Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:13 PM GMT on August 09, 2010

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The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 brought temperatures of 37°C (99°F) to Moscow today, and smog and smoke from wildfires blanketed the city for a sixth straight day. Air pollution levels were 2 - 3 times the maximum safe level today, and peaked on Saturday, when when carbon monoxide hit 6.5 times the safe level. The death toll from heat and air pollution increased to approximately 330 people per day in Moscow in recent days, according to the head of the Moscow health department. Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, said excess deaths in Moscow in July averaged 155 per day, compared to 2009. The heat wave began on June 27. These grim statistics suggest that in Moscow alone, the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 has likely killed at least 7,000 people so far. A plot of the departure of July 2010 temperatures from average (Figure 1) shows that the area of Russia experiencing incredible heat is vast, and that regions southeast of Moscow have the hottest, relative to average. Moscow is the largest city in Russia, with a population just over ten million, but there are several other major cities in the heat wave region. These include Saint Petersburg, Russia's 2nd most populous city (4.6 million), and Nizhny Novgorod, Russia's 5th most populous city (1.3 million people.) Thus, the Russian population affected by extreme heat is at least double the population of Moscow, and the death toll in Russia from the 2010 heat wave is probably at least 15,000, and may be much higher. The only comparable heat wave in European history occurred in 2003, and killed an estimated 40,000 - 50,000 people, mostly in France and Italy. While the temperatures in that heat wave were not as extreme as the Russian heat wave, the nighttime low temperatures in the 2003 heat wave were considerably higher. This tends to add to heat stress and causes a higher death toll. I expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, it may rival the 2003 European heat wave as the deadliest heat wave in world history.


Figure 1. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Worst Russian heat wave in 1,000 years of history
The temperature at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport hit 99°F (37°C) today. Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past two weeks. Temperatures the past 27 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow. Alexander Frolov, head of Russia's weather service, said in a statement today, "Our ancestors haven't observed or registered a heat like that within 1,000 years. This phenomenon is absolutely unique." There is some slight relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 31 - 33°C (88 - 91 °F) Wednesday though Sunday.

Belarus records its hottest temperature in history for the second day in a row
The Russian heat wave has also affected the neighboring nations of Ukraine and Belarus. All three nations have recorded their hottest temperatures in history over the past few weeks. Belarus, on the western border of Russia, recorded its hottest temperature in history on Saturday, August 7, when the mercury hit 38.9°C (102°F) in Gomel. This broke the all-time record for extreme heat set just one day before, the 38.7°C (101.7°F) recorded in Gorky. Prior to 2010, the hottest temperature ever recorded in Belarus was the 38.0°C (100.4°F) in Vasiliyevichy on Aug. 20, 1946. As I described in detail in Saturday's post, Belarus' new all-time extreme heat record gives the year 2010 the most national extreme heat records for a single year--seventeen. These nations comprise 19% of the total land area of Earth. This is the largest area of Earth's surface to experience all-time record high temperatures in any single year in the historical record. Looking back at the past decade, which was the hottest decade in the historical record, Seventy-five countries set extreme hottest temperature records (33% of all countries.) For comparison, fifteen countries set extreme coldest temperature records over the past ten years (6% of all countries). Earth has now seen four consecutive months with its warmest temperature on record, and the first half of 2010 was the warmest such 6-month period in the planet's history. It is not a surprise that many all-time extreme heat records are being shattered when the planet as a whole is so warm. Global warming "loads the dice" to favor extreme heat events unprecedented in recorded history.

July SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest July on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during July, beating the previous record of 1.19°C set in July 2005. July 2010 was the sixth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and had the third warmest anomaly of any month in history. The five warmest months in history for the tropical Atlantic have all occurred this year. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role.

The magnitude of the anomaly has increased slightly since June, because trade winds over the tropical Atlantic were at below-normal speeds during July. These lower trade wind speeds were due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High had below-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at below-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to stay at record warm levels during the remainder of August, and probably during September as well. This should significantly increase the odds of getting major hurricanes in the Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for August 9, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

94L
A area of disurbed weather (94L) over South Florida is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Florida and the adjacent waters, but is not a threat to develop today due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, tonight through Thursday. This relaxation in shear may allow 94L to begin to organize. However, 94L will not have much time over the Gulf of Mexico to become a tropical depression or tropical storm, as steering currents favor a westward or west-northwestward motion over the Gulf that would bring the storm ashore over the northern Gulf coast by Wednesday or Thursday. NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Tuesday afternoon.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean is close to tropical depression status. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next two days, which should allow 93L to become a tropical depression by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 70% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic should force 93L to turn northward on Wednesday, and 93L should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L.

A exceptionally slow-starting typhoon season
There is one bit of good weather news to report. Over in the Western Pacific, typhoon season has been remarkably quiet this year. Prior to yesterday's formation of Tropical Storm Dianmu, just three named storms had formed this year--Tropical Storm Omais, Typhoon Conson, and Typhoon Chanthu. The average for this point in the season is ten storms. Sunday's total of three named storms in the West Pacific tied 2010 with 1998, 1954, and 1975 as the slowest starting Western Pacific typhoon season on record, for the date August 8. Now that we have Tropical Storm Dianmu in the Western Pacific, 2010 ranks as the 4th slowest start to a typhoon season as of August 9. Reliable records of typhoon activity go back to 1951.


Figure 3. Heavy downpours triggered landslides and mud-rock flows in China's Gansu Province, early Sunday morning. Image credit: www.news.cn.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds more in China, India, and Pakistan over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has been exceptionally deadly this year. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit over the weekend with torrential monsoon rains, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. At least 1300 people are missing in the disaster. Fresh monsoon rains in Pakistan over the weekend triggered landslides that killed sixty more people, in addition to the 1,500 - 1,600 people who died in monsoon floods that began in late July. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, with 500 people missing. Monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon on Tuesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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TCFA for 94L





WTNT01 KNGU 101400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 101400Z AUG 10//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.5N 83.0W TO 27.6N 87.2W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A 0315 ZULU ASCAT PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH AN ASSOCIATED
TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 25N 86W TO 27N 89W. CURRENT REGIONAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 24HRS. CURRENTLY THE LOW IS RESIDING UNDER 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OF NORTHERLY SHEAR. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO 88 DEGREES FARENHEIT SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 111400Z AUG 2010.//
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11210
2904. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:
Hey Drak...soon.



So it would seem
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2902. Prgal
Quoting StormW:


You betcha!


Ok, got it. So it doesnt need to be "active" as in an early start but "active" as in number of systems...
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2901. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
Flora was a nightmare for Haiti and Cuba. I hope the rain eases up for ya.....

Thanks.
Yeah, Flora was bad for Haiti in particular (so many storms over the years have been bad for them...)
Here it has been a nice morning so far, as the rain has held off.
Looking East, does not look like this sunshine will last though.
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Quoting Drakoen:
ASCAT pass reveals cyclonic curvature with the wave east of the Lesser Antilles:



This will be our next invest area as early as today.
Member Since: April 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
Here at Stennis Space Center we just received this email...

SSC SITE STATUS TUESDAY AUGUST 10, 2010


ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL PROBABLY BE INITIATED SOMETIME TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISANA. TRACKING MODELS SHOW LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE PANHNADLE OF FLORIDA TO ST CHARLES LOUISANA.

THE STORM IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN IMPACING THE GULF COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


As with any storm, long term forecasts can be highly inaccurate. SSC will continue to actively track this storms’ progress and provide an update if/when appropriate.
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2898. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


To clarify somewhat, what I and some other folks are speaking of as far as an "active" season, WE DO expect the total amount of storms to surpass the avg of 10-6-2, AND rival that of 1995/1998



Did I read that right , you expect this year to surpass 1995 as far as the number of storms?
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2897. Prgal
Quoting StormW:
Hey Drak...soon.



I wish I could understand what this means...
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I'm just glad Alabama is out of this one. Well, maybe a shower or two which we need. LA and TX though on the other hand?
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Most likely waiting for recon data, why speculate, ya know?


But Dr. M is "very" good at his analysis.......Can't wait for his take.
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2893. Prgal
Quoting StormW:


To clarify somewhat, what I and some other folks are speaking of as far as an "active" season, WE DO expect the total amount of storms to surpass the avg of 10-6-2, AND rival that of 1995/1998





Thank you Storm! So may I ask something? Are we then up for a ride? I mean, can we expect something like...lets say...tracking 3-5 systems at the same time? Or having a storm with potential for development emerging every 3 days or so?
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2892. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/94L/XX
MARK
24.52N83.73W
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2890. Drakoen
ASCAT pass reveals cyclonic curvature with the wave east of the Lesser Antilles:

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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
There's a lot of popcorn convection starting in the dry air slot to the NW of 94L. Looks like it will be able to fight off the dry air for the most part as the ULL weakens.


I saw that too... plus alot of that convection has the potential to feed into 94L, helping growth.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
2888. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

1963 was also the year of Flora. Formed at about 10N.
Major damage to the Islands of Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada.
Went on to cause the deaths of 8000 people, if I recall correctly.
Flora was a nightmare for Haiti and Cuba. I hope the rain eases up for ya.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Took a break for work and surprised that Dr. M has not updated yet......Probably trying to figure out whether he is leaning towards TD/TS on 94L vs hurricane potential before landfall later on down the road.



Most likely waiting for recon data, why speculate, ya know?
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Looking at rgb in motion Gulf loop. What is that South of New Orleans. Looks like the best satellite presentation of the season so far except Alex.
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There's a lot of popcorn convection starting in the dry air slot to the NW of 94L. Looks like it will be able to fight off the dry air for the most part as the ULL weakens.
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2884. Drakoen
93L and 94L look the same to me just at different angles. I can see both of their circulations.
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2882. Prgal
Quoting Cotillion:


As said, it depends on who you ask.

Some go just for the quantity of storms in relation to climatology (The 10-6-2 figure, in my opinion though, is way outdated). Some say major hurricanes. Or, like earlier referenced, from the ACE.

Or where they hit.


Ok, I get your point...thanks...and I guess you are right. Arrghhh, I wish I could understand weather lol.
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2881. pottery
Quoting germemiguel:
Good morning every body

the tropical wave on the 50W remind me the 22th September 1963...

One day before the nhc initializes the TD6...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edith_%281963%29

1963 was also the year of Flora. Formed at about 10N.
Major damage to the Islands of Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada.
Went on to cause the deaths of 8000 people, if I recall correctly.
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There is going to be a window of opportunity very soon for 94L to vertically stack its thunderstorm convection once it moves slightly farther north. It could get crazy pretty quickly...

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Took a break for work and surprised that Dr. M has not updated yet......Probably trying to figure out whether he is leaning towards TD/TS on 94L vs hurricane potential before landfall later on down the road.
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Quoting Prgal:


So its not about the number of storms but the intensity? Maybe I am confusing "an active season" for something similar to 2005. Thanks!


As said, it depends on who you ask.

Some go just for the quantity of storms in relation to climatology (The 10-6-2 figure, in my opinion though, is way outdated). Some say major hurricanes. Or, like earlier referenced, from the ACE.

Or where they hit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2877. Prgal
Quoting wxman69:


You are right.. it's been relatively "normal" but by the numbers, perhaps just a tad above for 1 hurricane and 2 tropical storms. Seasonal prognosticators have high expectations for the peak-- Aug 15th- Oct 15th, which is why the "expected" numbers remain so high for the season. It is not uncommon for La Nina years to feature more active late season months.. OCT-NOV and occasionally later, though this late they rarely threaten land. You bring up an interesting point about the lack of activity, though.. It's not just in the Atlantic, but globally. In fact, we are at a 30 or more year low for global cyclone activity and have been for the past few seasons. The WESTPAC averages 10 storms for the season by now, and they've only had 3.. EASTPAC same deal. It would be interesting to hear some theory behind this.. (Dr. M.. hemm.. hemm. )


Thanks! Like I mentioned before, maybe I am comparing this year to 2005. That year looked like an active season and maybe I was expecting something like that. I was thinking that maybe they lowered a bit the numbers because we didn't have a lot of systems during June and July...don't know.
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94L acquiring that curved band appearance.

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Claudette scenario still entirely possible, I think i'll blog on that possibility if 94L persists.

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
I see the tightening, looking more at the coordinates that you and Drak are looking at, I also see a little northward component (WNW)in the movement, but it is very slow.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not really, slowly getting better defined and consolidated...we will likely have a tropical depression later today.
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2873. Prgal
Quoting Cotillion:


It does seem rather subjective.

Some of the active/hyperactive lexicon comes just from the ACE... which is not necessarily comparative with quantity of storms per season.

It just depends on how strong and how long they lasted.

Take the 2007 season. 15 storms, 2 cat 5s.

The San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 basically equalled that season's ACE by itself.


So its not about the number of storms but the intensity? Maybe I am confusing "an active season" for something similar to 2005. Thanks!
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Quoting Goldenblack:
I know I am not Miami, but I have been seeing from the Tampa NWS office that troughing is expected to move back in....wouldn't allow the westward movement that you all could use (a weak system with some rain and drought relief). However, if that were to happen, I don't think the system would be much of a blessing, it would be stronger



Thanks!!! your are correct.. a weak TS would be a beautiful thing for us right now... but no.. I do not want another IKE (even though with the generac Isurvived just fine... others did not)
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942010 08/10/10 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 40 45 47 51 52 55 54
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 40 45 38 31 28 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 33 36 39 35 30 28 27 27

SHEAR (KT) 17 9 5 6 12 13 13 12 13 11 9 11 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 0 2 0 -1 1 -2 0 1 -1
SHEAR DIR 3 69 115 64 83 125 84 101 66 101 86 215 200
SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.7 31.1 31.3 31.3 30.4 29.0 27.4 26.5
POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 171 171 171 171 171 170 170 170 150 127 116
ADJ. POT. INT. 152 158 159 160 160 162 167 170 167 148 124 105 95
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -51.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 12 9 15 9 17 9 14 7
700-500 MB RH 57 61 61 54 57 57 58 56 54 52 56 58 59
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 8 8 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -4 -8 -25 -24 -29 -40 -43 -78 -31 -15 -60 -60
200 MB DIV -11 -1 -17 -12 0 -4 -3 -15 -4 2 9 -2 18
LAND (KM) 136 193 245 325 356 190 91 62 -25 -144 -269 -410 -499
LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.1 30.0 31.0 31.9 32.9 33.5
LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.9 84.7 85.7 86.7 88.6 90.3 91.8 93.1 94.4 95.5 96.5 97.2
STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 13 31 63 55 36 31 40 9 51 43 0 0 0

I think the current assessment of shear is too high..... But notice how it quickly drops off.
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WE had the coolest air in NE Dade Fl. in the last 3months last night so there is some definite cool air around this system.
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2869. wxman69
Quoting Prgal:
Good morning everyone. I have limited knowledge in this subject but it seems that, for now, its been a typical year in terms of tropical system formation. Am I wrong? Is the worse yet to come? Its been relatively quiet...why? TIA!


You are right.. it's been relatively "normal" but by the numbers, perhaps just a tad above for 1 hurricane and 2 tropical storms. Seasonal prognosticators have high expectations for the peak-- Aug 15th- Oct 15th, which is why the "expected" numbers remain so high for the season. It is not uncommon for La Nina years to feature more active late season months.. OCT-NOV and occasionally later, though this late they rarely threaten land. You bring up an interesting point about the lack of activity, though.. It's not just in the Atlantic, but globally. In fact, we are at a 30 or more year low for global cyclone activity and have been for the past few seasons. The WESTPAC averages 10 storms for the season by now, and they've only had 3.. EASTPAC same deal. It would be interesting to hear some theory behind this.. (Dr. M.. hemm.. hemm. )
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Quoting Prgal:


Yeah, but having a Cat 4 doesn't mean its an active season, right? I guess we need a high number of systems forming...not sure tho.


It does seem rather subjective.

Some of the active/hyperactive lexicon comes just from the ACE... which is not necessarily comparative with quantity of storms per season.

It just depends on how strong and how long they lasted.

Take the 2007 season. 15 storms, 2 cat 5s.

The San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 (or Hurricane Ivan, '04) basically equalled that season's ACE by itself.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2867. Drakoen
Quoting extreme236:
Area east of the Antilles could be our next invest if it persists. I believe it is the same wave we were tracking a few days ago that appeared impressive.


It is looking healthier and there is an upper level high associated with the system. Upper level winds are forecasted to be conducive for development in the Caribbean.
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06z DGEX has weakened from last nights 18z DGEX, landfall now as a 994mb system.

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting Drakoen:
If only 93L would develop more convection it would be a tropical depression already.
Yup, it has been developing some convection as of late, however environmental conditions aren't optimal...might be a high-latitude system, similar to Danny (2003).
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Quoting extreme236:
Area east of the Antilles could be our next invest if it persists. I believe it is the same wave we were tracking a few days ago that appeared impressive.


this one is getting really interesting...and plenty of time to develop
Member Since: April 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
So here is one factor that will cause the initial strengthening of 94L to be at a slow or moderate pace.

In this image it looks like there is plenty of moisture with 75 dewpoints common. But this is only SURFACE moisture.




Looking at the Skew-T from a baloon launched at Tallahassee, the Red and Green lines diverge strongly above the surface. The diagram has decreasing pressure from bottom to top with the surface at the bottom of the diagram and the stratopshere at the very top of the diagram.

The Red line is the actual air temperature that the balloon found along its way up, and the Green line is the dewpoint along its path up. Where the two lines are far apart, the relatively humidity of the air is low and the air is dry. This dry air (from an upper level low) makes it difficult for a tropical system to sustain strong updrafts and ultimately slows intensification.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm thinking a little bit to the left of the consensus, more towards the Texas/Louisiana line.


Depends on the high, if it stays further west, Louisiana, if east, Texas.....right now it is further west.
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Good morning every body

the tropical wave on the 50W remind me the 22th September 1963...

One day before the nhc initializes the TD6...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edith_%281963%29
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Quoting Drakoen:
Satellite imagery animation reveals the center just north of the convective mass.




looks like the convections starting to try and wrap around the center,with new convection forming,sticking w/my forecast td6 tonight,ts danielle tomorrow,tonight moving north and tomorrow nnw,expect possible ts conditions along fl's sw coastline tonight and overnight imo
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Still fairly broad isn't it Drak, MH09?

Not really, slowly getting better defined and consolidated...we will likely have a tropical depression later today.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Updated... 3 Models now have 94L as a Cat 1 at landfall.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI



Looks like a bit of shift in the track. more west?
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
OT, but not as far off as Levi Johnson.

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2856. Prgal
Quoting nola70119:


Ask Storm, I am not an expert. Just saying that all signs are for next week to be quite interesting.


Ok, thanks! I am not an expert either. That's why I have so many questions running around in my head.
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Quoting BTRWeather:


what would happen if the NHC were to classify 93L and 94L at the same update time? Which wave would be named first?


Tie goes to the runner....I am guessing NOLA gets Danielle, we have a think with the girl storms- Betsy, Camille, Katrina.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.