Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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2230. divdog
Quoting Jeff9641:


GFS portrays a different story and Ike's post verifies this. Post# 2210
cool air NEVER visits us this time of year and i mean NEVER. I hope that is right but i would bet my last dollar that it is not.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
Quoting TXnovice:
Quick question. There are no hurricane hunter flights scheduled for today or tomorrow. Do you think that will change? I'm assuming if it did it would be because of what happens to 94L.


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST IN E. GULF NEAR 26.5N 83.5W AT 10/1800Z.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Big relocation on 94L


AL 94 2010080712 BEST 0 281N 815W 20 1013 DB
AL 94 2010080900 BEST 0 274N 816W 20 1013 LO
AL 94 2010080906 BEST 0 267N 819W 20 1012 LO
AL 94 2010080912 BEST 0 262N 823W 20 1012 LO


Puts it closer to the deep convection, now in the Gulf.
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MOrning
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Quick question. There are no hurricane hunter flights scheduled for today or tomorrow. Do you think that will change? I'm assuming if it did it would be because of what happens to 94L.
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2225. divdog
Quoting TXnovice:
Good morning! Looks like another busy day.
not so busy from my perspective which is how we like it
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
Big relocation on 94L


AL 94 2010080712 BEST 0 281N 815W 20 1013 DB
AL 94 2010080900 BEST 0 274N 816W 20 1013 LO
AL 94 2010080906 BEST 0 267N 819W 20 1012 LO
AL 94 2010080912 BEST 0 262N 823W 20 1012 LO
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Quoting StormW:


Yeah...I remember. Yeah...what I meant by cute was not only the size, but her trying to sneak something in on us.


Looks like the sneaking continues. Will chat later.
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Quoting sporteguy03:


Looks More Zonal and no major trofs if I read that map right


GFS portrays a different story and Ike's post verifies this. Post# 2210
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting superpete:
Good morning Kman.Stormwatcher & everyone.


Hi Pete. So far so good this season. I don't think it will last much longer though. Nature has to do something with the heat build up in the tropics and the only way to transport it out of the region is by tropical cyclone.

Anyway, time for me to get going for the work day. I will check back in later.

Have a good day everyone.
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Quoting IKE:
I'm wishcasting for this 6-10 day temp. outlook to verify....

I wish this were true also, I think the heat remains in the South Central U.S. until at least mid Sept. if not longer.
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2218. Drakoen
Looks like upper level winds are becoming more favorable for development of 93L. Satellite imagery is showing a general increase in convection with the low level center located just south of the convection. The system has found itself between an upper level low near 27N 57W and a mid latitude cyclone to the east of the system. Between the aforementioned upper level features lies an upper level ridge whose axis is currently centered over 93L. A big problem will be dry air, however, the system is moving into increasing SSTs which should help it to generate convection on its own.
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Quoting StormW:




Looks More Zonal and no major trofs if I read that map right
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SAB for 93L.
09/1145 UTC 23.2N 48.0W T1.5/1.5 93L
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Very low shear and extremely high TCHP provide near perfect conditions for that little blob to become a contender. Let's see what happens during the heat of the day. If it survives today then it may have a go tonight at bulking up.

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Good morning! Looks like another busy day.
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Quoting IKE:
I'm wishcasting for this 6-10 day temp. outlook to verify....



Huge trough IKE until late August. Rainy and cooler in FL as a result. Also looks like lots of Fish storms for the time being if this does verify. FL could be in trouble is something gets into the Caribbean or Gulf.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Good morning Kman.Stormwatcher & everyone.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
...People need to know when our high officials are losing the bubble.
As I get older, I'm beginning to wonder if I'm getting a lot smarter or if politicians and bureaucrats are getting a lot stupider. {Yes, grammar police, "stupider" is a word but "more stupid" is prefered.}
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2210. IKE
I'm wishcasting for this 6-10 day temp. outlook to verify....

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Quoting StormW:
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
Any educated guess on Intensity given all the factors if 94L does develop?

Thanks Storm!


Looking at the upper pattern in about 72 hours or so, right now, until we see what happens once in the GOMEX, I would have to say depression at best.


Thanks Storm.
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2208. MahFL
Seems to be a spin near 76W 26N.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning everyone. I don't remember the name of the blogger but he was very interested in this area all day yesterday. Nice circular shape all morning.


Hi there

I wasn't on until late yesterday but I first noticed this on Saturday. I found it odd that there would be a strong 850 vort signature in the area just about right over Martinique or Guadeloupe and ran a loop in zoom. What showed up was very small but potent circulation.

Since then it has migrated generally West to where it is now. A feature like this needs to be watched this time of year once it gets to 75W.
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2206. Asta
re: 2191 yep-you said it.
a spoonful of sugar... sound like Mary Poppins!



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Lot of dry air behind 94L right now (which is why we aren't seeing much organization)



Completely normal for troughs to have dry and stable air behind them, while right now its one of three inhibiting factors with the other two being shear and landmass, I do not foresee dry air being much of a problem if it manages to moisten the environment up. Shear's going to be lessening as well over the next couple of days, and SST's in the Gulf are very warm.
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2204. Squid28
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning everyone. I don't remember the name of the blogger but he was very interested in this area all day yesterday. Nice circular shape all morning.


I think it was stormpetrol who was asking about it yesterday. Kman picked this speck out two days ago. He is really good at finding the needle in a haystack
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Storm.

Remember this feature from two nights ago when you commented that mother nature thought it was cute after I asked you to zoom in on it ?. LOL

This is the same small vigorous spin we saw on top of the Islands with the good vort signature. A bit of a sleeper it seems.
Good morning everyone. I don't remember the name of the blogger but he was very interested in this area all day yesterday. Nice circular shape all morning.
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Good Morning ;)
As good as a Monday can be anyway.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Looks like 94L is organizing SW of Tampa. THe ULL and Surface low SW of Tampa should merge tomorrow and that will mean a wet and windy day for C FL. We can easily expect 1 to 3" of rain tomorrow.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting FLdewey:
Well I for one want my money back... unless I get to see oz in his homemade IED suit again... then it's totally worth it.



lol!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 640
Quoting StormW:


Yes sir!

Good day to ya kman!!


Hi Storm.

Remember this feature from two nights ago when you commented that mother nature thought it was cute after I asked you to zoom in on it ?. LOL

This is the same small vigorous spin we saw on top of the Islands with the good vort signature. A bit of a sleeper it seems.
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Small but persistent. A " little " something to watch.

Good morning

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2196. FLdewey
Well I for one want my money back... unless I get to see oz in his homemade IED suit again... then it's totally worth it.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Yeah I know divdog...it'll change for sure

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Re:2187

True.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 640
2193. divdog
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


It was like the 25th of this month showing two possible systems developing. One in the GOM and the other comming WNW from the Carribean.
16 days out good luck with that
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
Quoting bappit:
PGI26L:



The PREDICT fix for 93L is still south of the visible circulation. Since it is advertised as the location of the pouch, perhaps that is not the same as the surface circulation??? Seems confusing.



Those locations are the forecast position and not a fix of the actual location, except the initial position when the daily forecast is done. Text track forecasts are on the PREDICT Model Products Page under MTM_track.
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And in the "You can't make this stuff up dept"...

"My understanding of dissolved oil is that it is like if you take sugar and put it in a cup of hot tea...the molecules are gone."

----Whitehouse Energy Adviser Carol Browner,
who formerly headed the Environmental Protection Agency...

This quote was highlighted in Sundays "Pensacola News Journal" hardly a bastion of right-wing extremism.

When I posted this yesterday, Neapolitans' reply infered that this was a ruse or outright lie from the "radical right". That didn't sit too well with me. I would point out this level of ignorance no matter who said it, regardless of their polical affiliations. People need to know when our high officials are losing the bubble.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 640
2187 Well Said.
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AL93 getting close to designation

AL 93 2010080912 BEST 0 232N 480W 30 1012 LO
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My favorite season- the fall.

Nothing like going to the apple farms /festivals and picking your pumpkin in late October.

Ellijay, GA has the very best festivals and apple farms. Our family goes every year.

Bring on the fall.
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I suppose that to to those for whom hurricanes and tropical storms are merely entertainment, a far-lower-than-predicted season would be a huge disappointment; to these type of folks, only a 2005-type year will fulfill their desire to see destruction visited upon the people of the Caribbean, Central America, and the U.S. They often act as though the North Atlantic is a huge demolition derby for which they've paid admission to watch one disaster after another.

However...to a scientist, a "busted" forecast--if it happens--only tells them that they know less than they thought they knew. The atmosphere is a hugely complex machine with multiple dynamic factors influencing every single little thing that happens, and while those factors are being discovered and studied, some hypotheses will pan out, and others won't. Such are the ways of science. So while the weather-as-entertainment crowd may feel downtrodden and morose if "only" an average hurricane season comes to pass, scientists won't be, as they know they need to get back to work...and, if nothing else, they've got a little more job security. ;-)

Having said that, I'm still sticking to my guns: 20/12/6.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13720
Rainshowers building here around orlando already. Keep bringing the rain. This past weekend we picked nearly 3".
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting tkeith:
Fall needs a roadmap with all roads heading south...been a hot one here since June NRT.


I hear ya on that, down in South Florida Hot Summer Rolls On. Good to see though that Fall is at least on the road.
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2184. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
From the Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion, music to Ike's ears.

...FALL BEGINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF UNITED STATES...


I'm so looking forward to it.
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Not a good fishing day...
NWS Radar Key West
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Quoting bappit:

The later part of August? What do the goat entrails say?


It was like the 25th of this month showing two possible systems developing. One in the GOM and the other comming WNW from the Carribean.
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2181. tkeith
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
From the Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion, music to Ike's ears.

...FALL BEGINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF UNITED STATES...
Fall needs a roadmap with all roads heading south...been a hot one here since June NRT.
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2180. breald
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
National Hurricane Center web site right side analysis tools


Thanks
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.