, I forgot they were playing the Saints. FWIW I was routing for your Saints last year though.
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212. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, u have a right to ur opinion, about storms and about pple... I'll leave u to it. Just remember that other pple do also, which is why calling pple wishcasters and downcasters is IMO a WOT activity...
I thought you had a good pt about the increased T#; I think Ike has a good point about 93L still not looking as impressive as expected. I just don't think personalizing ur disagreement w/ Ike's viewpoint is valuable to u or the blog in the long run. Someone else suggested using [ignore] and that is actually what that button is for. But when I said toughen up, I meant "recognise that lots of pple in here are going to hold opposing points of view, and u can't be using up all ur energies liking or disliking on the basis of that".


See what I mean.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Just Back from Lunch......Don't have a clue where or in what condition TD5 will reach a coastline but sure is a slow mover....Somebody is going to be flooded really bad from this slow soaker rgeardless of additional development.....Don't need bonafide storm or hurricane for significant flood damage.
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, August this year is normal, 2005 only had 2-3 named storms from August 8th to the 23th

2-3??, lol, im pretty sure its one or the other.
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208. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ike, that doesn't mean I don't think there's still a window of opportunity for 93L. But I do think it's best chance to strengthen is gone. Levi may be right about another window on the weekend, but we shall see about that....


No....I wasn't responding to what you thought...I was responding to that blogger from Texas that keeps trying to hammer me.

I have him on ignore.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting SevereHurricane:



Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm.


O man,,thanks.

Perfect weather for the Saints Vs New England Game.

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Guess August in 2005 was a bust to.. Hmmmm

9 Hurricane IRENE 04-18 AUG 85 975 2
10 Tropical Depression TEN 13-14 AUG 30 1008 -
11 Tropical Storm JOSE 22-23 AUG 45 1001 -
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Tropical Depression 5 remains disorganized, mainly rain threat
Published: Wednesday, August 11, 2010, 10:22 AM



Tropical Depression 5 looks to become a mostly rain event that will linger over south Louisiana through Friday.


National Hurricane Center forecasters say the center of the disorganized depression, "such as it is," reformed to the northwest of its
The depression has become large and elongated, with bands of showers and thunderstorms located on its outside, and only limited activity at its center, say senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown and hurricane specialist John Cangialosi in a 10 a.m. discussion message.
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Quoting Patrap:
Whats the forecast for Foxboro,Mass 8pm Thursday Night.

I needs to know,



Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm.
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Quoting btwntx08:

toughen up?? i know what im doing and everyone is right about him
Hey, u have a right to ur opinion, about storms and about pple... I'll leave u to it. Just remember that other pple do also, which is why calling pple wishcasters and downcasters is IMO a WOT activity...
I thought you had a good pt about the increased T#; I think Ike has a good point about 93L still not looking as impressive as expected. I just don't think personalizing ur disagreement w/ Ike's viewpoint is valuable to u or the blog in the long run. Someone else suggested using [ignore] and that is actually what that button is for. But when I said toughen up, I meant "recognise that lots of pple in here are going to hold opposing points of view, and u can't be using up all ur energies liking or disliking on the basis of that".
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21892
Quoting extreme236:
Convection is increasing in 93L's bands. It is well-organized and it could very well be classified later today.

I still believe a new center could form with 05L farther SE but we'll see.



Yep! That's what I see, a center relocating SE near the bands.. Just makes sense, doesn't it? So much for this August bust... Could have 2 systems in the Atlantic tomorrow.
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Quoting Kristina40:


Pats fan are ya Patrap? I was raised not far from Foxboro.


Blasphemy!
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Quoting MScasinojunkie:
Gee I wouldn't wanna violate Community Standards!! All because I said I don't give a crap about China or Pakistan


Don't forget about the Teleconnections!
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Quoting Patrap:
Whats the forecast for Foxboro,Mass 8pm Thursday Night.

I needs to know,


Pats fan are ya Patrap? I was raised not far from Foxboro.
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Quoting IKE:


Yup...we're both panhandlers.

You two make a great pair --- kinda reminds me of Abbott and Costello. LOL
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Whats the forecast for Foxboro,Mass 8pm Thursday Night.

I needs to know,
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Quoting extreme236:
Convection is increasing in 93L's bands. It is well-organized and it could very well be classified later today.

I still believe a new center could form with 05L farther SE but we'll see.



It would give the system a big boost if it could do that. The number one thing would be more time over water. We'll see, though.
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Quoting IKE:


You mean Aug-bust?


Ike, August this year is normal, 2005 only had 2-3 named storms from August 8th to the 23th. It's not a bust, lol. We are doing good for this month. As Levi explained in his video yesterday, things will get interesting in the next week or so.
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Quoting extreme236:
StormW/Drak/Levi have all explained numerous times why this season will be well-above average, but if people don't want to listen I guess that's fine.


Are you surprised?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23889
I'll post this again for people concerned (hopeful might be a better word) about the "blob" off the SW Florida coast. It's the local doppler, which shows a steady amount of showers moving to the N around the broad center. If anybody can see any evidence of anything resembling a new center forming, your eyes are much better then mine. Cheers

Link
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 105
Quoting DDR:

OH...in 93
Thought you had that today lol
Quoting nola70119:


May Flood, I think it was 93, but I don't remember.......20 people died, Canal Street was flooded to the windows of the taxis, etc. Its a famous flood....just from t'storms training from the SW over Houma.


It was 1995. Don't forget the hail damage. Many people lost their cars and thousands of roofs had severe hail damage. Came with little to no warning.
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Quoting Kristina40:
MScasinojunkie, congrats! You just won the prize for most ignorant post of the day!
The day's still young. Don't give out any prizes too early.
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Quoting btwntx08:
i dont see weatherguys blog i only see stormw and levi's nice try though


Link
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Quoting MScasinojunkie:
Gee I wouldn't wanna violate Community Standards!! All because I said I don't give a crap about China or Pakistan


I would say what I am thinking, but I myself would get banned. Your a idiot sir.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23889


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StormW/Drak/Levi have all explained numerous times why this season will be well-above average, but if people don't want to listen I guess that's fine.
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182. unf97
Just an observation, but I would not be in the least surprised that a center is reforming 100-150 miles W-SW of Tampa. Satellite imagery to me shows rotation just on the outer edge of the deep convection in this area. I will be curious to see the next TWD on what may be occuring in this area.
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12:00 PM EDT UPDATE
Member Since: July 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
Quoting BahaHurican:
Just outta curiousity, Ike, r u and DestinJeff related?

LOL





Is that a circulation setting up over the easterly system? Might the two convective pieces perform a Fujiwara?
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Convection is increasing in 93L's bands. It is well-organized and it could very well be classified later today.

I still believe a new center could form with 05L farther SE but we'll see.

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Quoting IKE:


Downcasting...lol.

Here btwntx08.....look at the convection die off in this loop....Link

Listen to weatherguy03's take on 93L...Link
Ike, that doesn't mean I don't think there's still a window of opportunity for 93L. But I do think it's best chance to strengthen is gone. Levi may be right about another window on the weekend, but we shall see about that....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21892

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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