Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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morning gang
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2127. gator23
Quoting gordydunnot:
I notice a nice spin in the nw Bahamas. That's where the dirty D is going to form IMO. Hopefully it's not related to the K word speaking of heat anomalies.
Quoting gordydunnot:
I notice a nice spin in the nw Bahamas. That's where the dirty D is going to form IMO. Hopefully it's not related to the K word speaking of heat anomalies.

i dont even see it becomeing a tropical storm in IMO has not consolidated no model support that indicates hurricane formation. maybe a depression, nothing like K though
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2126. msphar
are you sure La Nina is here and is moderate to strong ?
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I notice a nice spin in the nw Bahamas. That's where the dirty D is going to form IMO. Hopefully it's not related to the K word speaking of heat anomalies.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
2123. surfmom
scanning through trying to determine what we have on the Breakfast Plate this AM -RAIN W/NO NAME, trouble or peanuts

100% humidity in SWFL - and still no AC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
and I see they're both from august, well duh, woulda made no sense to compare different months

lotsa folks sticking to thoer guns this year.
and Ike is sticking to his models...we all know how accurate those can be, whew
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Water vapor imagery suggests that the giant bag o' dry air that descended southward behind the cold front and down along the Florida peninsula yesterday should continue to shrink (so long as it's not further reinforced), diminishing it's ability to hinder development of the low over the northern Bahamas.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
2120. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Exactly. in fact 13-5-1

Not directed at you...Any Questions?
What is ENSO and what does is mean when it is compared to 1984 and 2010?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Though, here would be a good trivia question:

Which season had the highest monthly AMO figures since 1851?
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Good Morning everyone, Nice day on sunday had 1.50 inches of liquid sunshine here in zephyhills fl.
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Quoting StormW:


Still looking at things...that will be in my synopsis this morning.

Thank you. Look forward to it as I do everyday! Have a wonderful day
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g/m all...
StormW -- will 94L be a large concern for us in SE LA or will this just be a rain maker?
Thank you from a long time lurker :-)
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Quoting scott39:
First Storm wasnt until August 18th!


And didn't end until December.
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2112. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Exactly. in fact 13-5-1
First Storm wasnt until August 18th!
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1984 ENSO figures:

-0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.3

-0.6

-0.9

-1.1

2010 to date:

1.7

1.5

1.2

0.8

0.3

-0.2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Right...that's one of my points.


Yep.

And to enhance:

2010 is *higher* than 2005.

(indeed, until this point only 1998 comes close).
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2107. aquak9
Quoting poknsnok:
more than a pot of boiling peanuts is needed for storms to form. what is keeping the lid on things?


yes but now I am craving boiled peanuts. I'm not craving storms!

ya'll have a good one! thanks for the early morning brain excersise, Seenya Cheef!
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2106. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Well, let's compare then...

The first is the SST anomaly monthly mean for Aug. of 1984.

The second is the current one for Aug. 05, 2010.

You can see how cold 1984 was.





How many storms did we have in 1984?
13 uh oh
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Well, figures of AMO for 1984:

1984 -0.070 -0.052 -0.091 -0.120 -0.136 -0.293 -0.237 -0.196 -0.174 -0.297 -0.385 -0.281

Figures for 2010 to date:

2010 0.086 0.219 0.332 0.476 0.504 0.495

So, not too surprising.

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more than a pot of boiling peanuts is needed for storms to form. what is keeping the lid on things?
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Quoting xcool:
Everything is up in the air right now
Weatherman's lament ! LOLOLOL
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2101. aquak9
Boiled Peanuts!!
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2100. MahFL
Can anyone see the low off FL on sat pics ?
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2099. MahFL
Quoting StormW:


Correct.

What about this one?



Red hot !
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2098. aquak9
and I see they're both from august, well duh, woulda made no sense to compare different months

lotsa folks sticking to thoer guns this year.
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2097. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Yes.
Which means watch out for a flying lid?
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2096. MahFL
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Currently doing analysis.

What do you notice in the graphic?



An El Nino ?
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2094. scott39
Quoting IKE:


I sure don't see it from the ECMWF or GFS.

A lot of that thinking has been said about every future week to 2 weeks, since mid-late July.

I see nothing significant affecting the USA or anywhere, through Aug. 16th....if not beyond....right now.

The latest GFS is showing a couple of troughs in the eastern USA over the next 7 days.

Maybe that's why this is the 6-10 day temp outlook....

Im cautious-- Too many forecasters sticking to thier guns!
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2093. aquak9
ok I ws confused cause I did not know it said 1984.

now the next graphic is totally opposite- is that a pot of peanuts boiling?
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.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
2090. scott39
Quoting StormW:


What do you notice about the anomalies?
There positive? Im trying!LOL
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2088. aquak9
oh!!! that IS 1984!!

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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Currently doing analysis.

What do you notice in the graphic?



Nearly the entire MDR devoid of positive SST anomalies 26 years ago. In fact, much of the entire equatorial region was heavy on the negative.

Oh, and the USSR was still intact, so some of the borders in Europe and Asia look different than they do now. But I don't think that's what you meant. :-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
2085. aquak9
ok...all the gretest SST anomlies lie in the atlantic from africa to the CONUs, and the carib and gulf too.

excpet for the IO but that area is kinda not favorable for TC development cause it's monsoonal seasn over there
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2084. scott39
StormW, Do you expect to be very busy after August 15th with TCs?
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2083. IKE
Quoting scott39:
The guy from Crown weather said "The lid should come off the box between August 15th thru the 20th". He said there could be multiple storms and hes only discussing the ones that are a threat to land. We will see.


I sure don't see it from the ECMWF or GFS.

A lot of that thinking has been said about every future week to 2 weeks, since mid-late July.

I see nothing significant affecting the USA or anywhere, through Aug. 16th....if not beyond....right now.

The latest GFS is showing a couple of troughs in the eastern USA over the next 7 days.

Maybe that's why this is the 6-10 day temp outlook....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting StormW:


Guess I should have specified...those are SST anomaly means for a month. Now, what do you notice?


1984??
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2081. scott39
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Currently doing analysis.

What do you notice in the graphic?

I give?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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