Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Ohmigod, Jeff9461 will be on here soon. Shields up!

JK, Jeff. ;-)
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Quoting FLdewey:
PWATs flirting with 2.75"


Hence thats why a flood watch is current in affect for sfl.
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Colin dying, three areas to watch 8/8/10
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IOW, I have yet to meet a Denier who was seeking scientific truth; every one I've ever met has seemed to intentionally disregard any all data that contradicts their prejudiced opinion, instead choosing to cherry-pick those little bits and pieces of out-of-context data to give themself some brief hope that the status quo is just peachy. That's not science; that's just plain dumb


You get paid for this, don't you?
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Quoting calusakat:
Wonderful thing is, Mother Nature doesn't bother with tabloid trash or internet trash, she simply does as she wishes.

There is hope after all.





Again, a statement from the American Geophysical Union, a nonprofit organization of 50,000 earth scientists:

"The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system--including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons--are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century. It is scientifically inconceivable that - after changing forest into cities, putting dust and soot into the atmosphere, putting millions of acres of desert into irrigated agriculture, and putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere - humans have not altered the natural course of the climate system."

We present data. You present opinions. That's science vs. wishful thinking...and I can assure that the former always wins.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Oh man it looks like the GOM is trying to get all wrapped up in a bow...lovely
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56, 57, 62 - So, what is that track for? Is there an Invest that hasn't been identified at NHC? I noticed the track on Stormpulse, but it was pulled up along with the system out in the Atlantic, not as a separate one.
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Quoting SLU:
AL 94 2010080812 BEST 0 303N 786W 25 1011 DB

Wow. That was fast. I thought they would at least wait for 6 to 12 more hours to see how much more the system would consolidate before labelling it an invest.


That caught me off-guard! And they skipped LO and took it right to a Disturbance.
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70. SLU
Quoting troy1993:
When is activity suppose to pick up in the tropical Atlantic where it will be favorable to support major well-developed tropical cyclones?


There will be nowhere to hide.
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This system will bring about some significant rainfall totals across the florida peninsula during the next 1-2 days.

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67. SLU
AL 94 2010080812 BEST 0 303N 786W 25 1011 DB

Wow. That was fast. I thought they would at least wait for 6 to 12 more hours to see how much more the system would consolidate before labelling it an invest.
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When is activity suppose to pick up in the tropical Atlantic where it will be favorable to support major well-developed tropical cyclones?
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Quoting aspectre:
from blog1569 surfmom "Moscow & China - YIKES anyone know how the dam in China is holding up?
Haven't been able to keep up with the rain numbers in that area.
"

"China's Three Gorges superstructure is now under threat from vast floating islands of rubbish and debris which have been swept into the Yangtze River by torrential rain and flooding."

"...debris has clogged a large swathe of the river, and the locks of the hydroelectric dam...are now at risk.
[...] More rain is forecast in the coming days."
That is one scary picture. If that dam ever failed, it would be a incomprehensible disaster.
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I guess the blog isn't going to be quiet after all now!!!
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Re: Post 29

This is so funny.

The Man Made Global Warming (MMGW) folks aka Alarmists shouting down the No It's Not (NIN) folks aka Deniers.

Today, the Alarmists will claim proof of Global Warming, citing any weather extreme as proof positive that MMGW is real and will kill us all. Worry not, the cold weather in the southern hemisphere will be attributable to MMGW, once they have had enough time to contrive a plausible explanation. Truth has taken a holiday in the world of weather science.

Wonderful thing is, Mother Nature doesn't bother with tabloid trash or internet trash, she simply does as she wishes.

There is hope after all.



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Odd track from the BAMM.

Sorta like:



About the closest.
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Quoting Baybuddy:

Oh, so skepticism is not allowed in science? Your labeling those how haven't made up thier minds as deniers onyl paints yours as an environmental religion, not a science. Just Grow a set and admit this to be what it is...Politics


Skepticism is perfectly fine. Skepticism is healthy. Skepticism is one of the basic tenets of the scientific method. But true scientific skepticism is grounded in this question: "Can the data really be true? Let me look at some more data before I make up my mind, and then keep looking at it even after my mind is made up.", whereas the typical GW denier simply laughs and says, "Yeah, an overhwhelming number of atmospheric scientists, along with nearly every bit of climatic data mankind has ever gathered--and not to mention every bit of common sense--says that our using the atmosphere as a great big toilet bowl is a really bad idea...but people with billions invested in maintaining the current fossil-fuel paradigm swear that all those data are lies and all those scientists are liars, so I choose to believe them."

IOW, I have yet to meet a Denier who was seeking scientific truth; every one I've ever met has seemed to intentionally disregard any all data that contradicts their prejudiced opinion, instead choosing to cherry-pick those little bits and pieces of out-of-context data to give themself some brief hope that the status quo is just peachy. That's not science; that's just plain dumb.
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from blog1569 surfmom "Moscow & China - YIKES anyone know how the dam in China is holding up?
Haven't been able to keep up with the rain numbers in that area.
"

"China's Three Gorges superstructure is now under threat from vast floating islands of rubbish and debris which have been swept into the Yangtze River by torrential rain and flooding."

"...debris has clogged a large swathe of the river, and the locks of the hydroelectric dam...are now at risk.
[...] More rain is forecast in the coming days."
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crown weather says the atlantic is to explode soon with all the ingredients coming together. there has been a number of ptential invests which have gone by the wayside. is this the calm before the storm or a precursor of things to come.
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94L
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Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10459
Morn CT..seems the ol Atlantic has spit out nuther one.

WUnderful.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530
Quoting Patrap:
We?


Well I can't say they, or she. Lol.

Morning Pat.
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Quoting Patrap:
Seems the "pre" folks are up and atum.

We dont use the "Pre: word ..itsa tad misleading.

When have you ever seen Dr. Masters or the NHC use the Word "pre" anything?


pre pare? LOL
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We?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530
We have 94L!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008081403
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010080812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942010
AL, 94, 2010080718, , BEST, 0, 316N, 782W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080800, , BEST, 0, 311N, 783W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080806, , BEST, 0, 307N, 785W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080812, , BEST, 0, 303N, 786W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
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AL 94 2010080812 BEST 0 303N 786W 25 1011 DB
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10459
blob is actually common in peer to peer Met discussion ... but I agree that the pre stuff is rather silly. Leave it at blob or convective masses.
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.."NOAA and the Internet is not a big truck,,or a series of tubes"..


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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good morning everyone

good morning nrtiwlnvragn is that pre-94L that we were talking about yesterday looks good oh and also take a look at that wave over western africa could become our next pre-95L


Yes, that is PGI25L. Shown below is the consensus track from Naval Postgraduate School.


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10459

NOAA is in Politics?

..a Talkng Point maybe?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL STORM DIANMU (T1004)
21:00 PM JST August 8 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Dianmu (994 hPa) located at 23.6N 125.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
45 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 27.5N 125.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 31.6N 126.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 35.0N 129.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Should we take "Pre"-cautions?

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530
Quoting Neapolitan:


Deniers have their minds made up that the planet isn't warming and/or that man isn't causing it to happen quickly. This despite--and in willful ignorance of--the simple but overwhelming and well-founded scientific facts emphatically indicating the opposite. So I realize the following will likely be just as ignored, but here goes anyway in response to your statement that the record-setting cold in South America can't be caused by GW:

The more one learns about how the earth's climate works, the more one realizes the complex interplay between multiple factors: ocean currents, air currents. Here's a nice explanation from the scientists at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute:

Confusion arises because a cooling can be a regional event, superimposed on top of continuously warming earth. Global warming is driven by the increased capture of solar energy due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide and methane) in the atmosphere, caused mainly by human activities. The warming has global consequences. The energy gained from higher greenhouse gas concentrations is distributed around the globe and affects many systems - warming the atmosphere, warming the oceans, increasing evaporation in some regions and precipitation in others, and melting glaciers...Complications arise when you consider how heat and water are moved around the planet. Warming is causing more water to evaporate from the tropics, more rainfall in subpolar and polar regions, and more ice to melt at high latitudes. As a result, fresh water is being lost from the tropics and added to the ocean at higher latitudes. In the North Atlantic Ocean, the additional fresh water can change ocean circulation patterns, disrupting or redirecting currents that now carry warm water to the north. Redirecting or slowing this "Atlantic heat pump" would mean colder winters in the northeast U.S. and Western Europe. But the heat gained from higher greenhouse gas concentrations is still in the climate system, just elsewhere. The result: a warmer earth, a colder North Atlantic.

For the record, here's a statement from the American Geophysical Union, a nonprofit organization of geophysicist not:

"The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system--including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons--are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century. It is scientifically inconceivable that - after changing forest into cities, putting dust and soot into the atmosphere, putting millions of acres of desert into irrigated agriculture, and putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere - humans have not altered the natural course of the climate system."

But go ahead, Deniers; I would definitely believe Limbaugh, Beck, Palin and the CEO of ExxonMobil before I'd put faith in the words of thousands of, you know, scientists. After all, what do they know? A Masters in the atmospheric sciences means nothing! ;-)

Oh, so skepticism is not allowed in science? Your labeling those how haven't made up thier minds as deniers onyl paints yours as an environmental religion, not a science. Just Grow a set and admit this to be what it is...Politics
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We could see a 10% with the disturbance just off Florida by 8 pm tonight, given its relatively close range to start developing (48 hours)
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Seems the "pre" folks are up and atum.

We dont use the "Pre" word ..itsa tad misleading.

When have you ever seen Dr. Masters or the NHC use the Word "pre" anything?

Its almost as non met as "Blob".
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530
Quoting CybrTeddy:
27. VERY interesting, we're going to have to watch it closely.
YUP!

I like that Rob Lightbown put the emphasis on the closer to home storm. The fish storms are setting the stage or paving the path for the coming weeks however.
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HWRF develops 93L.....Link
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Good Morning All!
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good morning everyone

good morning nrtiwlnvragn is that pre-94L that we were talking about yesterday looks good oh and also take a look at that wave over western africa could become our next pre-95L
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Quoting crosbyweatherfan:
Just tuned in this morning and noted discussion about activity in the GOMEX. I also saw someone say something about Tx/La. Can someone say a bit more? Is this related to the low off the cold front?
The CMC has something in the Gulf also.Link
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Jul 28, 2010
NOAA: Last decade was warmest, global warming 'undeniable'


As July continues to sizzle in much of the United States, a new U.S. report says the 2000-2009 decade was the Earth's warmest on record and "global warming is undeniable."

About 300 scientists from 48 countries contributed to the 2009 State of the Climate report released Wednesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

USA TODAY colleague Doyle Rice, who notes that global weather records go back to the 1880s, describes their report's findings:

Each of the last three decades has been much warmer than the decade before, it reports. At the time, the 1980 was the hottest decade on record. In the 1990s, every year was warmer than the average of the previous decade. And the 2000s were warmer still.

Specifically, the decade of the 2000s had a surface global temperature that was 0.96°F above the long-term (20th century) average. This shattered the 1990s value of 0.65°F above average, according to Thomas C. Patterson, chief scientist at the National Climatic Data Center....

The report focused on 10 indicators of a warming world, seven which are increasing and three declining. Rising over the decades are average air temperature, the ratio of water vapor to air, ocean heat content, sea-surface temperature, sea level, air temperature over the ocean and air temperature over land.

Indicators that are declining are snow cover, glaciers and sea ice.

"The temperature increase of one degree Fahrenheit over the past 50 years may seem small, but it has already altered our planet," said Deke Arndt, co-editor of the report and chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch of the data center.

"Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying and heat waves are more common," he says.

Last month was the warmest June on record and this year has had the warmest average temperature for January-June since record keeping began, NOAA reported last week.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.