Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Jeff9641:
94L and the ULL should merge tomorrow as that happens we could see 94L take off. Mouth of the Mississippi should be the target for whatever 94L becomes.


Yep.. Looks like no rain for me in texas again!!!
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I post these SST maps almost every day and I know it doesn't tell the whole story, but when things really get going, a storm is going to have unlimited energy to strengthen the closer it gets to the US.



The SSTs are 30C+ from the Western GOM all the way to 30N and 70W in the Atlantic. Once you go south of the big islands, it changes to *only* 29C in the Central Caribbean, but back up to 30C+ around the island chain. In the Central Gulf to Northern Gulf and around the Bahamas, SSTs are maxing out the scale.
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The Montgomery Research invest tracking says that another tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa and is expected to merge with the wave to it's east at 2W. Also, another wave at 14E they say.
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Where is COC for 94L now? I don't see any swirl.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Good Morning ;)
As good as a Monday can be anyway.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


my dynamic solenoidal transfer was meticulously miscalculated
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I believe that is what Kman was referring to earlier.


Sorry, have not read back. If that's the case..may be something to watch.
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Quoting twhcracker:
our weather is weird!!! my god hasnt anyone considered all these top metereologists all over the world said we would have all these storms, and we arent, that doesnt mean they are wrong that means something aint RIGHT. also weather pattern here is like it usually is in december the last couple of years. hurricanes just going straight north out to sea etc. We have had nor'easters here in nw fla for two years now! whatr is UP with that. weather is bizarre lately.


this is an uncertain science for sure kind of like quantum mechanics

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


94L's going to have a lot more time over water now with the COC relocation.


Conditions for 94L should be quite favorable. Could become a concerning storm once it organizes.
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Good morning all. After another rainy overnight period, things have cleared slightly in Nassau this a.m. At 7 a.m.

Nassau, BS (Airport)
Updated: 7:00 AM EDT on August 09, 2010
77 °F / 25 °C
Light Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 77 °F / 25 °C
Wind: 6 mph / 9 km/h / 2.6 m/s from the SW
Pressure: 29.97 in / 1015 hPa

Now the rain has stopped, and the skies are clearing very slightly. Nice to have some cooler temps for a day or two; the last 5-7 were much more like normal and therefore very enervating....
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our weather is weird!!! my god hasnt anyone considered all these top metereologists all over the world said we would have all these storms, and we arent, that doesnt mean they are wrong that means something aint RIGHT. also weather pattern here is like it usually is in december the last couple of years. hurricanes just going straight north out to sea etc. We have had nor'easters here in nw fla for two years now! whatr is UP with that. weather is bizarre lately.
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2264. smuldy
Quoting smuldy:

It isn't that it is self interest and I am a selfish person. I enjoy storms, like the people chasing tornadoes in twister, but I don't allow myself to be in a situation where I get anything more than the ooohs and ahhs at a cool hurricane party, again I said no more than a weak cat 2, anything bigger and yeah I am bouncing out.



edit: and btw orca ty very much for your graphics you are up there with Storm and Kori and Levi as to the people I reall read on here daily to see whats what, I guess I just still have that immortality complex and telling you from someone young down here who enjoys a party they don't get better than during hurricanes that turn out to not be so bad and the visuals are quite cool. Since I work as a screenwriter it doesn't interfere with me at all unless I lose power for a prologned time which wont happen on Collins or the JFK. Even with Wilma when I lived on Collins (cat 3 there) we only lost power for 12 hours whereas everyone inland on the beach lost power for anywhere from 2 days to 2 weeks. Same reason I loved blzzards in the northeast. Everyone else had the day off so was on my schedule and so would go out and party the night of. Reason it takes to cat 3 to be classified as a deadly storm is cause 1 & 2s usually just cause disruption, which, selfishly, I am always for.
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Hey Kman stormwatcher superpete what is this I am hearing about some sort of spin in the caribbean where show me
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Quoting Drakoen:
Should be interesting to see what the dynamic models due with the relocation some of the models didn't have the system in the GOM until tomorrow. The tracks will probably shift west.


Drak...according to the SFWMD site...the BAM models have the new location and all three of them have it going in at the mouth of the MS pretty much. Do you still think this will change?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


94L's going to have a lot more time over water now with the COC relocation.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


That little blob southeast of Hispanolia looks interesting.


I believe that is what Kman was referring to earlier.
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2257. smuldy
Quoting Orcasystems:
2242. smuldy 1:22 PM GMT on August 09, 2010

Baffling how someone 28 can still only have the IQ of a 5 year old.
It isn't that it is self interest and I am a selfish person. I enjoy storms, like the people chasing tornadoes in twister, but I don't allow myself to be in a situation where I get anything more than the ooohs and ahhs at a cool hurricane party, again I said no more than a weak cat 2, anything bigger and yeah I am bouncing out.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


That little blob southeast of Hispanolia looks interesting.
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2255. guygee
Brief off-topic from the tropics.
Moscow's temperature forecast:


Last year Russia was the third largest exporter of wheat, producing around 61.5 million metric tons (MMT), slightly more than the Unites States production of around 60.2 MMT. Russia has broken all contracts and banned wheat exports until the end of this year. The Ukraine and Canada are also usual net exporters of wheat that are experiencing poor crop yields this year, the former because of heat and drought and the latter because of heavy springtime rains. The United States and the EU are increasing exports to try and make up the difference, so expect the price of bread to start going up very soon.
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Ryan N. Maue's 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update

Global TC Activity remains at 30-year lows at least -- The last 24-months of ACE at 1090 represents a decrease from the previous months and a return to the levels of September 2009...Since Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) and the publication of high-profile papers in Nature and Science, global tropical cyclone ACE has collapsed in half. This continues the now 4-consecutive years global crash in tropical cyclone activity. While the Atlantic on average makes up about 10% of the global, yearly hurricane activity, the other 90% deserves attention and has been significantly depressed since 2007. See Figure below.

Northern Hemisphere year-to-date ACE is nearing 50% below normal. The Western North Pacific is at 17% of normal (or the past 30-year average).




Figure: Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sum through July 31, 2010. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/lime green boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE.
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E winds are being reported in Cape Coral, with a 29.92 inches pressure.
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SW winds are being reported in Key West, with a pressure of 29.92 inches.
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2249. IKE

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Somewhere in this thread someone compared an 80% chance of rain and hurricane forecasting, making it appear similar.

Actually, that is quite true.

I don't know about the rest of you; but, whenever I see a forecast of 80% chance of rain, I roll my eyes and say to myself, 'Yeah, fat chance.'...I am willing to wager that the vast majority of folks feel the same way about weather forecasting. Is it a lost art or is it an art that never was to begin with?

Who can really say?

All I know is that if we allow ourselves to be alarmists regarding the weather and hurricanes, people will soon find themselves saying, under their breath, 'Yeah, when hell freezes over.' and statistically they will be justified a large majority of the time.

I am beginning to wonder if the advancements in our technology has outpaced our ability to understand what it all means. For example, is it really significant that we are able to determine a temperature of 1/10 of a degree F? Or is all that information really a case of diminishing return?

Data gathered using sophisticated technology has only really been around for less that 30 years. To attempt to look back beyond that period of time and expect to draw dependable conclusions is simply folly. It is like comparing apples to pineapples...the 'apple' part is there, only the two taste completely different.

Since we know that data gathered prior to the thermocouple was significantly more inaccurate and data gathered by todays technology is even more precise, we must understand that we can only draw inferences as opposed to reach definitive conclusions.

Today, 94L is out in the Atlantic. Look at the animation of Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW)on the CIMSS website and you can see a totally different interpretation of circulation. Compared to the two other circulations in the Atlantic...94L is a dud. Is the oil clean-up going to be further delayed by inaccurate weather forecasting as was the case with the supposed TS Bonnie? Please tell me it aint so.



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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
And in the "You can't make this stuff up dept"...

"My understanding of dissolved oil is that it is like if you take sugar and put it in a cup of hot tea...the molecules are gone."

----Whitehouse Energy Adviser Carol Browner,
who formerly headed the Environmental Protection Agency...

This quote was highlighted in Sundays "Pensacola News Journal" hardly a bastion of right-wing extremism.

When I posted this yesterday, Neapolitans' reply infered that this was a ruse or outright lie from the "radical right". That didn't sit too well with me. I would point out this level of ignorance no matter who said it, regardless of their polical affiliations. People need to know when our high officials are losing the bubble.


I was trying to let you off the hook, PD. ;-) First, the quote was taken out of context. Second, the ellipsis--which I realize was in the newspaper, and didn't come from you--makes it appear as though Browner is simply a moron. Browner made the rounds of the Sunday talk shows, and was asked repeatedly about last week's NOAA report on BP's Deepwater Horizon spill, a report which explains where the tens of millions of gallons of crude and dispersant have gone. That report itself states that about 25% of the oil that leaked either evaporated or dissolved into the Gulf water. Nobody--least of all Browner (who, by the way, is a highly-educated lawyer who never claimed to be an ocean scientist)--actually ever said that "The oil is gone like sugar dumped into a cup of tea." Now, I'll ask you: if you pour a little sugar onto the table next to your tea cup, you can see it, right? Now pick up that sugar, drop it in your tea or coffee, and give it a stir or two. Now can you see it? No, you can't. It's there, though...and that's what both Browner and the report stated; just because you can't see it doesn't mean it isn't there.

Can you not see the difference?

Anyway, as I said, the Radical Right--of which you may or may not be a member, I'm not sure--can certainly try to make it look as though Browner is stupid, but she actually stated something diametrically opposite what the Pensacola paper inferred. Nice try, though.
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2245. will45
those models are too far away from xtrap somethings gonna shift
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2244. Drakoen
Should be interesting to see what the dynamic models due with the relocation some of the models didn't have the system in the GOM until tomorrow. The tracks will probably shift west.
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2242. smuldy
Quoting Neapolitan:
I suppose that to to those for whom hurricanes and tropical storms are merely entertainment, a far-lower-than-predicted season would be a huge disappointment; to these type of folks, only a 2005-type year will fulfill their desire to see destruction visited upon the people of the Caribbean, Central America, and the U.S. They often act as though the North Atlantic is a huge demolition derby for which they've paid admission to watch one disaster after another.

However...to a scientist, a "busted" forecast--if it happens--only tells them that they know less than they thought they knew. The atmosphere is a hugely complex machine with multiple dynamic factors influencing every single little thing that happens, and while those factors are being discovered and studied, some hypotheses will pan out, and others won't. Such are the ways of science. So while the weather-as-entertainment crowd may feel downtrodden and morose if "only" an average hurricane season comes to pass, scientists won't be, as they know they need to get back to work...and, if nothing else, they've got a little more job security. ;-)

Having said that, I'm still sticking to my guns: 20/12/6.
I was in Miami Beach for 2005-06 and been back now for 08 and 10 and to be honest I have never had more fun than in 05. Storms are amazingly fun so long as a) you dont own something flat ie non condo b) you live right on the grid ie bayside or collins so FPL gets power back up at the day 2 max and c)no family/square job considerations and young enough to still know alot of 20 somethings looking for an excuse to party. Even 5 years later thats still me (28 now) so I'm hoping for a couple max cat 2 storms to hit here but that said I feel for those that have more responsibility and are more stuck when they do hit. I'm just a chaos person from tri state I loved blizzards growing up and always wanted them to hit and I love big storms down here. When I was in LA I was not hoping for Earthquakes cause I don't like the %s on something random and deadly like those, but for the most part hurricanes are an inconvenience in the 1st world not a life or death scenario save for the occasional 'perfect storm' of factors and people dumb enoungh to ride a cat 3 or higher below sea level in 2 stories or less when the only person alive dumber than them is running said country. Just my opinion of course and I don't wishcast cause i am too amateur to cast I just see the data and say ugh or cool and still wind up wrong more oft than not.
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Image not hotlinking. Link
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Thank you for your patience. I am learning a lot, but the learning curve is huge for someone that earned a c in their only weather-related college class. Especially when she took that class about 12 years ago and made a C in it :)
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2239. divdog
Quoting Jeff9641:


Cooler as 90 to 92 as opposed to 95 to 100.
baking instead of frying
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2238. will45
Quoting TXnovice:
Thanks. THis is what I was looking at:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 071330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SAT 07 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-069

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

on nhc


that is an old one
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting Jeff9641:


Cooler as 90 to 92 as opposed to 95 to 100.
lol
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2235. Drakoen
Looks like 94L is just off the coast of Southwestern Florida
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2233. Drakoen
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Thanks. THis is what I was looking at:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 071330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SAT 07 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-069

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

on nhc
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2231. GetReal
Over the past 36 hours, there has been NO appreciable pressure falls anywhere along the east Florida coastal reporting stations. This also goes for the buoys, ship reports, and reporting stations in the N. Bahamas.

Without any significant pressure falls at the surface, somewhere, I would not expect any rapid development (if any at all) with 94L.

Maybe it may have a chance once it gets in the GOM, and creates a little more distance from the ULL to its' east.
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2230. divdog
Quoting Jeff9641:


GFS portrays a different story and Ike's post verifies this. Post# 2210
cool air NEVER visits us this time of year and i mean NEVER. I hope that is right but i would bet my last dollar that it is not.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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