Pakistan's Katrina; 94L could develop in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 10, 2010

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The monsoon season of 2010 continues to generate havoc in Asia, as lingering rains from the latest monsoon low continue to affect hard-hit Pakistan, China, and India. At least 702 are now reported dead and 1,042 are missing in China's Gansu province, due to torrential monsoon rains that triggered a deadly landslide and extreme flooding on Sunday. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, with 500 people missing. Monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. But no country has suffered more than Pakistan, where monsoon floods have destroyed huge portions of the nation's infrastructure and killed at least 1600 people. The number of people affected or needing assistance has been estimated to be as high as 13 million people--8% of the nation's population. The disaster is the worst natural disaster in Pakistan's history, and is rightfully being called "Pakistan's Katrina."


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Monsoons: a primer
In summer, the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This occurs because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. However, monsoons have their dark side as well--hundreds of people in India and surrounding nations die in an average year in floods and landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Each summer, approximately 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in the El Niño-weakened monsoon season of 2009. This year's first monsoon depression formed on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela. A second monsoon depression arrived in Pakistan on August 3, and has brought additional heavy rains.

Are the this year's monsoon floods due to global warming?
No single weather event can be attributed to climate change, but a warming climate does load the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased over the past 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades.

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China.

Donations urgently needed
The massive humanitarian crisis in Pakistan requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of 94L from the Key West radar.

94L
A 1010 mb low pressure system (94L) near the Florida Keys is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Florida and the adjacent waters, and could become a tropical or subtropical depression as early as Wednesday. Current Key West radar shows the rotation of the storm, but the thunderstorm activity has not yet organized into low-level spiral bands. A few areas in the Keys and extreme South Florida have seen 1 - 2 inches of rain thus far from 94L. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and water temperatures are very warm, 30 - 31°C. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that 94L is forming beneath an upper-level low with plenty of dry air, and there is a substantial flow of dry, continental air wrapping into 94L. This dry air is retarding the development of 94L, and may force the storm to organize into a subtropical storm instead of a tropical storm. A subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. There is no such thing as a subtropical hurricane. If a subtropical storm intensifies enough to have hurricane force winds, than it must have become fully tropical. It usually takes at least two days for a subtropical storm to make the transition to a tropical storm.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the Gulf of Mexico this week. The storm's main problem will be dry air, and I don't expect 94L to undergo rapid development. Most of the models bring 94L ashore over Louisiana by Thursday, though the GFDL model predicts 94L could stall off the coast and not make landfall until Friday. If 94L does make landfall Thursday, it is unlikely to be a hurricane, due to all the dry air aloft in the Gulf. However, the GFDL model is predicting that the 1-day delay in landfall to Friday will allow 94L enough time to grow fully tropical and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. I think this solution is unlikely. Storms that get their start underneath a cold, dry, upper-level low very rarely attain hurricane strength in three days. A 40 - 50 mph tropical or subtropical storm at landfall Thursday or Friday is a much more reasonable forecast.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean is close to tropical depression status. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L and 94L.

Moscow hits 99°F again today
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 37°C (99°F) today, the 28th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 10 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperature have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first ten days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. Smog and smoke from wildfires continued to blanket the city today, with the Russian Meteorological Agency reporting that pollution due to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and hydrocarbons exceeding the safe limit by factors of 1.2 - 2.2. Air pollution levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level on Saturday. As I reported in yesterday's post, the heat wave has likely killed at least 15,000 people in Russia so far. There is some slight relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 31 - 33°C (88 - 91°F) Wednesday though Sunday--still 20°F above normal, but better than the 27°F above normal so far this month.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 94 and 93
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks
3) Status of La Niña

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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3938. hurricanejunky
6:12 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
I would really watch for something to form off SW FL as there is lots of 850 vort and convection left behind TD 5 and it's this that maybe causing TD 5's demise. Looks like a wet and stormy day for west FL.


YAY!!! Finally...much needed rain...
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
3937. hurricanejunky
6:12 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morn HJ!

Nice site!


Thanks Doug. A little behind on WU...work and web design require lots of time. UGH!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
3936. hydrus
5:00 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting errantlythought:
My opinion on the current situation:

Vorticity shows three apparent spikes in the 850 range. One off barataria bay, another the current LLC mid gulf, and a broader area to the east of the 'current' LLC, closer to florida.

The larger area of vort near florida's western coastline appears to be overtaking the former LLC and is likely a MLC descending.

I'd put forward that this seems to be the case by the distinct sphere shape that is associated with the current Low shown in this vort map:




Close inspection of the gradient shading on the current Low shows that there does seem to be a difference between the two adjacent areas:




Thus I believe what we are seeing is not a broad low pressure area, but a convection train between the currently dying low, and the ULL across the area. As the new proposed center tightens off the florida coast, I think we'll see this moisture train lessen and end, and much like Johnny, 05 will be alive.

But that's just my opinion. :P
That was a very good post. If you are not a Met, you should be.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19595
3935. errantlythought
4:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
My opinion on the current situation:

Vorticity shows three apparent spikes in the 850 range. One off barataria bay, another the current LLC mid gulf, and a broader area to the east of the 'current' LLC, closer to florida.

The larger area of vort near florida's western coastline appears to be overtaking the former LLC and is likely a MLC descending.

I'd put forward that this seems to be the case by the distinct sphere shape that is associated with the current Low shown in this vort map:




Close inspection of the gradient shading on the current Low shows that there does seem to be a difference between the two adjacent areas:




Thus I believe what we are seeing is not a broad low pressure area, but a convection train between the currently dying low, and the ULL across the area. As the new proposed center tightens off the florida coast, I think we'll see this moisture train lessen and end, and much like Johnny, 05 will be alive.

But that's just my opinion. :P
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
3934. CaneHunter031472
4:16 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
I think we all got it wrong at the beginning when the season's forecast for number of systems came out. They were talking about storms that would fizzle or go poooFF!! not actual storms or hurricanes. If we see it this way they have been very accurate in their fizzlecast and it is indeed an above average season for storms going pooff!!
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 163
3933. Mixed
3:52 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Looks like the wave east of the lesser antilies is moving nw probably wont get too much activity here in stlucia
Member Since: August 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
3932. Mixed
3:50 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting BahaHurican:
Welcome to the blog. Always good to see another Caribbean blogger. Looks like u guys are going to get some wx from that Twave that's about 400-500 miles E of u.....


Yeah i havent seen as much lightning and thunder as a couple nights ago in a while, wonder how it will be later on.
Member Since: August 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
3930. BahaHurican
3:40 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid:
Welcome Mixer, I'm at the other end of the bowling alley, I'd like to call the Caribbean Sea, in the Cancun area. Nice to have someone on the front line, so to speak where the bowling ball hits first! Enjoy!

PS my quote button isn't working again. Sorry.
BTW, did u ever get something worked out for image posting? I got on the blog the other night [I guess] after u had gone off...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
3929. BahaHurican
3:37 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting Mixed:
hey guys I have been on this site for a while now in background shame to say but i find the site to be very informative, so i just signed up, I am from St. Lucia in the lesser antilles which looks like it could get a bit stormy later, well it has been for a couple days now heavy lightning, thunder and moderate rain. Its calm now but it looks like it will get worst tonight. Anyways good to be here......
Welcome to the blog. Always good to see another Caribbean blogger. Looks like u guys are going to get some wx from that Twave that's about 400-500 miles E of u.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
3928. AllStar17
3:36 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
3925. BahaHurican
3:31 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid:
Q: What do you get when you cross the start of the hurricane season (except Alex) and a Blackberry?

A: A "FizzleBerry"

And now, with nothing better to do, I will attempt to make a cocktail that will bear the above namesake...wish me luck. Rum or Vodka?
Dude.... it's 11:30 a.m..... 10:30 where u are.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
3924. severstorm
3:31 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


You and me both.

Yep heres my chance for the rain gauge to catch up to yours. Really interesting to watch whats going on in the gulf and its got alot of people scraching there heads
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
3921. Minnemike
3:30 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



The upper air invironment. It has all-along been a detriment to this thing organizing. The wv loops from 48 hrs ago thu now tell the story:

The upper air low moved across Fl ( moistened up as it did) westward to where it is now (sw of NOLA about 100 miles or so.

Low level spin meanwhile, has been trying to "go" off the sw fl coast, but cant gain no traction. Now it seems the ULL has helped to lower the pressures a little and helping to create a much broader circulation... That what the TPC is calling the center now ..

yeah, that's what i meant... well put Doug
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
3920. BahaHurican
3:30 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


You should definitely ask for your money back.

Oh, wait... ;-)


Link
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
3918. thermoclined
3:29 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:
if u havent look at 3883 plz do
I see a big plate of crow!
Member Since: July 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
3917. MiamiHurricanes09
3:28 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
3916. NOLAInTheEye
3:27 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Trying to figure out how to post an image. Dialog box asks for the URL. Where should I upload it?
Member Since: August 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
3915. Prgal
3:26 PM GMT on August 11, 2010


NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
3913. BahaHurican
3:25 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Top of the mornin' to ya....

Quoting wayfaringstranger:
I had posted yday that TD5 would have to really step it up in the next 24 hrs and that last night was critical.

Seems like the storms prefer the daylight this year.
I've been saying for weeks that there seems to be some inversion of normal patterns, so that storms seem at their best in the early afternoon and at their worst in the early morning, quite the opposite of what is expected. I'm rather curious as to why that is happening....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
3912. CybrTeddy
3:25 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
I think the center 'might' be at 27N 84W. That's where the 850 mb vort is strongest and would make TD5 more organized. There's little to no vort where the NHC has the current COC.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
3911. DestinDome
3:25 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Thanks Fish. That is what I was assuming.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
3910. claire4385
3:25 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am getting the new Crackberry.. which is going to make it twice as bad :(

I need to become unplugged I think..or an intervention


My husband complains I stay on it WAY too much lol...I would be lost without my iPhone
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
3909. PensacolaDoug
3:25 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting cyclonekid:
Good Morning!

What happened to TD 5? It looked gorgeous yesterday; now it just looks like a bundled up mess. I thought it would be Daneille by now. Instead its weakening. Can anybody tell me what happened?



The upper air invironment. It has all-along been a detriment to this thing organizing. The wv loops from 48 hrs ago thu now tell the story:

The upper air low moved across Fl ( moistened up as it did) westward to where it is now (sw of NOLA about 100 miles or so.

Low level spin meanwhile, has been trying to "go" off the sw fl coast, but cant gain no traction. Now it seems the ULL has helped to lower the pressures a little and helping to create a much broader circulation... That what the TPC is calling the center now ..

Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
3907. Orcasystems
3:24 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Last update for awhile.. off to work.. or at least to fake being at work :) Nice circular model tracks on some.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
3906. 69Viking
3:24 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Can someone post up a good visible link of the GOM or preferably TD5, the NHC's visible sucks!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
3905. Prgal
3:24 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
3904. aspectre
3:23 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Since this storm crossed Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, 94L had been headed toward Havana,Cuba then Freeport,Texas, turned into TropicalDepressionFive while heading toward IntracoastalCity,Louisiana, and headed toward PortArthur,Texas, Destin,Florida and Galveston,Texas.
After TD5 had headed toward Waveland,Mississippi then IntracoastalCity (again)
- -Time and Date - - - - Location
11pmEDT 10Aug10 - 26.2N84.2W
02amEDT 11Aug10 - 26.3N84.5W
05amEDT 11Aug10 - 26.8N85.1W
07amCDT 11Aug10 - 27.1N85.8W
10amCDT 11Aug10 - 27.8N86.8W
...TD5 has been heading toward NewOrleans,Louisiana
Copy&paste 26.0N84.1W-26.2N84.2W, 26.2N84.2W-26.3N84.5W, 26.3N84.5W-26.8N85.1W, 26.8N85.1W-27.1N85.8W, 27.1N85.8W-27.8N86.8W, 30.3n89.5w, 29.6n92.1w, 27.8N86.8W-29.7n89.6w into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
3903. SouthDadeFish
3:23 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting DestinDome:
I don't understand why the center would be pushed so far to the west so quickly. Shouldn't it be closer to the spiraling convection to the East?
Because the center is very broad and the NHC used coordinated in the average of the broad center. The center could still reform farther east.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
3902. claire4385
3:22 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid:
Q: What do you get when you cross the start of the hurricane season (except Alex) and a Blackberry?

A: A "FizzleBerry"

And now, with nothing better to do, I will attempt to make a cocktail that will bear the above namesake...wish me luck. Rum or Vodka?


Vodka! :-D
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
3901. MiamiHurricanes09
3:22 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
From NHC: VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY LARGE AND ELONGATED.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE DEPRESSION BUT REMAIN LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER. IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...REFORMED OVERNIGHT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. A MEAN CENTER OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM RATHER THAN A WIND CENTER WAS USED FOR THE ADVISORY
POSITION.
Oh, ok. Thanks!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
3898. SouthDadeFish
3:21 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Yes ma'am!
Hey Storm, I'm curious as to what you think the probability is of the the center reforming and tightening up under the current main convective mass? And if so, how long do you think until this will happen?
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
3897. DestinDome
3:21 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
I don't understand why the center would be pushed so far to the west so quickly. Shouldn't it be closer to the spiraling convection to the East?
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
3894. hurricanehanna
3:20 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Yes ma'am!

Rhut rho.... time to apply the Head On!
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
3893. StormChaser81
3:20 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Not long to landfall if there anything left.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
3892. SouthDadeFish
3:20 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm confused! Did the NHC mess up on the coordinates or something because there isn't anything where the supposed center is? Anyways, 93L is on the verge of becoming 06L.

From NHC: VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY LARGE AND ELONGATED.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE DEPRESSION BUT REMAIN LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER. IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...REFORMED OVERNIGHT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. A MEAN CENTER OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM RATHER THAN A WIND CENTER WAS USED FOR THE ADVISORY
POSITION.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
3891. srada
3:19 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Good Morning Everyone..

boy TD5 looks awful on satellite which is a good thing..we definetly dont need a bad storm in the gulf or elsewhere..

might be looking at some homebrew potential off the carolina coast if Im reading this right

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRECEDING A COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY CAUTIONARY HEADLINE
CRITERIA UNLESS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS.
THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED HOWEVER. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY BY
FRIDAY AND THE EFFECTS ON THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE CONSIDERABLE.
DESPITE THIS UNCERTAINTY THE NEARNESS OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP
WIND SPEEDS AND THUS SEAS RATHER LOW.
Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
3889. Mixed
3:18 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
hey guys I have been on this site for a while now in background shame to say but i find the site to be very informative, so i just signed up, I am from St. Lucia in the lesser antilles which looks like it could get a bit stormy later, well it has been for a couple days now heavy lightning, thunder and moderate rain. Its calm now but it looks like it will get worst tonight. Anyways good to be here......
Member Since: August 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
3888. GeauxGirl
3:18 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Could someone post a radar or satellite and put a circle around the "center" of TD5. My novice eyes can't find it. TIA.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 105

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.