Pakistan's Katrina; 94L could develop in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 10, 2010

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The monsoon season of 2010 continues to generate havoc in Asia, as lingering rains from the latest monsoon low continue to affect hard-hit Pakistan, China, and India. At least 702 are now reported dead and 1,042 are missing in China's Gansu province, due to torrential monsoon rains that triggered a deadly landslide and extreme flooding on Sunday. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, with 500 people missing. Monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. But no country has suffered more than Pakistan, where monsoon floods have destroyed huge portions of the nation's infrastructure and killed at least 1600 people. The number of people affected or needing assistance has been estimated to be as high as 13 million people--8% of the nation's population. The disaster is the worst natural disaster in Pakistan's history, and is rightfully being called "Pakistan's Katrina."


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Monsoons: a primer
In summer, the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This occurs because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. However, monsoons have their dark side as well--hundreds of people in India and surrounding nations die in an average year in floods and landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Each summer, approximately 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in the El Niño-weakened monsoon season of 2009. This year's first monsoon depression formed on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela. A second monsoon depression arrived in Pakistan on August 3, and has brought additional heavy rains.

Are the this year's monsoon floods due to global warming?
No single weather event can be attributed to climate change, but a warming climate does load the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased over the past 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades.

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China.

Donations urgently needed
The massive humanitarian crisis in Pakistan requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of 94L from the Key West radar.

94L
A 1010 mb low pressure system (94L) near the Florida Keys is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Florida and the adjacent waters, and could become a tropical or subtropical depression as early as Wednesday. Current Key West radar shows the rotation of the storm, but the thunderstorm activity has not yet organized into low-level spiral bands. A few areas in the Keys and extreme South Florida have seen 1 - 2 inches of rain thus far from 94L. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and water temperatures are very warm, 30 - 31°C. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that 94L is forming beneath an upper-level low with plenty of dry air, and there is a substantial flow of dry, continental air wrapping into 94L. This dry air is retarding the development of 94L, and may force the storm to organize into a subtropical storm instead of a tropical storm. A subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. There is no such thing as a subtropical hurricane. If a subtropical storm intensifies enough to have hurricane force winds, than it must have become fully tropical. It usually takes at least two days for a subtropical storm to make the transition to a tropical storm.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the Gulf of Mexico this week. The storm's main problem will be dry air, and I don't expect 94L to undergo rapid development. Most of the models bring 94L ashore over Louisiana by Thursday, though the GFDL model predicts 94L could stall off the coast and not make landfall until Friday. If 94L does make landfall Thursday, it is unlikely to be a hurricane, due to all the dry air aloft in the Gulf. However, the GFDL model is predicting that the 1-day delay in landfall to Friday will allow 94L enough time to grow fully tropical and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. I think this solution is unlikely. Storms that get their start underneath a cold, dry, upper-level low very rarely attain hurricane strength in three days. A 40 - 50 mph tropical or subtropical storm at landfall Thursday or Friday is a much more reasonable forecast.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean is close to tropical depression status. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L and 94L.

Moscow hits 99°F again today
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 37°C (99°F) today, the 28th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 10 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperature have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first ten days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. Smog and smoke from wildfires continued to blanket the city today, with the Russian Meteorological Agency reporting that pollution due to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and hydrocarbons exceeding the safe limit by factors of 1.2 - 2.2. Air pollution levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level on Saturday. As I reported in yesterday's post, the heat wave has likely killed at least 15,000 people in Russia so far. There is some slight relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 31 - 33°C (88 - 91°F) Wednesday though Sunday--still 20°F above normal, but better than the 27°F above normal so far this month.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 94 and 93
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks
3) Status of La Niña

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting traumaboyy:
There does not appear to be much of a storm out there to talk about....I am driving to NOLA thursday and wonder if it is even going to rain now.
Don't be fooled by current appearances. I've been noticing this season's storms seem to unravel at night and expand by day. U r bound to get some rain, prolly torrential at times.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Tell me when you figure out how two imaginary things equal -1 :(

I proved to my instructor that was j=mc2

I got the rest of the day of to go and "relax"


Hmmm What is J? What did you do with E?
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2936. Levi32
Quoting traumaboyy:
There does not appear to be much of a storm out there to talk about....I am driving to NOLA thursday and wonder if it is even going to rain now.


Probably will, but I'd still drive.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
2935. will45
Quoting Levi32:


I've heard of it because that's what Weather456 uses to make his graphics, but I don't know if it will draw on your desktop screen. As far as editing images to post I do pretty well dabbling with paint.net, but for a live video I'd need it to draw on the screen and stuff.


ok doubt if this would work for that
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Quoting Levi32:


Thanks for the kind words. But first thing's first I have to get through school and 4 years of Calculus and physics lol.


What? Your not in AP Calc now...I would be surprised if you were not already. Calc and University Physics are the engineer/scientist's cross to bear...so to speak. I am quite sure you will do just fine.

v/r

Jon
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Who's bill??


that was just wrong...
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2932. Levi32
Quoting will45:


Levi you ever heard of Paint Shop Pro? i can get you a free copy of that i think. Not sure if it would be what you need tho.


I've heard of it because that's what Weather456 uses to make his graphics, but I don't know if it will draw on your desktop screen. As far as editing images to post I do pretty well dabbling with paint.net, but for a live video I'd need it to draw on the screen and stuff.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Quoting traumaboyy:


Thats fine man...you did a great job too....pink is a very a interesting choice....my daughter's favorite color...lol
I think American girls are brainwashed into thinking pink is their fave colour... lol
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Quoting Levi32:


Thanks for the kind words. But first thing's first I have to get through school and 4 years of Calculus and physics lol.


Tell me when you figure out how two imaginary things equal -1 :(

I proved to my instructor that j=mc2

I got the rest of the day of to go and "relax"
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Quoting Levi32:


Oh figures lol :) I tried to find another color but ya....pink was the only one that really fit the bill lol.


Who's bill??
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Quoting Levi32:


Oh gosh what did I do now lol? Pink was the best color I could find that contrasts well enough with the majority of my maps lol.
Agreed. I'll let someone else have the fun of explaining the connection between the pink and the closet.... lol
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2927. Levi32
Quoting BahaHurican:
Pink is fine. Don't u know, it's the new red.... lol

I was wondering about switching. Even in a literal drawing situation switching pens on the fly is a potential distraction. It's different if u have "predrawn" stuff.


Ah yuck....that's what a written blog with my old graphics was for. I have to think on the fly in my videos. I set up the images I want to talk about and then just click record. Pre-drawn would cage me in too much lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
am pulling the plug on 93L


93L RIP


good night


well see what TD 5 looks like a round noon
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2925. Levi32
Quoting traumaboyy:


Thats fine man...you did a great job too....pink is a very a interesting choice....my daughter's favorite color...lol


Oh figures lol :) I tried to find another color but ya....pink was the only one that really fit the bill lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
There does not appear to be much of a storm out there to talk about....I am driving to NOLA thursday and wonder if it is even going to rain now.
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol.

Well if I could use hotkeys to switch pen color I would, and I looked into that, but you have no idea how hard it was to find the drawing program I have lol. I have to save it too as the maker has discontinued updates. I can't find anything free that gives enough options to draw properly on a transparent layer over the screen (that was hard enough to find) plus easy color-switching and all those cool things. As it is I'd have to bring up the program window every time I wanted to switch colors, which is not very efficient and a waste of time to the viewer.

And by the way, if anyone has a problem with my amazing pink cursor and how it shows up in contrast on the screen, just let me know lol.
Pink is fine. Don't u know, it's the new red.... lol

I was wondering about switching. Even in a literal drawing situation switching pens on the fly is a potential distraction. It's different if u have "predrawn" stuff.
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2922. Levi32
Quoting Eagle101:


Levi...you have quite a future ahead of you young man...thank you for all you do. After you are done with grad school, don't let them wrap you around the research axle for long...you are far to talented to stay hidden in university dungens...

Very Respectfully,

Jon


Thanks for the kind words. But first thing's first I have to get through school and 4 years of Calculus and physics lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
2921. will45
Quoting Levi32:


Lol.

Well if I could use hotkeys to switch pen color I would, and I looked into that, but you have no idea how hard it was to find the drawing program I have lol. I have to save it too as the maker has discontinued updates. I can't find anything free that gives enough options to draw properly on a transparent layer over the screen (that was hard enough to find) plus easy color-switching and all those cool things. As it is I'd have to bring up the program window every time I wanted to switch colors, which is not very efficient and a waste of time to the viewer.

And by the way, if anyone has a problem with my amazing pink cursor and how it shows up in contrast on the screen, just let me know lol.


Levi you ever heard of Paint Shop Pro? i can get you a free copy of that i think. Not sure if it would be what you need tho.
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2920. xcool
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Quoting Levi32:


Oh gosh what did I do now lol? Pink was the best color I could find that contrasts well enough with the majority of my maps lol.


Thats fine man...you did a great job too....pink is a very a interesting choice....my daughter's favorite color...lol
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Quoting Levi32:


It's getting wetter but I think it's still dealing with some dry air from the ULL that is squeezed against it. The upper environment is also somewhat confluent on the southern flank of the high to the north and that isn't a great situation for convective development. The closer the storm gets to landfall, the better able it will be to produce convection, at least if things evolve as they should.


Levi...you have quite a future ahead of you young man...thank you for all you do. After you are done with grad school, don't let them wrap you around the research axle for long...you are far to talented to stay hidden in university dungens...

Very Respectfully,

Jon
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2917. Levi32
Quoting traumaboyy:


LOL...can't believe you went with there Levi....someone knocking on the closet door again??


Oh gosh what did I do now lol? Pink was the best color I could find that contrasts well enough with the majority of my maps lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
2916. gator23
Quoting pottery:
Well...
things are quiet in the Atlantic, and TD5 is looking a little dry right now.
Time for bed.
Keep well, all. And safe.

There are going to be alot of disappointed NOLA/wish/disastercasters tomorrow
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Quoting pottery:

Hmmm!
I will leave it......
+ 1

I see u are getting ready to take another tropical hit for the Wundercause.... lol
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Quoting sflawavedude:
93l going poof out there not developing any. td 5 doesnt look the best storm wise but well established banding features. wait and see on strength...:)


93L may still develop when it reaches higher latitudes. But for now, you're right.
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol.

Well if I could use hotkeys to switch pen color I would, and I looked into that, but you have no idea how hard it was to find the drawing program I have lol. I have to save it too as the maker has discontinued updates. I can't find anything free that gives enough options to draw properly on a transparent layer over the screen (that was hard enough to find) plus easy color-switching and all those cool things. As it is I'd have to bring up the program window every time I wanted to switch colors, which is not very efficient and a waste of time to the viewer.

And by the way, if anyone has a problem with my amazing pink cursor and how it shows up in contrast on the screen, just let me know lol.


LOL...can't believe you went with there Levi....someone knocking on the closet door again??
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Quoting Levi32:


Hey now I could easily talk for 30-60 minutes :P
LOL this is true... Well paragraphed; I like the order of importance sequencing.... makes the 16 days out scenario not only more plausible but also more ominous....
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2911. pottery
Well...
things are quiet in the Atlantic, and TD5 is looking a little dry right now.
Time for bed.
Keep well, all. And safe.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25652
2910. Levi32
Quoting BahaHurican:
Levi, can u use multicoloured pens to differentiate between warm and cold lows? Just curious. . . .

Overall very perspicacious... and on the ensemble u were using at the end I kept noting the 1016 mb line was just around the tropic of Cancer, which is not good for the Bahamas and East FL....

I don't think u need the music, but if u get something, do get something ominous sounding.... lol


Lol.

Well if I could use hotkeys to switch pen color I would, and I looked into that, but you have no idea how hard it was to find the drawing program I have lol. I have to save it too as the maker has discontinued updates. I can't find anything free that gives enough options to draw properly on a transparent layer over the screen (that was hard enough to find) plus easy color-switching and all those cool things. As it is I'd have to bring up the program window every time I wanted to switch colors, which is not very efficient and a waste of time to the viewer.

And by the way, if anyone has a problem with my amazing pink cursor and how it shows up in contrast on the screen, just let me know lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
2909. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


It's getting wetter but I think it's still dealing with some dry air from the ULL that is squeezed against it. The upper environment is also somewhat confluent on the southern flank of the high to the north and that isn't a great situation for convective development. The closer the storm gets to landfall, the better able it will be to produce convection, at least if things evolve as they should.
thanks
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2908. Seawall
Quoting thelmores:


Just get a job working for the federal government, and your life will be set! Job security, wonderful benefits...... the only sector of the economy which is growing!


U got that right, if I wasn't so old.. LOL
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2907. Levi32
Quoting VoodooRue:
Hey Levi. I really appreciate your Tropical Tidbits on YouTube. Just wanted to say thanks for posting.

>>back to lurking now<<


Thanks, I'm glad you enjoy them :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
2906. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Levi, I dont understand the lack of convection with TD5. It looks very moist where its at.


It's getting wetter but I think it's still dealing with some dry air from the ULL that is squeezed against it. The upper environment is also somewhat confluent on the southern flank of the high to the north and that isn't a great situation for convective development. The closer the storm gets to landfall, the better able it will be to produce convection, at least if things evolve as they should.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Levi, can u use multicoloured pens to differentiate between warm and cold lows? Just curious. . . .

Overall very perspicacious... and on the ensemble u were using at the end I kept noting the 1016 mb line was just around the tropic of Cancer, which is not good for the Bahamas and East FL....

I don't think u need the music, but if u get something, do get something ominous sounding.... lol
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LOL Orca, I was referencing Storm calling you a "Big Fish"...You are obviously a mammal...
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Hey Levi. I really appreciate your Tropical Tidbits on YouTube. Just wanted to say thanks for posting.

>>back to lurking now<<
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93l going poof out there not developing any. td 5 doesnt look the best storm wise but well established banding features. wait and see on strength...:)
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Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO.... hmmm
It was either a compliment.. or your calling me fat... hmm either could be right :)


I'm not s ure which one it was either...

lol!
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Wow...looks like I got here just in time for the cage match...who's in the blue trunks??
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2899. gator23
Quoting scott39:
Levi, I dont understand the lack of convection with TD5. It looks very moist where its at.

itg looks like crap
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Quoting Seawall:
Here on the SW LA and SE TX border....
We ask these questions.. and meant to be funny...
Uh, let's see, getting laid off in two weeks. Does this mean the storms go east or west? Do we evac north? (South ain't an option, that's the Gulf) Where does the money come from to leave? Ooops, wait, we have gas for the generator, so we stay? Leave? Gotta keep the computer up for our weekly unemployment claim...
Crap, do we leave, do we stay? ROF... Wait, we have no health insurance, just cancelled the ONSTAR on the vehicle..
And there is Global warming... Oh wait, that's what comes after a direct hit by a Hurricane... no power so you are hot, and it's globally hot all around you. That is global warming... LOL

And for the gentleman that asked about how many hurricanes?
Rita, Ike, and Humberto.
Humberto knocked down a fish bowl. Ike caused wind driven water into the bricks and flooded a bedroom.
And Rita - Lost damn near every outside structure and every tree in site, and I stayed through that one. It was a heller.


Just get a job working for the federal government, and your life will be set! Job security, wonderful benefits...... the only sector of the economy which is growing!
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2897. pottery
Quoting gordydunnot:
Pottery I was never concerned about your actions. Because I know you are not in the dirty deeds and there done dirt cheap crowd.

Why, thank you!
LOL to that!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25652
Quoting Kristina40:


I enjoy your commentary and graphics very much you big mammal you.


ROFLMAO.... hmmm
It was either a compliment.. or your calling me fat... hmm either could be right :)
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2895. smuldy
Quoting weatherblog:
I have a question for anybody that knows South Florida weather. Tomorrow I have an important day that takes place outside, so I was wondering if you guys think it'll be a bad day. It says 50% for storms/rain, but should I cancel it or is it not as likely as it seems? Thanks! BTW, I'm in Broward County. :)
I'm no meteorologist by any means but no one else answered your question. I've lived here 4 of the past 5 years, 50% usually means good chance for thunderstorms to flare up at some point, usually heat generated. In this case they may be looking at the 5L system as the source or may be saying heat generated. In either case up there in Broward I would say short lived sporadic os more likely unless 5L moves due north, so if a quick shower/tstorm will hinder you, better safe than sorry, if you can survive one or a couple of those go right ahead. Again just an opinion. Been pretty bad down here rain wise all day in Dade and they said to expect similar things tomorrow, so I would go based on todays weather for Broward and exxpect the same too or read hourly details on the forecast. Steady 50% all day means likely day long event, if it spikes and troughs seasonal tstorms so you should be able to plan around and might have none.
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Quoting extreme236:
Im sorry but 05L is not subtropical end of story. AMSU microwave passes are reliable and they show this as a warm cored system. There isn't much evidence to support a cold cored system than just some models thinking it's one. They've been wrong about core temperatures before.


Recon found a Tropical Depression, not a Subtropical Depression.. That should be more then enough evidence.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7439
2893. pottery
Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya, he always has a smart as- comment to make. I was simply having a conversation about the CPE....just because i posted 5 out 7 models that differ with ones opinion i guess i am wrong. Amazing the amount of emails i get about this person...funny!

Hmmm!
I will leave it......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25652
Quoting Orcasystems:


I actually never said a thing to you.. or for that matter about you. Maybe you should Focus on something else.


I enjoy your commentary and graphics very much you big mammal you.
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2891. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


Convection is the definition of a TC. You can't have a TC without convection. Convection represents the upward motion of air, condensing water vapor into liquid and releasing latent heat which warms the air column, promoting more rising air and lower pressures at the surface. Through intensification of this cycle, a tropical cyclone strengthens.
Levi, I dont understand the lack of convection with TD5. It looks very moist where its at.
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Im sorry but 05L is not subtropical end of story. AMSU microwave passes are reliable and they show this as a warm cored system. There isn't much evidence to support a cold cored system than just some models thinking it's one. They've been wrong about core temperatures before.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Interesting!

Levi32: Weak Tropical Storm

Drak: Strong Tropical Storm/Minimal Hurricane

StormChaser2007: Minimal Hurricane

Storm: Weak Tropical Storm


Reed: 50-60 mph. TS
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7439
2888. Levi32
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
awesome video levi, and very interesting info about the next 16 days. Was this the same setup for hurricanes like hugo in SC 89' Fran in NC 96', and Floyd in NC 99'?!?!?


It's a pattern that can lead to US landfalls. It shares similarities with many storms that made landfall on the SE coast.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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