Pakistan's Katrina; 94L could develop in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 10, 2010

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The monsoon season of 2010 continues to generate havoc in Asia, as lingering rains from the latest monsoon low continue to affect hard-hit Pakistan, China, and India. At least 702 are now reported dead and 1,042 are missing in China's Gansu province, due to torrential monsoon rains that triggered a deadly landslide and extreme flooding on Sunday. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, with 500 people missing. Monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. But no country has suffered more than Pakistan, where monsoon floods have destroyed huge portions of the nation's infrastructure and killed at least 1600 people. The number of people affected or needing assistance has been estimated to be as high as 13 million people--8% of the nation's population. The disaster is the worst natural disaster in Pakistan's history, and is rightfully being called "Pakistan's Katrina."


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Monsoons: a primer
In summer, the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This occurs because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. However, monsoons have their dark side as well--hundreds of people in India and surrounding nations die in an average year in floods and landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Each summer, approximately 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in the El Niño-weakened monsoon season of 2009. This year's first monsoon depression formed on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela. A second monsoon depression arrived in Pakistan on August 3, and has brought additional heavy rains.

Are the this year's monsoon floods due to global warming?
No single weather event can be attributed to climate change, but a warming climate does load the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased over the past 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades.

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China.

Donations urgently needed
The massive humanitarian crisis in Pakistan requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of 94L from the Key West radar.

94L
A 1010 mb low pressure system (94L) near the Florida Keys is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Florida and the adjacent waters, and could become a tropical or subtropical depression as early as Wednesday. Current Key West radar shows the rotation of the storm, but the thunderstorm activity has not yet organized into low-level spiral bands. A few areas in the Keys and extreme South Florida have seen 1 - 2 inches of rain thus far from 94L. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and water temperatures are very warm, 30 - 31°C. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that 94L is forming beneath an upper-level low with plenty of dry air, and there is a substantial flow of dry, continental air wrapping into 94L. This dry air is retarding the development of 94L, and may force the storm to organize into a subtropical storm instead of a tropical storm. A subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. There is no such thing as a subtropical hurricane. If a subtropical storm intensifies enough to have hurricane force winds, than it must have become fully tropical. It usually takes at least two days for a subtropical storm to make the transition to a tropical storm.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the Gulf of Mexico this week. The storm's main problem will be dry air, and I don't expect 94L to undergo rapid development. Most of the models bring 94L ashore over Louisiana by Thursday, though the GFDL model predicts 94L could stall off the coast and not make landfall until Friday. If 94L does make landfall Thursday, it is unlikely to be a hurricane, due to all the dry air aloft in the Gulf. However, the GFDL model is predicting that the 1-day delay in landfall to Friday will allow 94L enough time to grow fully tropical and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. I think this solution is unlikely. Storms that get their start underneath a cold, dry, upper-level low very rarely attain hurricane strength in three days. A 40 - 50 mph tropical or subtropical storm at landfall Thursday or Friday is a much more reasonable forecast.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean is close to tropical depression status. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L and 94L.

Moscow hits 99°F again today
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 37°C (99°F) today, the 28th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 10 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperature have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first ten days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. Smog and smoke from wildfires continued to blanket the city today, with the Russian Meteorological Agency reporting that pollution due to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and hydrocarbons exceeding the safe limit by factors of 1.2 - 2.2. Air pollution levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level on Saturday. As I reported in yesterday's post, the heat wave has likely killed at least 15,000 people in Russia so far. There is some slight relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 31 - 33°C (88 - 91°F) Wednesday though Sunday--still 20°F above normal, but better than the 27°F above normal so far this month.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 94 and 93
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks
3) Status of La Niña

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hurricanehanna:

Lafayette here too. Welcome!
Carencro here! Party time
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Quoting aggie09:
Hi Guys! My first post, but I have followed this website for years! You guys are very informative and fun to follow! This is a link from our local news website KATC here in Lafayette..Current radar imagery of 94L

http://www.katc.com/hurricane-center/

Lafayette here too. Welcome!
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local conditions here on siesta key in sarasota ,fl are mostly cloudy,86*,winds E 20mph,gusting to 25,pressure is 1010.0,and has dropped .9 in the last 3hrs...its could get active w/gusty winds over 40 mph tonight along fl's sw coastline imo....
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Quoting cornchucker:
"Pakistan's Katrina"? That is such a ridiculous stretch of anyone's imagination. Doesn't anyone realize that the infrastructure in Pakistan compared to Louisiana is so drastically different that only somebody who was reaching for publicity would ever compare the two. I love to come read stories here and blogs but that is just simply disgusting.



Do you think maybe they compared the two because of the devastation and deaths?
sheri
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Quoting SeaMule:
well, let's analyze this from a purely NOVICE point of view.

Fact: We have a nearly stalled tropical depression in the southern GOM surrounded by a few quadrillion gallons of 90 degree water, and more than enough time for cyclogenesis. The wind shear is nominal. excellent outflow starting to develop.

Conclusion: cat 3-5 in 49 hours.

:)

Did the NHC tell you it was a TD?
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Quoting psyclone:
Looks like the dry air is not going to be as much of a problem...


go look at storm w blog. i think he explains about the dry air pretty well.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog Update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 10th, with Video

:) Hey!
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Quoting NASA101:
Personally not much interested in 94L as I think it's overly hyped due its proximity to CONUS (FL and upper Gulf coast)! Do not see 94L turning anything more than a minimal tropical storm!

Much more interesting is the potential 95L with all that warm water ahead of it in the East/West Caribbean!

well 94L is in some pretty hot water and oh yah its forcast to go torwords nola so i care
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Wow, lot's going on. The newest yellow circle: anyone have any idea which way it may head, should it develop? Looks very impressive on visible right now.


I'd say West is a good bet for the time being:

3. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting Tropicaddict:



HAHAHAHAHAHA, now that's funny! Welcome back!
Thanks...looks like I missed all the "fun"
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well, let's analyze this from a purely NOVICE point of view.

Fact: We have a nearly stalled tropical depression in the southern GOM surrounded by a few quadrillion gallons of 90 degree water, and more than enough time for cyclogenesis. The wind shear is nominal. excellent outflow starting to develop.

Conclusion: cat 3-5 in 49 hours.

:)

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Quoting twhcracker:
this is eerily like 2005 tho. because we had all these storms headed for us in the fla panhandle but they would go to nola instead. like katrina, yes. i read a thing the other day that said katrina had the worst storm surge ever. I wonder why? It wasnt a cat 5 like camille, why didnt camille have a surge bigger? I dont get that. maybe i should ask on storm w blog?


I'm no PhD but the route Katrina took AND her size and strength is what made the surge so bad. Camille came up through the Yucatan and Cuba when Katrina crossed ove FL and made the North turn. Camille WAS a much smaller but powerful (in terms of winds) storm. Hope this helps.
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And if anyone wants to donate funds to the people of Pakistan, for god sakes, please don't donate to the International Red Cross. Look at Haiti and other disaster ridden areas of the world....the red cross literally only manages to use pennies of each dollar on anything useful. So anyone reading this...I urge you to study up on NGO's and relief organizations that are actually efficient.
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Quoting wfyweather:


The size of Katrina was the main factor in its storm surge


It wasn't so much her size as the CAT5 winds that she had in the GOM that determined her surge; size had something to do with the area effected, but having ramped up like she did was what pushed all that water in front of her
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Quoting StormChaser81:
Quoting 69Viking:
Ok kids lay off Jeff. He said 40-50 mph winds were moving through Orlando, who cares if he said wind gusts, winds, or convective down bursts. It was obvious to me he was talking about short lived winds most likely the result of afternoon thunderstoms, big deal why attack him. If you don't like the way he explains things just ignore him, starting a fight in the blog is just childish, I guess schools haven't started everywhere yet.



Little late, it ended a while ago, thanx Dad for straightening us out.

Do you guys feel better about getting your late two cents in.
sorry further behind in the blog than I thought. I try to read all the post and observe all of the charts so I can try to learn from everybody.
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Personally not much interested in 94L as I think it's overly hyped due its proximity to CONUS (FL and upper Gulf coast)! Do not see 94L turning anything more than a minimal tropical storm!

Much more interesting is the potential 95L with all that warm water ahead of it in the East/West Caribbean!
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Quoting cornchucker:
"Pakistan's Katrina"? That is such a ridiculous stretch of anyone's imagination. Doesn't anyone realize that the infrastructure in Pakistan compared to Louisiana is so drastically different that only somebody who was reaching for publicity would ever compare the two. I love to come read stories here and blogs but that is just simply disgusting.


well the infrastructure in pakistan dates back to bc but nola still has cobblestone streets etc, i mean its not like nola has infrastructure like santa barbara.
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Latest high resolution ASCAT of 94L
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1008.9 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The blog "mob" will be all over the NHC if they don't designate this a TD this afternoon. Subtle message in the TWO

AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING
Only the one who think they know more than the experts.
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Basically NHC/HPC aren't favoring the GFS or CMC, putting their bets in the NAM.
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Quoting RipplinH2O:
Howdy all. Just came back on and read back a few pages. Wish I hadn't...I feel dirty



HAHAHAHAHAHA, now that's funny! Welcome back!
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Hey everyone.... Just got off the beach here in Indian Shores Florida... And a noticiably different flow in the tide now comming out of the south west instead of the north west like the day before yesterday...
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813. xcool
1008 mb now
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting twhcracker:
this is eerily like 2005 tho. because we had all these storms headed for us in the fla panhandle but they would go to nola instead. like katrina, yes. i read a thing the other day that said katrina had the worst storm surge ever. I wonder why? It wasnt a cat 5 like camille, why didnt camille have a surge bigger? I dont get that. maybe i should ask on storm w blog?


Could be wrong, but I believe it was because of a variety of factors. Katrina was a much larger storm than Camille, and was able to build up a great deal more in the way of storm surge, and over a larger area. In addition, Katrina maintained category 5 intensity so close to landfall that the energy it had accumulated in terms of surge didn't have time to settle down or disperse. That, and the water becomes very shallow and piles up easily in that little nook between Louisiana and Mississippi. That was the least scientific explanation I could have given, so you may want to wait on an expert to throw some saucy weather terminology in there :P
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Quoting twhcracker:
this is eerily like 2005 tho. because we had all these storms headed for us in the fla panhandle but they would go to nola instead. like katrina, yes. i read a thing the other day that said katrina had the worst storm surge ever. I wonder why? It wasnt a cat 5 like camille, why didnt camille have a surge bigger? I dont get that. maybe i should ask on storm w blog?


The size of Katrina was the main factor in its storm surge
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


30 mph 1009 mb Invest 94L


Thank you! Are the HH done with their mission??
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Howdy all. Just came back on and read back a few pages. Wish I hadn't...I feel dirty
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Quoting angiest:


I agree with not seeing a well-defined center on radar, but to be fair it is at the far end of the range for both Key West and Tampa radars, and where it is positioned there are no good velocity scans. Out of range for Tampa, and far out for Key West, plus there is a lot of range folding on the Key West radar.


One of the models mentioned by Dr. M computes that it may stall for a day. I guess where it stalls (and if) would be the big question. I was thinking yesterday that it would drift up the coast of FL, making for a lot of rain, but looks like models differ from my thinking. However, should it stay sub trop, then maybe a big, slow moving rain maker at the very least.
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Quoting StormChaser81:


in the graphic, 94L is supposed to make a sudden turn to the left? a sharp turn? What is gonna make that happen?
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Quoting scott39:
NHC said "Significant developement"

well have you look at the sat and vort latelly its seems its organizing at a rather quick pace
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog Update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 10th, with Video


Hey Levi! Cool. I'm heading over to check it out.
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"Pakistan's Katrina"? That is such a ridiculous stretch of anyone's imagination. Doesn't anyone realize that the infrastructure in Pakistan compared to Louisiana is so drastically different that only somebody who was reaching for publicity would ever compare the two. I love to come read stories here and blogs but that is just simply disgusting.
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Quoting Tropicaddict:


Decipher please?


The blog "mob" will be all over the NHC if they don't designate this a TD this afternoon. Subtle message in the TWO

AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AlexEmmett:

i have lost all faith in them its clearlly orgainising and the watertemps are high, even though they are saying coditions are not right for delopment, the problem is that things can change for better or worse rather quickly
NHC said "Significant developement"
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Good morning all.

Blog Update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 10th, with Video
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Quoting Bobsled27:
Camille was intense but small in size, whereas Katrina was a huge storm--at one time a Cat 5--still pushing a Cat 5 surge. That's not much of a technical explanation, but that's what I recall hearing.
because camille was much smaller in size than katrina
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
149 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

VALID AUG 10/1200 UTC THRU AUG 14/0000 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...EVALUATION OF THE 12Z CMC INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES...


...DISTURBANCE MIGRATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MX...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: A NON-GFS SOLN WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
NHC

DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE NAM DEPICT A VARIETY OF SOLNS AT THE MID-LEVELS.
MULTIPLE VORT MAXES ARE EVIDENT...ALTHOUGH A PRIMARY ONE APPEARS
TO TAKE OVER BY LATE WED WITH THE TREND BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH BETTER CONTINUITY AT THE SFC WITH
THE 12Z/06Z/00Z MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM ALL INDICATING A SUB-1005 MB
CYCLONE EDGING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY IN ITS RECENT MODEL
RUNS...ITS FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH MUCH OF THE OTHER
MODEL SOLNS AT THIS TIME. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW CENTER STRAIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO SE TX BY MIDDAY
THU. SIMILARLY...THE RECENT RUNS OF THE CMC ALSO HAVE STRUGGLED TO
KEEP WITH THE CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ONSHORE
MUCH QUICKER AND FARTHER TO THE EAST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. MUCH
OF THE REMAINING OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TAKES THE
SYSTEM INTO NEARBY LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BY 12/1200Z. IN
ADDITION...SUCH A SOLN HAS ALSO BEEN SUPPORTED BY THE DAILY MEDIUM
RANGE CONFERENCE CALL.
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Quoting Tropicaddict:


Decipher please?


30 mph 1009 mb Invest 94L
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Quoting twhcracker:


maybe family to notify. dont want them to hear it first on the news maybe. its sad. did weather cause the crash?



It does seem weather may have played a role.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Hey Cody!


Hey Matt!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 94 2010081018 BEST 0 258N 837W 25 1009 LO


Cue pitchforks and torches

i have lost all faith in them its clearlly orgainising and the watertemps are high, even though they are saying coditions are not right for delopment, the problem is that things can change for better or worse rather quickly
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Quoting angiest:


A few minutes ago ABC news said it was not clear. Granted it was a recording and I don't know when they made it.


AP just confirmed.
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Camille was intense but small in size, whereas Katrina was a huge storm--at one time a Cat 5--still pushing a Cat 5 surge. That's not much of a technical explanation, but that's what I recall hearing.
Quoting twhcracker:
this is eerily like 2005 tho. because we had all these storms headed for us in the fla panhandle but they would go to nola instead. like katrina, yes. i read a thing the other day that said katrina had the worst storm surge ever. I wonder why? It wasnt a cat 5 like camille, why didnt camille have a surge bigger? I dont get that. maybe i should ask on storm w blog?
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792. xcool
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100810 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100810 1800 100811 0600 100811 1800 100812 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.8N 83.7W 26.5N 85.3W 27.4N 87.0W 28.1N 88.5W
BAMD 25.8N 83.7W 26.4N 85.5W 27.5N 87.6W 28.7N 89.5W
BAMM 25.8N 83.7W 26.5N 85.4W 27.7N 87.1W 28.7N 88.6W
LBAR 25.8N 83.7W 26.0N 85.1W 26.6N 86.7W 27.4N 88.3W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100812 1800 100813 1800 100814 1800 100815 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.1N 89.8W 31.1N 92.1W 33.9N 93.4W 34.5N 93.7W
BAMD 29.8N 91.1W 31.9N 92.6W 34.4N 90.8W 35.5N 86.0W
BAMM 29.8N 89.8W 31.9N 90.8W 34.2N 89.1W 34.5N 85.9W
LBAR 28.0N 89.7W 29.5N 91.8W 31.5N 92.6W 33.4N 90.9W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 56KTS 58KTS
DSHP 34KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.8N LONCUR = 83.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 25.5N LONM12 = 82.7W DIRM12 = 255DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 25.9N LONM24 = 82.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting twhcracker:


maybe family to notify. dont want them to hear it first on the news maybe. its sad. did weather cause the crash?


No real indication as yet, though the weather in the area of the crash (20 miles out of Dillingham) was pretty bad at the time apparently.

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Quoting gordydunnot:
Look at the Key West radar LLc is barely drifting North. Look at satellite loops there are more swirling cloud formations than Carter has pills. In the radar loop you will see how broad the center is, not a tropical low at this time hence no td. It might go right to subtropical cyclone. Relax give it a day or two.Ull is steering most mid and high level clouds north. IMO


I agree with not seeing a well-defined center on radar, but to be fair it is at the far end of the range for both Key West and Tampa radars, and where it is positioned there are no good velocity scans. Out of range for Tampa, and far out for Key West, plus there is a lot of range folding on the Key West radar.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 94 2010081018 BEST 0 258N 837W 25 1009 LO


Cue pitchforks and torches


Decipher please?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 94 2010081018 BEST 0 258N 837W 25 1009 LO


Cue pitchforks and torches


LOL fear the 1009mb invest!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.