Tropical Depression Five a heavy rain threat; the smoke clears in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

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Tropical Depression Five is currently weak and disorganized, but it has the potential to organize into a potent rain-maker that may bring extremely heavy rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia over the next four days. Outer rain bands from TD 5 are already affecting the New Orleans region, where as much as two inches of rain has fallen in isolated regions. TD 5 has only limited heavy thunderstorm activity at present, thanks to an infusion of dry air early this morning from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. However, TD 5 is steadily recovering from this blow, and water vapor imagery shows the atmosphere is moistening in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as TD 5 builds more heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 15 knots over TD 5, and water temperatures are very warm, 31°C. The Hurricane Hunters have left TD 5, and a new aircraft is scheduled to arrive this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five from the New Orleans radar.

Forecast for TD 5
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight, and remain low for the remainder of TD 5's life. The main hindrance to development will be the current large, disorganized nature of the storm's circulation. Without a tight, well-defined center of circulation, it will take time for the storm to intensify, and I don't expect TD 5 will have time to become more than a 50 mph tropical storm. NHC is giving TD 5 just a 2% chance of reaching hurricane strength. The main threat from TD 5 will be rainfall. This is a slow-moving storm, and the steering currents pushing the storm towards the coast are expected to weaken Thursday and Friday. TD 5 will likely slow to a crawl on Thursday and Friday, moving at just 3 - 5 mph. This will allow the storm to dump very heavy rains in excess of eight inches in isolated regions.

93L
There is not much new to report on the tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days now. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air aloft and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon between 3 - 4 pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

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263. btwntx08 12:51 PM EDT on August 11, 2010

I was just looking at the updates; they have the "low" marked at due south of Mobile sandwiched between two ULL cells.....I'm wondering if NHC is going to downgrade it later today due to a lack of any organized COC.
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Ok the GFS 06 is thinking TD5 is doing a loop back into the GOM.

This could bring a ton of rain to southern LA, MS, AL, and some to SW GA.
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Quoting unf97:


That is what I have been seeing all morning. There does appear to be a spin about 100-150 miles W-SW of Tampa. There is a possibility of a center reforming. I would not be surprised at all should that be the case.

If the convection stays constant, as it has been doing for most of the day to this point, I would be inclined to think that is what we are seeing. But, things can change so quickly, so we just have to wait and see how it all shakes down.


Getting some bands of rain for the system here in Palm Coast.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362
Quoting scott39:
The whole outline area of the convection of TD5, looks like a big football and its just sitting there in the GOM.


Its actually Mother Natures "atta Boy" to the Super Bowl Champions..

A Fluffy one at dat..


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Quoting btwntx08:
3 hr cimss just updated
The ridge is starting to make itself known... Shear starting to increase.
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KEESHMY
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I guess I'd better go out and swim my laps before it starts raining. I'm in PC as well Eagle.
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Roger Dat,..Jon
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Quoting reedzone:
Noticing a new swirl near the deep convection of TD at 85W and 27N.. possible center reforming?
The whole outline area of the convection of TD5, looks like a big football and its just sitting there in the GOM.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6752
266. 1965
Quoting reedzone:
Noticing a new swirl near the deep convection of TD at 85W and 27N.. possible center reforming?


Buoy @26n/87w has SW winds of 20mph and rising pressure.
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Lookin like things are winding down for the season. Thanks Joe Bastardi :)
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Sorry Floodman,that was on porpoise.


LOL...
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Quoting unf97:


That is what I have been seeing all morning. There does appear to be a spin about 100-150 miles W-SW of Tampa. There is a possibility of a center reforming. I would not be surprised at all should that be the case.

If the convection stays constant, as it has been doing for most of the day to this point, I would be inclined to think that is what we are seeing. But, things can change so quickly, so we just have to wait and see how it all shakes down.
Exactly. Recon will tell us soon enough.
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That ULL swirly came thru NOLA this am with a lotta Thunder wind and Rain.

Lub'ed it.

From 12:48 this am.
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259. unf97
Quoting reedzone:
Noticing a new swirl near the deep convection of TD at 85W and 27N.. possible center reforming?


That is what I have been seeing all morning. There does appear to be a spin about 100-150 miles W-SW of Tampa. There is a possibility of a center reforming. I would not be surprised at all should that be the case.

If the convection stays constant, as it has been doing for most of the day to this point, I would be inclined to think that is what we are seeing. But, things can change so quickly, so we just have to wait and see how it all shakes down.
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A late good morning Pat...cloud cover over the Panama City area has been steady increasing all morning...broken layer at 2700agl now...not much energy...moving almost directly west at about 25 knots...no rain yet...

Looking forward to the game tomorrow night as well...

Take Care,

v/r

Jon
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Sorry Floodman,that was on porpoise.
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What an OVERHYPED season. We have had 3 storms only 1 of which should have even been called a name. The others were a stretch in my opinon. August almost half over. I'd be surprised if we ended with more than 3 hurricanes which is AVERAGE
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Quoting reedzone:
Noticing a new swirl near the deep convection of TD at 85W and 27N.. possible center reforming?

I'm not sure but it looks more promising than the one that the ULL pulled off with
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Quoting DestinJeff:


South America.


Now that is funny!!!!!
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Quoting reedzone:
August 2008 was a bigger bust to.. only 2 named storms

5 Tropical Storm EDOUARD 03-06 AUG 55 -
6 Tropical Storm FAY 15-26 AUG 55 -

We could easily reach 3 named August storms in just 48 hours, now that we have TD5 as well as a well organized 93L.
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251. 900MB
Quoting Patrap:
We Like the Pats,,I worked the Superdome Security at the first post 911 Super Bowl here Early 02,when the Pats won.


Giants!
First "Weather Super Bowl" in a long time coming soon!!!
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Quoting NASA101:


It's only a bust season if a hurricane doesn't end up in your back yard... 2008 was nothing special but IKE indeed ended up in my backyard..wasn't pretty - my first hurricane experience! :)


My first hurricane experience was Charley in 2004 when it surprised others with that turn, but I knew the trough was strong enough to push it through Orlando, per their old forecast. I was in Hurricane Bob in 1991, but was like 2 years old when that happened. I don't wish for a Hurricane to hit here like others do. I just go by obs and steering forecasts.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362
Quoting DestinJeff:


You could Google that info.

all da kids are doing it.

Very Easy.


Here ya go
LINK
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Quoting DestinJeff:


South America.


xD close.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23889
Quoting gordydunnot:
Listen to Baha she knows what she talking about when it comes to how to run a civil and interesting blog. If we can just respond to points with our points. We tend to see so much crap on tv with who ever yells the loudest thinking that makes the point. When usually it's the opposite. Look how the Doc. post he is usually right put never gets personal except to point out when he has made a misstatement and thanks the person for their correction.


Don't try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes your time and it annoys the pig.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Is 93L the well organized area of convection with rainbands, or is it the little ball farther South-West?
BTW Good Afternoon/Morning
Looks like the centre is between the two, but a bit closer 2 the larger area.

8 a.m position:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED AS A
1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N53W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT

It's not as low as low as I thought. I'm sure this was down to 1011 at one point....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21893
Having had numerous portlight discussions and conference calls with Dr. Masters,he is a Low Key but very educated Man who goes the extra mile to Listen,,and thats a learned trait many could follow.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Check out the 12z GFS at 192 hours, look off Africa. What do you see?


And there is nothing to stop that wave from developing.
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Noticing a new swirl near the deep convection of TD at 85W and 27N.. possible center reforming?
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362
Listen to Baha she knows what she talking about when it comes to how to run a civil and interesting blog. If we can just respond to points with our points. We tend to see so much crap on tv with who ever yells the loudest thinking that makes the point. When usually it's the opposite. Look how the Doc. post he is usually right put never gets personal except to point out when he has made a misstatement and thanks the person for their correction.
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Check out the 12z GFS at 192 hours, look off Africa. What do you see?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23889
Quoting reedzone:
August 2008 was a bigger bust to.. only 2 named storms

5 Tropical Storm EDOUARD 03-06 AUG 55 -
6 Tropical Storm FAY 15-26 AUG 55 -


It's only a bust season if a hurricane doesn't end up in your back yard... 2008 was nothing special but IKE indeed ended up in my backyard..wasn't pretty - my first hurricane experience! :)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 276
TD 5 looks like a broad low to me...

I don't see a closed low in the visible
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Quoting DestinJeff:


period


OMG I really DID just walk in to a kindergarten class.

I guess i should clarify i didnt mean destin but who he was quoting
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
93L on the verge of becoming a tropical depression.
I'd be surprised if the NHC doesn't mention that advisories will be initiated at 5pm at the 2pm TWO. Or they could have a special advisory. Who knows?
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Quoting efallon28:
I'll post this again for people concerned (hopeful might be a better word) about the "blob" off the SW Florida coast. It's the local doppler, which shows a steady amount of showers moving to the N around the broad center. If anybody can see any evidence of anything resembling a new center forming, your eyes are much better then mine. Cheers

Link


We said one might try to reform there, not that it was already happening. Also, I'm not sure your radar reaches far enough offshore for where I and others probably think the center would reform. It might happen, it might not, time will tell, it needs to fully separate from the ULL first.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Is 93L the well organized area of convection with rainbands, or is it the little ball farther South-West?
BTW Good Afternoon/Morning


The first one
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
93L ate away the SAL. SAL's almost non-existent in the Atlantic.
Less has been coming off because it's been raining in the Sahel the last week / 10 days....

Quoting SQUAWK:

You two make a great pair --- kinda reminds me of Abbott and Costello. LOL
Was thinking the same thing. LOL

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21893
August 2008 was a bigger bust to.. only 2 named storms

5 Tropical Storm EDOUARD 03-06 AUG 55 -
6 Tropical Storm FAY 15-26 AUG 55 -
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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