Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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I didn't start it.
But I'll give it a rest.
Hey NOTJFV..Ya might wann take that bs post down before the blog cops get ya.
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GW is off topic today. If you want to talk about the heatwave, the monsoon that is causing trouble or the tropics that's on topic. Take GW somewhere else, not like there isn't a hundred blogs dedicated to it. Save the GW on here for post-season.
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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
I guess everyone knows we have 94L right
whoppie
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Quoting SouthALWX:
How on earth can you argue that Im wrong? I agree with observed data. That data leads me to the conclusion that it isnt that major of an issue.


But don't you see the contradiction inherent in that statement? If one agrees with the overwhelming GW data, then one can't possibly come to the conclusion that it isn't a major issue. To me, that's akin to saying, "I agree with the medical data showing that my lifetime three-pack-a-day cigarette habit has led to my having high blood pressure, emphysema, and now inoperable lung cancer...but I don't think it's that major an issue."

We're each entitled to our own opinions, of course, but as I've said before, I'll base my opinions on what the vast and overwhelming majority of earth scientists increasingly believe: the planet is warming rapidly, mankind is making it happen, and we're in for a world of hurt if we don't do something about it, and now.
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Repost
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I guess everyone knows we have 94L right
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This blog is out of control so let me add to the garbage.
Y'all can do what you want but I will continue to eat beef, drive my SUV and use lights that actually work when I turn on the switch. My grandkids can deal with a problem if we actually have one.
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sarcasm is much easier than actual effort.

Yes it is.

However I maintain that even if we in the USA all quit eating beef, (and destroy a whole industry in the process, more jobs lost anyone?) and drive itty-bitty cars or ride our bicycles everywhere, its a wasted effort unless
China and the rest of the world do the same. Call me pessimist if you will. I prefer "realist" tho.


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Sorry weather bloggers. No more from me today.
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Link
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Interesting what is going on and around FL weather...
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Link to S.A.R. helicopter photo series:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dbsteers/
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Well Maybe your backyard is a good start for a windmill farm..... I have one and solar panels... What have you done???


Well, I rent an apartment in the city so it is not up to me.

I do own a car but will use mass transit when possible but walk most of the time. The beauty of urban living.

Now, I am really out. But would love to talk to you about your wind farm and solar panels. Maybe another time.
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Quoting SouthALWX:
Lol is it just me or did my middle of the road stance get bashed more than those who dont agree with any warming at all? How on earth can you argue that Im wrong? I agree with observed data. That data leads me to the conclusion that it isnt that major of an issue. Like the guy said "If you wait and there is global warming, we are all ruined. If you change and global warming was a hoax, you can still drive your electric car and use your solar panels." These individuals are using AGW as a crutch to forward their agendas they had LONG before AGW theory came to light.
Not really, I'm using common sense. What is the point of being against trying to be energy efficient? The 'green nazis want us to stop sending money to terrorist countries. But I say, no to green nazis.' Hooray, you have saved us from green nazis.
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GW talk = snore

Like it or not, it has been a snooze for August so far.
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Thank you for the link to Dave's Landslide Blog.
I had found it earlier while checking out news of the Meager Creek Landslide/Debris Flow then lost it.
One theory for the trigger for the B.C. event is that the retreating glacier upstream relaxes support for unstable rock and unconsolidated deposits on the steep mountain slopes miles away from the point where the debris flow dams the larger river.
The series of images from the S.A.R. helicopter
Just about made me air sick
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Quoting SouthALWX:

THATS EXACTLY IT! A just cause gained through lies is not just at all. Just ask the millions of people still upset about not finding WMDs ..... I agree we should pursue alternative energy but not by using a theory that isnt proven.
Huh? Most of the people involved don't think it's a hoax so it doesn't qualify as a lie, as ignorance at the worst if that's your inclination. Still, when the question is the survival of millions of people, your moral niceties seem a bit stretched. My guess is that you have your butt covered re global warming or believe you have or you wouldn't be so blase about it.
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Quoting btwntx08:

represents how strong shear is with white lines indicating increasing shear while blues ones meaning decrease in shear



I just learned something today!! Thank you!
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TropicalDepressionColin poised to pass 41miles(66kilometres)west of Bermuda in ~1hour
Copy&paste 29.0N65.8W-29.4N65.7W, 29.4N65.7W-29.6N65.6W, 29.6N65.6W-29.7N65.6W, 29.7N65.6W-29.8N65.6W, 29.8N65.6W-30.7N65.6W, 30.7N65.6W-31.2N65.6W, 31.2N65.6W-32.0N65.6W, 32.3n64.9w-32.3n65.6w, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.
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Lol is it just me or did my middle of the road stance get bashed more than those who dont agree with any warming at all? How on earth can you argue that Im wrong? I agree with observed data. That data leads me to the conclusion that it isnt that major of an issue. Like the guy said "If you wait and there is global warming, we are all ruined. If you change and global warming was a hoax, you can still drive your electric car and use your solar panels." These individuals are using AGW as a crutch to forward their agendas they had LONG before AGW theory came to light.
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You know things are slow when we are talking about beef and GW lmao.
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Quoting SeniorPoppy:
There have been quote on quote more "favorable conditions" developing since the ladder half of July. The dry air has been a major factor with plenty of shear hindering development of potential systems thus far. It has been all about hype so far. Until I see it, I will believe it.
I'm with you .. talk is just that talk
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There have been quote on quote more "favorable conditions" developing since the ladder half of July. The dry air has been a major factor with plenty of shear hindering development of potential systems thus far. It has been all about hype so far. Until I see it, I will believe it.
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Quoting breald:


It is funny to listen to some bash alternate energy, such as wind farms, with comments like they would work in tornado alley. As if putting a huge environmentally, friendly wind mill up is any more odd than building this huge contraption to drill deep into our earth.

Off for my Sunday morning hike with my dogs. TTYL.


Well Maybe your backyard is a good start for a windmill farm..... I have one and solar panels... What have you done???
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Hello.. Here in South Florida..

Winds are WSW...

Expected Shift ESE Tommorow...

Is a System forming offshore of South florida?

It appears the system is moving south..







Winds have a westerly component all along the Florida east coast currently. Looks to me that something forming off the east coast is going to move SW across FL into the Gulf.
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Quoting greentortuloni:


Brilliant stance: earth running out of oil, America on it's knees sucking Arab oil hose, possible irriversible global warming... "I just need more proof before I change my lifestyle."

If you wait and there is global warming, we are all ruined. If you change and global warming was a hoax, you can still drive your electric car and use your solar panels.
We should build giant plugs for all of the volcanic craters, tell China to care about global warming, and construct a giant solar power generator across the U.S. Mexico border.For starters of course!
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Quoting Ossqss:
Q&A: Professor Phil Jones Interesting graphic on trends.

http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/13/jeff-masters-sets-the-record-straight-on-dana-milbanks-column /

Audio in the link for the call so you can hear it for yourself.

Too bad AGW rules now on this blog :(

Manmade Global Warming: The Solution


A lot of us do this: pellet stoves using pellets made at the local sawmill, biking to work, led lights, vegitarian. The problem with that article is that the people who are worried are already doing something but that is not enough. It's the Hummer drivers and others who could make the biggest effect: calculate the difference in changing a 9 mpg Hummer for a 19 mpg SUV versus changing a 25 mpg family car for a 60 mpg high efficiency car. Changing the Hummer makes a much greater effect. similarly, one fat lard butt eating steak every night going vegitarian makes more difference than anything a lot of vegitarians can change in their diet.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
any ideas when pre-95L will be taged pre-95L being SE of 93L oh and possibly pre-96L over W africa
wow gettin a little ahead of ourselves aren't we. things just don't look that impressive right now which is a good thing
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Going to be a wet couple of days for portions Florida.
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Quoting greentortuloni:


In fact, going vegitarian ia a great option. Or you can cut down to holidays. Cheaper cleaner and healthier - of course it takes some will power at first and, of course, sarcasm is much easier than actual effort.


It is funny to listen to some bash alternate energy, such as wind farms, with comments like they would work in tornado alley. As if putting a huge environmentally, friendly wind mill up is any more odd than building this huge contraption to drill deep into our earth.

Off for my Sunday morning hike with my dogs. TTYL.
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any ideas when pre-95L will be taged pre-95L being SE of 93L oh and possibly pre-96L over W africa
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Quoting BreadandCircuses:


LOL, that reminded me of this gem of on an artcle from the wackos over at PETA.


OFFSET AL GORE'S ECO-UNFRIENDLY DIET!


Offset Al Gore's Eco-Unfriendly Diet!

PETA appreciates the work that Al Gore has done to raise awareness about the problem of global warming. But Gore%u2014who once said, "[W]e will face a string of terrible catastrophes unless we act to prepare ourselves and deal with the underlying causes of global warming"%u2014would probably be the first to tell you that saving the planet will require a lot more than raising awareness. The key to stemming the tide of climate change is to make personal changes that will help reduce global warming. So it's a bit of a mystery why Gore continues to eat animals and ignores the overwhelming evidence that eating meat is the number one cause of global warming.

The following are a few inconvenient truths that the former V.P. ignores:

* A major United Nations study determined that the meat industry generates 40 percent more greenhouse-gas emissions than all the cars, trucks, SUVs, ships, and planes in the world combined.
* Researchers at the University of Chicago concluded that going vegan is 50 percent more effective in combating the climate crisis than switching to a hybrid car.
* The official handbook of the Live Earth concerts that Gore helped organize acknowledges that not eating meat is "the single most effective thing" you can do to reduce your climate change impact (emphasis in original).

Since Gore's addiction to meat is apparently stronger than his desire to secure a better future for our planet, we're asking those who recognize that actions speak louder than words to help offset Gore's greenhouse-gas emissions by pledging to go vegetarian for 30 days.

By switching from a meat-based diet to a vegetarian diet for only 30 days, you will prevent the equivalent of more than 270 pounds of carbon dioxide from being emitted into the Earth's atmosphere. That means more pollution would be prevented than if you left your car at home every weekday and walked 20 miles.

PETA will help you stick to your pledge by sending you mouthwatering recipes and advice on making the transition. What do you have to lose, besides a few extra pounds and maybe those pills as your cholesterol levels improve? You have the world to gain! So be a green hero, and do what Al Gore is too scared to do: Go vegetarian! Take the pledge now.

Update: In addition to OffsetAlGore.com, we also plan to purchase OffsetAlGore.eco once the new domain becomes available. You can learn more on The PETA FilesLink


This would also take away the need for Obamacare! Less meat, healthier people, less doctor and hospital visits.... Hmmmmm Might be on to something...
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CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 08 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST IN E. GULF NEAR 26.5N 83.5W AT 10/1800Z.
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Quoting greentortuloni:


Brilliant stance: earth running out of oil, America on it's knees sucking Arab oil hose, possible irriversible global warming... "I just need more proof before I change my lifestyle."

If you wait and there is global warming, we are all ruined. If you change and global warming was a hoax, you can still drive your electric car and use your solar panels.

THATS EXACTLY IT! A just cause gained through lies is not just at all. Just ask the millions of people still upset about not finding WMDs ..... I agree we should pursue alternative energy but not by using a theory that isnt proven.
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Quoting Walshy:


oh..ok thats why we're under a flood watch
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Quoting SouthALWX:

Are you refuting or agreeing with me? Im pretty sure I didnt say anything along the lines of all or nothing


You stated "I want to see more evidence that points to disaster before I abandon our way of life". How else can that possibly be interpreted?

Furthermore, how much more evidence do you guys need? How hot does the planet have to get before Deniers are convinced? How many glaciers need to melt? How many massive heat waves do we need to see? How thin does the Arctic ice need to get? How many extended droughts do there need to be? How much earlier does spring need to come? How much longer does summer need to last? How much more coral needs to be bleached? How many more than the 97%--and growing--of credible earth scientists who believe AGW is a major issue do there need to be?

Yeesh...
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I'm all for solar, wind, nuke, geo thermal, tidal energy and anywhere else we can find sources of energy. Still not enough, not nearly. Maybe we should outlaw beef. Cow farts put tons of methane in the air daily. Maybe all the George Soros and Michael Meyers and Al Gore types can start a tribunal like George Bernard Shaw advocated where they march us stupid people before a panel of judges and make us justify our existance.I can see it now. "Mr. Doug! What have you done for the enviornment this year"? Well sirs, I quit eating beef and planted a tree....


In fact, going vegitarian ia a great option. Or you can cut down to holidays. Cheaper cleaner and healthier - of course it takes some will power at first and, of course, sarcasm is much easier than actual effort.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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