Pakistan's Katrina; 94L could develop in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 10, 2010

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The monsoon season of 2010 continues to generate havoc in Asia, as lingering rains from the latest monsoon low continue to affect hard-hit Pakistan, China, and India. At least 702 are now reported dead and 1,042 are missing in China's Gansu province, due to torrential monsoon rains that triggered a deadly landslide and extreme flooding on Sunday. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, with 500 people missing. Monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. But no country has suffered more than Pakistan, where monsoon floods have destroyed huge portions of the nation's infrastructure and killed at least 1600 people. The number of people affected or needing assistance has been estimated to be as high as 13 million people--8% of the nation's population. The disaster is the worst natural disaster in Pakistan's history, and is rightfully being called "Pakistan's Katrina."


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Monsoons: a primer
In summer, the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This occurs because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. However, monsoons have their dark side as well--hundreds of people in India and surrounding nations die in an average year in floods and landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Each summer, approximately 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in the El Niño-weakened monsoon season of 2009. This year's first monsoon depression formed on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela. A second monsoon depression arrived in Pakistan on August 3, and has brought additional heavy rains.

Are the this year's monsoon floods due to global warming?
No single weather event can be attributed to climate change, but a warming climate does load the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased over the past 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades.

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China.

Donations urgently needed
The massive humanitarian crisis in Pakistan requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of 94L from the Key West radar.

94L
A 1010 mb low pressure system (94L) near the Florida Keys is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Florida and the adjacent waters, and could become a tropical or subtropical depression as early as Wednesday. Current Key West radar shows the rotation of the storm, but the thunderstorm activity has not yet organized into low-level spiral bands. A few areas in the Keys and extreme South Florida have seen 1 - 2 inches of rain thus far from 94L. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and water temperatures are very warm, 30 - 31°C. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that 94L is forming beneath an upper-level low with plenty of dry air, and there is a substantial flow of dry, continental air wrapping into 94L. This dry air is retarding the development of 94L, and may force the storm to organize into a subtropical storm instead of a tropical storm. A subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. There is no such thing as a subtropical hurricane. If a subtropical storm intensifies enough to have hurricane force winds, than it must have become fully tropical. It usually takes at least two days for a subtropical storm to make the transition to a tropical storm.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the Gulf of Mexico this week. The storm's main problem will be dry air, and I don't expect 94L to undergo rapid development. Most of the models bring 94L ashore over Louisiana by Thursday, though the GFDL model predicts 94L could stall off the coast and not make landfall until Friday. If 94L does make landfall Thursday, it is unlikely to be a hurricane, due to all the dry air aloft in the Gulf. However, the GFDL model is predicting that the 1-day delay in landfall to Friday will allow 94L enough time to grow fully tropical and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. I think this solution is unlikely. Storms that get their start underneath a cold, dry, upper-level low very rarely attain hurricane strength in three days. A 40 - 50 mph tropical or subtropical storm at landfall Thursday or Friday is a much more reasonable forecast.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean is close to tropical depression status. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L and 94L.

Moscow hits 99°F again today
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 37°C (99°F) today, the 28th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 10 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperature have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first ten days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. Smog and smoke from wildfires continued to blanket the city today, with the Russian Meteorological Agency reporting that pollution due to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and hydrocarbons exceeding the safe limit by factors of 1.2 - 2.2. Air pollution levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level on Saturday. As I reported in yesterday's post, the heat wave has likely killed at least 15,000 people in Russia so far. There is some slight relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 31 - 33°C (88 - 91°F) Wednesday though Sunday--still 20°F above normal, but better than the 27°F above normal so far this month.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 94 and 93
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks
3) Status of La Niña

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Kristina40:
TD 5 doesn't look like a tropical storm it looks like a smoke ring..
The year of the tropical trash storm....so far
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Quoting rossclick:
anyone here computer savvy and have a blackberry? i need some help.. pm me


Check your WUMail
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting HappyBirthdayJFV:
morning,a Adrian, how much longer, my man?


Can you answer post 3803 for me? Thanks
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3834. scott39
StormW, Please make sense out of the last Coordinates on TD5?
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anyone here computer savvy and have a blackberry? i need some help.. pm me
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Today's Areas of Interest:

1. Tropical Depression Five
2. Invest 93L
3. Lesser Antilles Tropical Wave
4. 30W Disturbed Weather
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TD 5 doesn't look like a tropical storm it looks like a smoke ring..
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3827. scott39
Quoting IKE:

INITIAL 11/1500Z 27.8N 86.8W 25 KT


There's almost no clouds there at those coordinates....

Im thinking that was typo!
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3826. Asta
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Quoting hurricane23:
I advice many here on WU to read this great explanation on the lack of activity across the atl given by CSU'S Klotzbach.

"The average date of 2nd hurricane formation for all of these years is August 21, and you will note that five years with very high ACE values of 170 or greater did not have their 2nd hurricane formation until August 20th or later. The 2nd storm in 1961 did not form until September, and that September went on to have four major hurricanes, a record for the month. So, from a climatological perspective, it is not time to write off the TC season yet."

Here's the link to the complete article...CSU's Klotzbach Addresses Lack of Hurricane Activity

Thanks for the article Adrian!
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting hurricane23:
I advice many here on WU to read this great explanation on the lack of activity across the atl given by CSU'S Klotzbach.

"The average date of 2nd hurricane formation for all of these years is August 21, and you will note that five years with very high ACE values of 170 or greater did not have their 2nd hurricane formation until August 20th or later. The 2nd storm in 1961 did not form until September, and that September went on to have four major hurricanes, a record for the month. So, from a climatological perspective, it is not time to write off the TC season yet."

Here's the link to the complete article...CSU's Klotzbach Addresses Lack of Hurricane Activity



Vey informative - very good information -great post...

Thank you sir.
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3823. calder
Quoting btwntx08:
btw im downing my forecast to 50-60 mph now


wowzer, there's a first!
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Quoting Eagle101:


That's a negative. Much smarter now. Besides, I am not current, but I have taken a liking to the LSA's...just have to convince my wife to spend "some" of retirement nest egg...not likely...LOL!

v/r

Jon


I'm not current either, (two open hearts) but doc says i should be good in a month or two...the big issue is cash. I still love planes though.
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Quoting Kristina40:
Yep Chuck, I'm in PC and the breeze is simply wonderful. It has been so darn hot for so long this is definitely a welcome respite.


Yeah, I work at a plant in the Ascend (Solutia) site and I was out in the environment for most of my 12 hour shift yesterday. So wanted to spend some time in the office, but was not able to.
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Quoting IKE:

INITIAL 11/1500Z 27.8N 86.8W 25 KT


There's almost no clouds there at those coordinates....

With a storm this fragile there could be a CoC relocation closer to the convection. Not looking the best right now.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting Neapolitan:


If the chest-thumping fool is speaking about himself and his irrational, non-scientfic, I-refuse-to-let-the-truth-get-in-my-way ranting, then that's the most profoundly honest thing he's ever said. ;-)




Ya gotta let go of the hate....
I can argue with you till I'm blue in the face...but I don't think I dislike anything or anybody as much as you seem to dislike JB.




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I advice many here on WU to read this great explanation on the lack of activity across the atl given by CSU'S Klotzbach.

"The average date of 2nd hurricane formation for all of these years is August 21, and you will note that five years with very high ACE values of 170 or greater did not have their 2nd hurricane formation until August 20th or later. The 2nd storm in 1961 did not form until September, and that September went on to have four major hurricanes, a record for the month. So, from a climatological perspective, it is not time to write off the TC season yet."

Here's the link to the complete article...CSU's Klotzbach Addresses Lack of Hurricane Activity

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Safety issue (unusual one) associated with down trees

Good morning. Well, since hurricanes take down trees I ran into a safety issue that can occur that I never heard about. Mine is sort of hurricane related since I took down a tree earlier this year owing to the forecasts of an active year, and it turned out to be carpenter ant infested anyway so it was coming down storm or no storm.

Since there has been some flaming of the high forecasters, hey, at least in my case they have provided a social benefit. :)

Anyway, I just had a gas leak on property. Actually, this morning I am being held hostage by the local gas utility.

Cause of leak.

The tree was a junk, invasive species that shouldn't have been planted there anyway for several reasons. Tallow to be precise.

The roots grew down an started pushing against the pipe. Slow process, pipe slowly bends, gets tension put on it.

Now, when the tree dies (like, with a storm knocking it down) the roots rot. In my case we just had the 13" of rain in Houston (where is that now!) and that was the first serious rain after the tree was removed.

There is a catastrophic release of tension and it literally ripped the service line off of the main line.

I've never heard of this one and couldn't find it on the internet but it really happened.

The PV solar panel installers noticed the gas leak first, interestingly enough. It was on neighbors property in a place they do not frequent.
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3815. angiest
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


actually what about Alex that storm certainly was not a failed store and it was in the gulf of Mexico


This year's Gulf storms:
Alex - borderline cat2/3
TD 2 - failed to develop
Bonnie - died in the Gulf
TD 5 -?
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Can someone point out where the LLC might be?



Its true the storm is having issues with vertical stacking. Oragnization of the storm is very poor. There was more dry air than I had originally thought...

Jeff, if you know of a good place to stay for a family in Destin then shoot me an email of some places...I need a vacation.
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Quoting StormW:
Ouch!

September should be one heck of a month.....
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Sounds from that discussion, 'Danielle' may be even longer down the road.

Something to do with being fashionably late, methinks.
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Quoting btwntx08:

alex was in the gom it didnt fail oops
rapid intensification right around the corner.....not!
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let me rephrase that.. east of 94
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Quoting Baybuddy:


Wow... would you do it again? When I win the lottery I would like a Mooney.


That's a negative. Much smarter now. Besides, I am not current, but I have taken a liking to the LSA's...just have to convince my wife to spend "some" of retirement nest egg...not likely...LOL!

v/r

Jon
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Quoting StormW:
Ouch!




????meaning....
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3807. A4Guy
Quoting StormW:
Ouch!



So...Storm...What does all taht mean, please?
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3806. IKE

INITIAL 11/1500Z 27.8N 86.8W 25 KT


There's almost no clouds there at those coordinates....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
3805. CJ5
The storms this year are having a had time staying organized and maintaining convection, wierd. There is still most of the season left though, we shall see.
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Yep Chuck, I'm in PC and the breeze is simply wonderful. It has been so darn hot for so long this is definitely a welcome respite.
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Quoting HappyBirthdayJFV:
big ouch, storm.


What does that chart mean?
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Could be bad news for NOLA and area. More then one model is showing TD5 doing a loop de loop over LA and going back into the GOM



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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3801. skook
There is somewhat of a circulation west of Tampa, not surface but there is a spin within a spin out there.
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Quoting Kristina40:
TD 5 might be a nothingburger but I'll sure take the nice breezes that are blowing in off the Gulf today.


Totally agree, it's bearable outside today, nice SE breeze in Milton Fl
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I look at TD5 as a blessing. It will give the southeast some needed rain and cloud cover which will cool our temperatures back into the 80s instead of the upper 90s. I am completely up for cooler temperatures, especially since this summer has been too hot!
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i still see it 87w 27n. can anybody see this or is it just me:)
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3793. IKE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY LARGE AND ELONGATED.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE DEPRESSION BUT REMAIN LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER. IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...REFORMED OVERNIGHT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. A MEAN CENTER OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM RATHER THAN A WIND CENTER WAS USED FOR THE ADVISORY
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN BANDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

DUE TO THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS NOT CHANGED THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTHWEST
MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER DUE TO THE UPDATED INITIAL
POSITION.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE SPRAWLING STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE SLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOW HAVE LESS TIME OVER WATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...THE INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS IS UNLIKELY TO
ACCURATELY REFLECT THE CURRENT CYCLONE STRUCTURE.

ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONES SINCE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS TYPICALLY WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THIS IS CERTAINLY THE CASE WITH THIS
DEPRESSION. IF THE DEPRESSION SLOWS DOWN AS FORECAST AFTER
LANDFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 27.8N 86.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 28.6N 88.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 29.6N 89.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 30.4N 90.1W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 13/1200Z 31.2N 90.2W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/1200Z 32.6N 89.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 15/1200Z 34.0N 87.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
TD 5 might be a nothingburger but I'll sure take the nice breezes that are blowing in off the Gulf today.
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Quoting StormW:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SYNOPSIS AUG. 11, 2010 ISSUED 8:20 A.M.

thanks for the informative update! Gotta love that dry air! :)
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
3789. IKE
...LARGE DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 11
Location: 27.8N 86.8W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

...LARGE DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 86.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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