Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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2180. breald
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
National Hurricane Center web site right side analysis tools


Thanks
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2179. bappit
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Interesting GFS readings on 850 vort - especially when it gets out towards the later part of August.

The later part of August? What do the goat entrails say?
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From the Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion, music to Ike's ears.

...FALL BEGINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF UNITED STATES...
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10459

Lisa 04 had an anticyclonic loop
and Alice 53 made two
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2176. tkeith
Quoting StormW:
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
Any educated guess on Intensity given all the factors if 94L does develop?

Thanks Storm!


Looking at the upper pattern in about 72 hours or so, right now, until we see what happens once in the GOMEX, I would have to say depression at best.
I like good news on Mondays :)
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2175. bappit
PGI26L:



The PREDICT fix for 93L is still south of the visible circulation. Since it is advertised as the location of the pouch, perhaps that is not the same as the surface circulation??? Seems confusing.

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National Hurricane Center web site right side analysis tools
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Quoting StormW:


Nice update Bob!


Thanks, have a nice Monday!
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2170. breald
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Interesting GFS readings on 850 vort - especially when it gets out towards the later part of August.


Where can one find these models you guys are looking at?
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Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
Any educated guess on Intensity given all the factors if 94L does develop?

Thanks Storm!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2168. smuldy
Quoting MahFL:
Wow the yellow circle over FL shifted a LOT.
Ya south and east a good deal as the low contracts, but thankfully at 5-10mph its too close to shore to form anything for us unless the directional movemnet is wrong or it stalls, the gulf however is another story altogether but again its too far out to know with any certainty and i'm as amateur as amateur gets so I'll wait for Storm Levi and Kori and co's revised input as I have no real meteorological ability to offer myself aside from new found laypersons curiosity
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Tropical Update August 9th. 2010
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Interesting GFS readings on 850 vort - especially when it gets out towards the later part of August.
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Miami radar in motion looking interesting this morning also. Lot of weather out there if you imagine or hallucinate.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
2162. MahFL
Wow the yellow circle over FL shifted a LOT.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
PsuW I was just about to say that looked like Marco junior.


Haha, a potentially more intense Marco junior.
PsuW I was just about to say that looked like Marco junior.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
2159. msphar
There is also a time factor for the CV engine. Not much talk about it. Maybe 33 more waves to come off Africa, and with a productivity of .2, that lowers the expected number of CV storms to come across to something like 6.
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Central/Eastern Caribbean Sea wave is producing intense convection over possible low level center. Location is near or at 14.5N/68.5W.
2157. smuldy
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks

GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD RESULT IN
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2156. smuldy
New TWO is out and 94L moved south and east and was upped to 20%, 93L remains at 70% but commentary mentions better thunderstorm organization at center
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Buoy reading off Fl. no pressure drops.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
Quoting IKE:


I don't see or read from anywhere, that agrees with him.

And looking at water vapor...lots of dry air....

Not only dry air Ike, it's freeking' HOT/dry air....LOL
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What about that little swirl almost to 70W?

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2152. IKE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Good morning Ike not much time busy day at work lol.I see our guy at that weather site is at it again lol.We now have had 15 invest 3 named 2 pitiful systems> We now need 105 invests to hit 20 storms. Far we are averaging 20% of invests developing.I once again state i agree with Storm on 1998 where the number might be less but the multitude of fish storms and weak shered systems were the rule.To back up my point go to the advisory archive on ts hermine 1998.The forecaster said another in a sieries of sheared systems.Outside of mitch in c/a and georges at its worst in the carrib 1998 was most remembered in the conus for a large number of weak sheared storms.This season is almopst identical weak, sheared and fish .only exception alex.Look at 94l this is invest? The way it looks it will make Bonnie look like a andrew lol.I know what the charts say,maybe they will be right.But why doesnt any of these so called experts admit something is not right.Forecast on what you see not whats predicted till its obvious.Have a blessed day


I don't see or read from anywhere, that agrees with him.

And looking at water vapor...lots of dry air....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormW:


Storm, we have all given him/her the proof, I don't think he/she cares or believes all bulletins, statements, graphs and charts are a conspiracy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm, when I have a question from your blog, would you prefer I make that inquiry here or on your blog?
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2148. DDR
Morning
We've had floods everyday for the past week on my island(Trinidad),with no end in sight to these afternoon rains
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all. Still taking in coffee and clearing the cob webs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2144. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD RESULT IN
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2143. msphar
MJJ has a reading of -.2 that is ENSO neutral.

JJA may be a La NINA reading but it won't be posted until early September.

Perhaps some are forecasting a healthy La NINA but CPC doesn't have in their table.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2142. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gator you could very well be right. Looking at vorticity map it has some spin in all levels in the nw Bahamas, some convergence and some divergence and shear is not bad and dropping. Just the right ingredients but far from perfect.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
Quoting msphar:
Agreed it is coming but CPC hasn't said it is here yet.
better do your homeworkbefore you spout misinformation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning Ike not much time busy day at work lol.I see our guy at that weather site is at it again lol.We now have had 15 invest 3 named 2 pitiful systems> We now need 105 invests to hit 20 storms. Far we are averaging 20% of invests developing.I once again state i agree with Storm on 1998 where the number might be less but the multitude of fish storms and weak shered systems were the rule.To back up my point go to the advisory archive on ts hermine 1998.The forecaster said another in a sieries of sheared systems.Outside of mitch in c/a and georges at its worst in the carrib 1998 was most remembered in the conus for a large number of weak sheared storms.This season is almopst identical weak, sheared and fish .only exception alex.Look at 94l this is invest? The way it looks it will make Bonnie look like a andrew lol.I know what the charts say,maybe they will be right.But why doesnt any of these so called experts admit something is not right.Forecast on what you see not whats predicted till its obvious.Have a blessed day
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting msphar:
But an eNSo reading of -.2 is not yet in La Nina phase. Could be in a month or two.


CPC stated "ENSO cycle: La Niña conditions developed in Jul 2010" in the most recent Monthly Ocean Briefing
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10459
2137. msphar
Agreed it is coming but CPC hasn't said it is here yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atlantic SST anomalies generally decreased from last week except in the GOM. Big difference off the NE coast.

Last week




This week

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10459
Good morning. I see things are much smoother in here this morning than when I hit the rack last night.

Storm, looking forward to your synopsis, I'm certain it will be a good bit more accurate and specific than that of PsychicMaria, LOL.
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2131. msphar
But an eNSo reading of -.2 is not yet in La Nina phase. Could be in a month or two.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.