Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I'm all for solar, wind, nuke, geo thermal, tidal energy and anywhere else we can find sources of energy. Still not enough, not nearly. Maybe we should outlaw beef. Cow farts put tons of methane in the air daily. Maybe all the George Soros and Michael Meyers and Al Gore types can start a tribunal like George Bernard Shaw advocated where they march us stupid people before a panel of judges and make us justify our existance.I can see it now. "Mr. Doug! What have you done for the enviornment this year"? Well sirs, I quit eating beef and planted a tree....


In fact, going vegitarian ia a great option. Or you can cut down to holidays. Cheaper cleaner and healthier - of course it takes some will power at first and, of course, sarcasm is much easier than actual effort.
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129. eddye
tropical chat plz

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Quoting btwntx08:

surface relections at 850 mb= 5000 ft


Sorry I was referring to your post #106.. While typing you posted the Surface reflection at 850mb. I got a good idea how the 850mb surface map works.. I was referring to the shear map with the colors.. do the colors represent or accentuate the shear??
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Quoting SouthALWX:

My stance? My current view is that what we have done this far will only contribute to minimal warming ... I want to see more evidence that points to disaster before I abandon our way of life for the past few generations.


Brilliant stance: earth running out of oil, America on it's knees sucking Arab oil hose, possible irriversible global warming... "I just need more proof before I change my lifestyle."

If you wait and there is global warming, we are all ruined. If you change and global warming was a hoax, you can still drive your electric car and use your solar panels.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm currently in terms of track in agreement with the BAMM model. Considering that track along with the very warm northern GOMEX SSTs along with the favorable upper level winds that should be present...
heard the favorable conditions story too many times already this season. I would be inclined to believe a weak system with minimal effects until we really see s system get cranked up. Probably just another colin or bonnie.
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Q&A: Professor Phil Jones Interesting graphic on trends.

http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/13/jeff-masters-sets-the-record-straight-on-dana-milbanks-column /

Audio in the link for the call so you can hear it for yourself.

Too bad AGW rules now on this blog :(

Manmade Global Warming: The Solution

Top right of this blog --

WunderPoll Results:

Do you believe human-caused global warming is a significant factor contributing to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010?
Yes 64 (37.6%)
No 79 (46.5%)
Not sure27 (15.9%)
Total: 170 (100%)
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Are the colors on this map showing surface reflections?? or simply accentuating the shear on the map??
That's vorticity at the 850mb level.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good vorticity associated with 93L.
Just look at the mimic-tpw for it! Its a very nice looking swirl http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
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122. Inyo
global warming deniers will cry and cry about their H2. then they accuse you of making them go back to the stone age. I didn't know caveman had other cars (but not H2s).
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Quoting btwntx08:
Good vorticity associated with 93L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting btwntx08:


Are the colors on this map showing surface reflections?? or simply accentuating the shear on the map??
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Quoting weatherman12345:
Does anybody think that this sytem can develop into anything before it reaches FL???
no
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Quoting breald:


Why so extreme? Why not start with not buying a suburban for a family of three?? Or supporting wind energy?


I'm all for solar, wind, nuke, geo thermal, tidal energy and anywhere else we can find sources of energy. Still not enough, not nearly. Maybe we should outlaw beef. Cow farts put tons of methane in the air daily. Maybe all the George Soros and Michael Meyers and Al Gore types can start a tribunal like George Bernard Shaw advocated where they march us stupid people before a panel of judges and make us justify our existance.I can see it now. "Mr. Doug! What have you done for the enviornment this year"? Well sirs, I quit eating beef and planted a tree....
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Why does change have to be an all-or-nothing thing? I hear few non-radical types talking about "abandoning our way of life. The thing is, though, we're not even to that point as a nation; most people still believe in the fairy tale that the planet is not warming, and until/unless the salient truth can set in and our lawmakers start doing something besides padding their pocketbooks with contributions from Big Energy, we're doomed. Period.

Are you refuting or agreeing with me? Im pretty sure I didnt say anything along the lines of all or nothing
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Whats new with the watching paint drying cult ? Is it time yet? When do I shift into panic mode? Oh oh, more GW must not be here yet.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
trues, I see no reason why a Prius or Honda Fit can't tow a boat or any other kind of trailer.




Why so extreme? Or supporting wind energy?

we all know how that works in tornado alley...


Well it certainly works in other countries. We have a few of them up here as well. It would be a heck of a lot better than trying to clean up oil from our oceans and food supply. How could you disagree with that?
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I'm currently in terms of track in agreement with the BAMM model. Considering that track along with the very warm northern GOMEX SSTs along with the favorable upper level winds that should be present...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting SouthALWX:

My stance? Sure we can affect climate. I think everyone is in agreement that if the world's nuclear arsenal were to be detonated, climat change would follow. My current view is that what we have done this far will only contribute to minimal warming ... I want to see more evidence that points to disaster before I abandon our way of life for the past few generations.


Why does change have to be an all-or-nothing thing? I hear few non-radical types talking about "abandoning our way of life". The thing is, though, we're not even to that point as a nation; most people still believe in the fairy tale that the planet is not warming, and until/unless the salient truth can set in and our lawmakers start doing something besides padding their pocketbooks with contributions from Big Energy, we're doomed. Period.

As with anything that needs fixing, accepting that there is a problem is the first step on the road to recovery. But we're not there yet...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13470
Quoting breald:


Why so extreme? Why not start with not buying a suburban for a family of three??

true, I see no reason why a Prius or Honda Fit can't tow a boat or any other kind of trailer.


Why so extreme? Or supporting wind energy?

we all know how that works in tornado alley...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well.. I wouldn't say that yet. The gulf SST's are extremely warm and favorable, that's when we need to watch it.
Very true.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Hmm I dont think the models are nuts with 94L. It is going to follow that massive high that has brought all thsi heat to the Gulf Coast. I welcome 94L as it will being needed rain and a drop in temps. Doesnt really have a shot to be more than a 30-40kt storm and we get Thunderstorms worse than that.


Well.. I wouldn't say that yet. The gulf SST's are extremely warm and favorable, that's when we need to watch it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23627
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Hmm I dont think the models are nuts with 94L. It is going to follow that massive high that has brought all thsi heat to the Gulf Coast. I welcome 94L as it will being needed rain and a drop in temps. Doesnt really have a shot to be more than a 30-40kt storm and we get Thunderstorms worse than that.
Bring me some rain!
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Doug, we go back to caveman days and live off of the land and drag our spouses around by their hair.

Oh wait, then dinosaur farts will be adding too much methane to the atmosphere and deplete the ozone. LOL


Why so extreme? Why not start with not buying a suburban for a family of three?? Or supporting wind energy?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
...COLIN MOVING NEAR BERMUDA...WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 8
Location: 32.0°N 65.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb
get your forks out...
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Hmm I dont think the models are nuts with 94L. It is going to follow that massive high that has brought all thsi heat to the Gulf Coast. I welcome 94L as it will being needed rain and a drop in temps. Doesnt really have a shot to be more than a 30-40kt storm and we get Thunderstorms worse than that.
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...COLIN MOVING NEAR BERMUDA...WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 8
Location: 32.0°N 65.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
97. SLU
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


That caught me off-guard! And they skipped LO and took it right to a Disturbance.


It is still largely disjointed. There is very little convection near the estimated center. A bit too premature for my money.
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Doug, we go back to caveman days and live off of the land and drag our spouses around by their hair.

Oh wait, then dinosaur farts will be adding too much methane to the atmosphere and deplete the ozone. LOL
\


Yuk yuk yuk chuckle chuckle!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ok Nea. Assuming you're correct, whats the solution and how do we implement it?


Doug, we go back to caveman days and live off of the land and drag our spouses around by their hair.

Oh wait, then dinosaur farts will be adding too much methane to the atmosphere and deplete the ozone. LOL
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Again, a statement from the American Geophysical Union, a nonprofit organization of 50,000 earth scientists:

"The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system--including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons--are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century. It is scientifically inconceivable that - after changing forest into cities, putting dust and soot into the atmosphere, putting millions of acres of desert into irrigated agriculture, and putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere - humans have not altered the natural course of the climate system."

We present data. You present opinions. That's science vs. wishful thinking...and I can assure that the former always wins.

My stance? Sure we can affect climate. I think everyone is in agreement that if the world's nuclear arsenal were to be detonated, climat change would follow. My current view is that what we have done this far will only contribute to minimal warming ... I want to see more evidence that points to disaster before I abandon our way of life for the past few generations.
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Quoting btwntx08:
There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.

models been showing something in the gom for days now lol
and
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36 Patrap "Its almost as non-met as 'Blob'."

Looking at satellite photos, I can't tell the difference between LowLevelCirculation and an UpperLevelLow. Is it my fault that I can't tell the difference between a buncha clouds squished together from a mess of thunderstorms or a MesoscaleConvectiveSystem?
Well obviously, yes.
But still, 'blob' is a handy word useful in pointing at something interesting for those of us who aren't meteorologists or dedicated amateurs.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
guess it should be added to the never ending list, pre-caster


addcaster --- LMAO
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Looking at RGB satellite loops it seems to me that the circulation of 93L is opened on the southern side. I also see we have 94L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Neapolitan:


Ohmigod, Jeff9461 will be on here soon. Shields up!

JK, Jeff. ;-)
!!!! .....oops. Wrong Jeff....I thought Destin Jeff was coming. This is his favorite graph.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
IOW, I have yet to meet a Denier who was seeking scientific truth; every one I've ever met has seemed to intentionally disregard any all data that contradicts their prejudiced opinion, instead choosing to cherry-pick those little bits and pieces of out-of-context data to give themself some brief hope that the status quo is just peachy. That's not science; that's just plain dumb


You get paid for this, don't you?


No. Though I ought to, I present it gratis as a public service to my fellow Earth travelers--especially those bent on its ruination. Consider it on the house... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13470
Ok Nea. Assuming you're correct, whats the solution and how do we implement it?
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Quoting thelmores:


pre pare? LOL
guess it should be added to the never ending list, pre-caster
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
I like the purple track the best..:)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Ohmigod, Jeff9461 will be on here soon. Shields up!

JK, Jeff. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13470

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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