Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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2079. msphar
Hey Storm, I noticed La Nina signal lost at sea in the color of blue.
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2078. aquak9
aw heck I can't even read the source of the graphic. Please stormw what is it?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
2077. aquak9
What do you notice in the graphic?

(scares stormw cause I'm actully trying to answer)

I see decreased wind shear and increased up lift, uh thats positive NAO, right? in the MDR

scott- I was just gonna post what you posted! :)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
Morning all.

Interesting graph, Storm.

It's either:

Perhaps a good sign or the readings are wrong.

Or:

Since Manchester City were in Baltimore recently, and one of the richest clubs in the world, they've decided to paint the sea in their colour as an advertising gimmick.

The second is quite persuading...
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2075. scott39
Quoting aquak9:


first, it's only a weak surfac low, so it's not like it's got anything to decouple from. second, It's probably gonna just exit inot the gom as an open wave.

1032, eh, Ike??
Thanks
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2074. scott39
The guy from Crown weather said "The lid should come off the box between August 15th thru the 20th". He said there could be multiple storms and hes only discussing the ones that are a threat to land. We will see.
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2072. aquak9
Quoting scott39:
How is a weak low going to make it over FL. and stay together?


first, it's only a weak surfac low, so it's not like it's got anything to decouple from. second, It's probably gonna just exit inot the gom as an open wave.

1032, eh, Ike??
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
2071. IKE
GFS @ 96 hours...94L gone(never amounted to much)...and 93L(maybe it gets designated a TD/weak TS, if it's lucky), heading to that invest box in the sky...and a 1032 mb high in the NE ATL....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2070. scott39
How is a weak low going to make it over FL. and stay together?
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2068. aquak9
thanks ike. WRF at least hinting for me to get some rain outta this.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
2067. IKE
6Z GFS @ 48 hours shows a 1010 mb low in the northern GOM and 93L in the Atlantic waiting on a trough to turn it out-to-sea....




94L hardly has any vorticity with it at 48 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2066. aquak9
G'morning WU-Bloggers worldwide.

From Local JAX NWS discussion:
UPPER LOW NEAR BAHAMAS AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF FLAGLER BEACH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
2065. smuldy
Quoting KoritheMan:


What I meant by "anticyclonic loop" was just a slow, clockwise movement which would ultimately cause a "looping" motion in the track.

An example of a loop:



Obviously, this one was a cyclonic loop. But it illustrates what I'm trying to construe rather well, I think.
thanks thats what i thought at least but just couldnt find a solid answer save for a few storms that had anticyclonic loops mentioned but no track graph
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2064. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95W MOVE W
OF AREA TODAY. FRONTAL TROUGH FROM TAMPA BAY NW TO 29N87W DRIFT
SW AS LOW PRES CURRENTLY ALONG FLORIDA NE COAST TRACKS SW ACROSS
N FLORIDA TODAY AND EMERGES INTO EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. LOW PRES
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 29N86W TUE...AND INLAND LOUISIANA THU AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 26N.
..............................................


From this mornings Tallahassee discussion.....


TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST WILL REMAIN ON
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK WEST OVER THE FL
PENINSULA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SOUTH
OF OUR MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH ITS
POSITION RELATIVE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF IT AND THE TUTT
CELL...DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW
OUTLIERS...THE MODELS REFLECT THIS QUITE WELL AND GENERALLY INDICATE
A WEAK LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. THE MAIN
IMPACT RELATIVE TO OUR LOCAL AREA WILL BE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND/PANHANDLE AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. WINDS MAY REACH CAUTIONARY TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OUT OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OR
TWO.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. BOTH THE 00Z EURO AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF LOUISIANA
BY THURSDAY. NEITHER MODEL STRENGTHENS THIS FEATURE VERY MUCH...BUT
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL LIKELY KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. BEYOND THURSDAY BOTH
MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVING INLAND NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER AND
BECOMING VERY DIFFUSE AND HARD TO TRACK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. MAX DAILY HEAT INDICES MAY GRADUALLY
CREEP UP TOWARDS THE 110 DEGREE LEVEL ON OCCASION AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY AS
IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
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Quoting smuldy:
thank you, what i was actually asking about was part of kori's forecast which mentioned the unlikely possibility of an anticyclonic loop which i assume is part of the storm track and different than just developing an anticyclone (which I assumed would mean southward track since its an anti cyclonic loop) unless i misunderstood-thank you though every bit helps


What I meant by "anticyclonic loop" was just a slow, clockwise movement which would ultimately cause a "looping" motion in the track.

An example of a loop:



Obviously, this one was a cyclonic loop. But it illustrates what I'm trying to construe rather well, I think.
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0000h. Still shws 94l ging in2 sela. Just brader l0w. l0l night 4 real

Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yeah. Loking at the wave just exited Africa and all the thers. Fixing t get busy.


GFS has been indicating a substantial relaxation of the vertical shear beginning in about five days as the persistent troughiness finally begins to subside.

Now, whether or not this actually materializes is another story entirely.
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2059. xcool





Africa
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L0l. Keyboards fried. Must steal hub's laptp tmrrw. :) night all.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting xcool:
ECMWF DID POOR JOB WHAT Bonnie.


Yeah. Loking at the wave just exited Africa and all the thers. Fixing t get busy.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting smuldy:
thank you, what i was actually asking about was part of kori's forecast which mentioned the unlikely possibility of an anticyclonic loop which i assume is part of the storm track and different than just developing an anticyclone (which I assumed would mean southward track since its an anti cyclonic loop) unless i misunderstood-thank you though every bit helps


Oh, ok. I think he meant the strm itself may d a anticyclnic lp. n post 2064 see hw the mdels loop it back east? That's prbly what he meant. I think. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
2055. smuldy
Quoting homelesswanderer:


You're welcme. Srry ketbard nt wrking. Kori prbly knws mre. :)
lol no worries on the keyboard issues ive had my netbook for almost two months and i still typo all the time
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2054. xcool
ECMWF DID POOR JOB WHAT Bonnie.
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2053. JLPR2
Well, I'm off to bed.
Goodnight everyone!

Also, nice looking TW off Africa.
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Quoting xcool:
Everything is up in the air right now


Yep.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
2051. xcool
Everything is up in the air right now
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Quoting smuldy:
thank you, what i was actually asking about was part of kori's forecast which mentioned the unlikely possibility of an anticyclonic loop which i assume is part of the storm track and different than just developing an anticyclone (which I assumed would mean southward track since its an anti cyclonic loop) unless i misunderstood-thank you though every bit helps


You're welcme. Srry ketbard nt wrking. Kori prbly knws mre. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
2049. smuldy
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Good ol' Wiki. :)

An anticyclone (that is, opposite to a cyclone) is a weather phenomenon defined by the National Weather Service's glossary as "A large-scale circulation of winds around a central region of high atmospheric pressure, clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, counterclockwise in the Southern Hemisphere".[1] Effects of surface-based anticyclones include clearing skies as well as cooler, drier air. Fog can also form overnight within a region of higher pressure. Mid-tropospheric systems, such as the subtropical ridge, deflect tropical cyclones around their periphery and cause a temperature inversion inhibiting free convection near their center, building up surface-based haze under their base. Anticyclones aloft can form within warm core lows, such as tropical cyclones, due to descending cool air from the backside of upper troughs, such as polar highs, or from large scale sinking, such as the subtropical ridge. Anticyclonic flow spirals in a clockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere and anticlockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Anticyclones were first described by Francis Galton in the 1860s.
Link
thank you, what i was actually asking about was part of kori's forecast which mentioned the unlikely possibility of an anticyclonic loop which i assume is part of the storm track and different than just developing an anticyclone (which I assumed would mean southward track since its an anti cyclonic loop) unless i misunderstood-thank you though every bit helps
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Models made an eastward shift:



Except this one. (Best I can tell anyway) :)



Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
2047. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DIANMU (T1004)
15:00 PM JST August 9 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In East China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dianmu (985 hPa) located at 27.1N 125.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
120 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 32.2N 125.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/ Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 34.6N 127.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 38.7N 134.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Models made an eastward shift:

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2044. xcool



93L & 94L
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2042. xcool


AL, 94, 2010080906, , BEST, 0, 297N, 796W, 20, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 100, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,




AL, 94, 2010080900, , BEST, 0, 297N, 795W, 25, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M


94L NOT MOVEING.
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Thanks xcool,Ima check back tomorrow.
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2039. xcool



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Quoting homelesswanderer:


A LOT better this run. Link


And a lot more realistic.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Good ol' Wiki. :)

An anticyclone (that is, opposite to a cyclone) is a weather phenomenon defined by the National Weather Service's glossary as "A large-scale circulation of winds around a central region of high atmospheric pressure, clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, counterclockwise in the Southern Hemisphere".[1] Effects of surface-based anticyclones include clearing skies as well as cooler, drier air. Fog can also form overnight within a region of higher pressure. Mid-tropospheric systems, such as the subtropical ridge, deflect tropical cyclones around their periphery and cause a temperature inversion inhibiting free convection near their center, building up surface-based haze under their base. Anticyclones aloft can form within warm core lows, such as tropical cyclones, due to descending cool air from the backside of upper troughs, such as polar highs, or from large scale sinking, such as the subtropical ridge. Anticyclonic flow spirals in a clockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere and anticlockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Anticyclones were first described by Francis Galton in the 1860s.
Link


Homeless - you've got mail...
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


I don't know if it starts a particular place. But you may be right. I always thought it meant clockwise flow.


Good ol' Wiki. :)

An anticyclone (that is, opposite to a cyclone) is a weather phenomenon defined by the National Weather Service's glossary as "A large-scale circulation of winds around a central region of high atmospheric pressure, clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, counterclockwise in the Southern Hemisphere".[1] Effects of surface-based anticyclones include clearing skies as well as cooler, drier air. Fog can also form overnight within a region of higher pressure. Mid-tropospheric systems, such as the subtropical ridge, deflect tropical cyclones around their periphery and cause a temperature inversion inhibiting free convection near their center, building up surface-based haze under their base. Anticyclones aloft can form within warm core lows, such as tropical cyclones, due to descending cool air from the backside of upper troughs, such as polar highs, or from large scale sinking, such as the subtropical ridge. Anticyclonic flow spirals in a clockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere and anticlockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Anticyclones were first described by Francis Galton in the 1860s.
Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
2035. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 090615

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON AUG 9 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100809 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100809 0600 100809 1800 100810 0600 100810 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.7N 79.6W 30.0N 80.9W 30.3N 82.6W 30.7N 84.6W
BAMD 29.7N 79.6W 29.2N 81.1W 28.7N 83.3W 28.4N 85.7W
BAMM 29.7N 79.6W 29.7N 81.0W 29.6N 83.2W 29.7N 85.5W
LBAR 29.7N 79.6W 29.5N 80.2W 29.6N 81.5W 29.6N 83.0W
SHIP 20KTS 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS
DSHP 20KTS 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100811 0600 100812 0600 100813 0600 100814 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.9N 86.6W 31.5N 89.9W 32.2N 92.1W 34.0N 94.2W
BAMD 28.6N 88.1W 29.5N 92.4W 30.7N 95.5W 32.0N 97.8W
BAMM 29.8N 87.7W 30.4N 91.4W 31.5N 93.9W 33.2N 95.5W
LBAR 29.7N 84.8W 29.9N 88.8W 30.6N 92.0W 31.5N 93.7W
SHIP 27KTS 35KTS 40KTS 43KTS
DSHP 32KTS 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.7N LONCUR = 79.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 29.9N LONM12 = 79.2W DIRM12 = 226DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 30.6N LONM24 = 78.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




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2034. xcool
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2033. xcool
homelesswanderer .WELCOME
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Quoting xcool:
homelesswanderer .BASE OFF gfs data


Ah ok. Thanks didn't know that. :) Just relieved it doesn't show a monster this run anyway. Gonna be a long couple a days til this one pops into the GOM then we'll know more.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
2031. xcool


Lower Convergence NOW BACK OVER 94L
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Quoting smuldy:
sorry for a noob question but an anticyclonic loop would be a 360 degree loop path beginning south and east right? if wrong what would it be then?
thanks in advance google failed me on this one


I don't know if it starts a particular place. But you may be right. I always thought it meant clockwise flow.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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