Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Western Atlantic - Water Vapor Loop
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TD Five satellite in the West Pacific. This is a very large storm at the moment, but is no longer expected to head westwards as PAGASA was predicting last night.

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I see a possible low level circulation trying to get going over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
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Quoting KanKunKid:
Use one word to describe the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season so far:

Fizzle.


Lack of patience, etc.
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I have a serious question, thinking about it. This system off the coast of Florida is basically sitting over if not ontop of the Gulf Stream. We all know what the ocean temps near Florida are. What is the chance if it can develop some sort of spin with the way its moving, that we could see it becoming something just from where its sitting? Remember its moving SSW at 4mph
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Quoting CycloneUK:
Coldest Arctic summer on record. Explain that away!



Coldest on record? Says who? Much of Europe was blanketed with snow last winter but the Arctic region was simultaneously warmer than normal.

Current Arctic sea surface temperature anomalies. Notice all the warm areas near the coast and Hudson's Bay:

Link
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20-30 knots wind shear will keep development minimal for now. Low level circulation is trying to develop on the northern side of the convection, but again NNWrly shear is prohibiting development at this time.
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202. NotJFV 11:39 AM EDT on August 08, 2010
"I got this report from Nortons....anyone else get a similar deal"

Yes, the site is red flagged by Norton at this time. McAfee shows green. Not sure what is up.

I submitted a ticket through the support link several days ago on the Adware item as directed by Admin. They are working with Norton to clear things up on that one. The others are new as of today. I would suggest you submit one on them. Bottom of the page for the link to Support. L8R
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Okay 94L is showing something of an oddity if you consider what its movement is, I have not seen a system move SSW that was even being considered a tropical system of nature in a while. Is it on the outer edge of the A/B High or is there some other influence on its movement?


Most likely that its on periphery of the SE ridge across the SE US.
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People are only saying we had had a "fizzle" of a season so far because we haven't seen many strong systems other than Alex. It will come, just those type of people don't have any patience.
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Sorry; upper level winds.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Ill stop the GW... But I must agree with Doug.. There just isnt an easy answer...

Is this thing around me here in Fl. going to develop???? I mean on 01 I went on Vacation to the Keys and day freaking one we get tropical weather developing.... I spend just about everyday since the beginning of the season on this site and the day I go on vacation (thats yesterday) I get tropical weather.


I guess that means if we get something here in FL it's your fault, lol? No more vacations for you!
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Quoting KanKunKid:
Use one word to describe the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season so far:

Fizzle.


people in TX and mexico would disagree with you probably
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Quoting KanKunKid:
Use one word to describe the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season so far:

Fizzle.


Lets notice you did say SO FAR, bw nice to stay that way, however.....
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Remember, this was our FIRST STORM. It's likely that we will see more than one hurricane this season, and if we do, those hurricanes can easily be as intense or more intense than this one.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Of course, they are proliferating already. Mosquitoes, jellyfish, and all sorts of fungi and vector-borne diseases. Toxic algal blooms are starting to pop up all over the world's oceans. If the oceans become largely devoid of fish and filled with Nomura's jellyfish, let's say, what will all the coastal dwellers eat, before they have to evacuate into ever-shrinking arable land when the sea level rises?

Animals that eat jelly fish? That was simply an illustration to point out the uncertainty in all of this. We simply don't know. I know for a fact that there are a lot of equatorial fisheries that would expand N-S with warming.
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Okay 94L is showing something of an oddity if you consider what its movement is, I have not seen a system move SSW that was even being considered a tropical system of nature in a while. Is it on the outer edge of the A/B High or is there some other influence on its movement?
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Ill stop the GW... But I must agree with Doug.. There just isnt an easy answer...

Is this thing around me here in Fl. going to develop???? I mean on 01 I went on Vacation to the Keys and day freaking one we get tropical weather developing.... I spend just about everyday since the beginning of the season on this site and the day I go on vacation (thats yesterday) I get tropical weather.
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Coldest Arctic summer on record. Explain that away!

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Quoting SouthALWX:

This is the issue here, you are not posting on science. You are posing the flawed fail-safe argument. "Let's act anyway, if we're wrong we'll be better off anyway" That's not science. I think it's your moral niceties that are getting in the way here. Not mine.

Not that I'm arguing this point, just illustration.. Say our climate models are right and we gain say .. 5F globally ... How can they resolve the effect that will have? Is it not plausible that a 5F increase would open up more land for agriculture? Ease of trade? Say we lose some species to extinction. Is it not plausible that new species or older species better accustomed to the heat would simply proliferate due to greater range and less competition? Again, let's see who is more concerned about moral niceties. Me personally I could care less if a random tropical decoration fish goes extinct. It doesn't really matter. Animals go extinct. THAT is science.


Of course, they are proliferating already. Mosquitoes, jellyfish, and all sorts of fungi and vector-borne diseases. Toxic algal blooms are starting to pop up all over the world's oceans. If the oceans become largely devoid of fish and filled with Nomura's jellyfish, let's say, what will all the coastal dwellers eat, before they have to evacuate into ever-shrinking arable land when the sea level rises?
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Quoting Autistic2:
I live about 40 miles s of jax. fl. Was thinking about going for a boat ride this afternoon, then I see 94l on this blog but not the NHC. Any body know whats up with that? Maybee boat ride NEXT we\ek end?


It's on the Navy site as well
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Quoting FLdewey:


Much better, thanks for asking. ;-)
LOL, no problem.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Meanwhile, 94L is our first trough split of the year with potential to develop.



Looking over the models, ECMWF shows a 1008 mb low in the Gulf by 96 hours from 94L and a CATL system from 93L.

NOGAPS somewhat develops 94L and does not develop 93L at all.

CMC develops 94L, not really 93L.

GFS doesn't do much with either system.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565

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I got this report from Nortons....anyone else get a similar deal
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Quoting CapeObserver:


Funny not even a mention of the area off the FL east coast and 3 hrs later we have an invest.
Likely to get mentioned at 2PM EDT.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
1250 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN




Funny not even a mention of the area off the FL east coast and 3 hrs later we have an invest.
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I live about 40 miles s of jax. fl. Was thinking about going for a boat ride this afternoon, then I see 94l on this blog but not the NHC. Any body know whats up with that? Maybee boat ride NEXT we\ek end?
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Quoting FLdewey:
LMAO... The global warming trolls do more damage to this blog than the kiddies any day.
How has climatology been doing?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting KanKunKid:


I have solar and wind, but I don't have a choice. But Northern Indiana is in tornado alley and if you ever drive north of Lafayette on I65 you will see hundreds of wind generators more than Palm Springs CA area. It's a crop duster's nightmare out there!

lol
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if you notice the NHC has taken note of the system in the Atlantic and has put a 70% chance of it becoming something of notice. Gotta consider that Colin was the upbringer of sense for the season to really pop. All considerations in place, this is going to be a busy rest of the hurricane season if Dr. Grays forecast is to be correct.
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upper level winds
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TD Five is expected to enter the Sea of Japan as a tropical storm. Even there, SSTs are expected to be a warm 27-28C.



The total death toll from flooding in Pakistan, China and India is close to 2,950.
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94L is interesting to say the least.
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When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the ! button and ignored.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
1250 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN


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This blog is out of control today...anyone interested in talking about the tropics can head over to my blog.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Any good mets want to give a shot at what's going on with 94L? Future?
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Quoting greentortuloni:
Huh? Most of the people involved don't think it's a hoax so it doesn't qualify as a lie, as ignorance at the worst if that's your inclination. Still, when the question is the survival of millions of people, your moral niceties seem a bit stretched. My guess is that you have your butt covered re global warming or believe you have or you wouldn't be so blase about it.

This is the issue here, you are not posting on science. You are posing the flawed fail-safe argument. "Let's act anyway, if we're wrong we'll be better off anyway" That's not science. I think it's your moral niceties that are getting in the way here. Not mine.

Not that I'm arguing this point, just illustration.. Say our climate models are right and we gain say .. 5F globally ... How can they resolve the effect that will have? Is it not plausible that a 5F increase would open up more land for agriculture? Ease of trade? Say we lose some species to extinction. Is it not plausible that new species or older species better accustomed to the heat would simply proliferate due to greater range and less competition? Again, let's see who is more concerned about moral niceties. Me personally I could care less if a random tropical decoration fish goes extinct. It doesn't really matter. Animals go extinct. THAT is science.
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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
I guess everyone knows we have 94L right


Hmmm 94L and not so much as a crayon out of the box.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Is it Drifting SW?

I think we might see a TD form before making landfall in C.FL
i think we see a blob hit central florida
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I didn't start it.
But I'll give it a rest.
Hey NOTJFV..Ya might wann take that bs post down before the blog cops get ya.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.