Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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There is noting but dry air above 30N.

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94L is clearly moving SSW or even due South at this time, not much Westward movement at all

this is very common for development off of troughs that the shear is currently high; the shear will drop
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That is true, she dived like Andrew did to the Southwest, but both did so at the last momment. Katrina was supposed to come through broward but dived sw at the last momment.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:


appears to be some sort of spin off the coast of Florida now
at what lon and lat do you see the spin? thanks ahead of time.
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276. xcool
TO ME 94L MOVE WSW IMO
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
People are only saying we had had a "fizzle" of a season so far because we haven't seen many strong systems other than Alex. It will come, just those type of people don't have any patience.

Exactly. Temperatures off the coast are extremely warm.

Temperatures have been extremely warm all over the Atlantic basin this season and they are the primary reason for all of the hype. Thus far, the temperatures haven't made a rat's a$$ bit of difference. I know, I know, it's coming. I need patience. And I say to you, I will believe it when I see it. Not saying it won't happen mind you, but show me the money, so to speak. Until then, all the chicken littles need to quit crying about the sky falling because it desensitizes folks and in a future season when all hell does break loose, no one will listen.
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Quoting divdog:
sya that 3 times fast


haha but seriously is that whats happening?
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For 94L to develop, it needs to stay clear of the 20-40 knot shear it remains engulfed in.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ok Nea, I posed this question to you earlier.

Assuming you're correct.
Whats the solution and how do we implement it?


Something like this: Link
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270. xcool
We've go have to watch 94L closely GOM SST
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Didn't Katrina move SW when crossing south florida?
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Quoting ho77yw00d:
QUESTION... so is all the rain and stuff from the west heading east going to merge with the blob from the east and come back to the west?
sya that 3 times fast
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755

Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Ya know i was thinking, we had tornados popping up everywhere and I wonder if we had 94L developing as early as early evening last night. Those storms in Orlando and here are evidence of something that was forming off the coast of Florida, is this a true thinking on the formation of 94L?
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Quoting CycloneUK:


The data comes from about 50 stations above 80N latitude. Here's the Link

And Antarctica?





This is expected. Stronger Katabatic winds.
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Quoting CapeObserver:


You can repost it as many times as you want. Would seem no one's biting. Plenty of tropical weather to discuss.



He's backing it up with hard data from the Danes. Good for you CycloneUK!
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263. xcool
MiamiHurricanes09 .i never logout.
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QUESTION... so is all the rain and stuff from the west heading east going to merge with the blob from the east and come back to the west?
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
The storm off the coast of Florida is about the size of the state itself. Conditions would be felt across the state.
if it becomes more than a blob which is questionable at this point.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
I have a serious question, thinking about it. This system off the coast of Florida is basically sitting over if not ontop of the Gulf Stream. We all know what the ocean temps near Florida are. What is the chance if it can develop some sort of spin with the way its moving, that we could see it becoming something just from where its sitting? Remember its moving SSW at 4mph


Hmm, very interesting.



I had a dream a while ago about a low pressure system and convection sinking southward from Ontario/Quebec before settling over the Gulf Stream before developing near the Florida Strait/NE Gulf. Since this is moving against the Gulf Stream in moderate shear, I think it's possible it could develop as a subtropical system (like 95L last invest cycle probably did).

Also, 92L is not dead. It's still over the Yucatan.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


There are very few animals other than humans that eat jellyfish 2 metres long. The sudden jellyfish blooms will start choking out the other marine life, and acidification and warmer oceans will threaten coral reef ecosystems. Bottom fishing will also not work, as some of those fish can live upwards of 100 years and reproduce very slowly, and so commercial fishing will deplete their populations very quickly.

Equatorial fisheries often depend of colder water. Off Peru, for example, the Humboldt's cold water provide plankton for large populations of fish. Plankton of the world's oceans have dropped as much as 40% in the last 60 years. El Nino, which warms the oceans off Peru threatens these equatorial fisheries. The only thing that will expand in this case is oceanic desert, while the best fisheries will be piled up near the Arctic and Antarctic regions, vulnerable to oil spills from increased shipping.

Read again, I said illustration. And deep water wont warm by much if any and upwelling will still occur and life will still flourish. Life is much more resilient and flexible than most would believe. Now that's enough of this nonsense.
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257. xcool
000
NOUS42 KNHC 081500 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 08 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-070 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST IN E. GULF NEAR 26.5N 83.5W AT 10/1800Z
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Quoting xcool:
Hey xcool! Been on Storm2k all day...
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Quoting CapeObserver:


They have 94L at about 31N but it's clear on the water vapor that the ridge has expanded much farther south pushing it SSW.



Climatology suggest that storms moving to the sw in our basin have a very difficult time organizing.
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252. xcool
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Below is the current 26°C isotherm depth chart. Note the hundreds of thousands of square miles of ocean with 26°C or warmer water down to between 250' (green) and 325' (yellow) below the surface. There's also a growing pool of water in the northwestern Caribbean where 26°C water extends down to nearly 500'. (The blue shading in the Bahamas, and along the eastern coasts of both continents and the Gulf of Mexico, doesn't mean warm water isn't far from the surface; it means, rather, that the water is shallow in those areas. That is, there is no water deeper than roughly 100'.)

Come and get it!

Source

Here's the current Sea Surface Temperature map. Note that most of the non-land area in this image is capable of sustaining tropical cyclones; only those areas in blue and located outside the solid red line are too cool for TCs. Pay special attention to the expanding area of surface temperatures at or above 32°C (about 90°F) on Florida's west coast, in parts of the Bahamas, at the northern edge of Cuba, and stretched out in the western Atlantic between the 8th and 10th parallels.

Come and get it!

Source

And finally, the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map. The entire light-blue (and lighter) area bounded by the solid line has a storm-developing potential of at least 70 kJ/cm2, while the red area surrounding Jamaica has a pretty remarkable TCHP of 110 kJ/cm2 or higher.

Come and get it!

Source

Note 1: From Dr. Jeff Masters: "When using the TCHP map, TCHP is not really a good measurement in water that is shallow (less than 50 meters or so). Because TCHP is a function of volume and depth of warm water, TCHP will never appear to be high around coastlines/ocean shelves that are shallow. Remember Charley of 2004 strengthened significantly just offshore of SW FL. [That is,] in a region of low TCHP."

Note 2: most of the Gulf generally sees its maximum SSTs in August, while the northern half of the Caribbean tops out in September. The southern Caribbean and parts of the eastern Atlantic max out in October. (Link)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
Quoting CycloneUK:
Coldest Arctic summer on record. Explain that away!



You can repost it as many times as you want. Would seem no one's biting. Plenty of tropical weather to discuss.
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Ok Nea, I posed this question to you earlier.

Assuming you're correct.
Whats the solution and how do we implement it?
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Quoting CapeObserver:


They have 94L at about 31N but it's clear on the water vapor that the ridge has expanded much farther south pushing it SSW.
It's more like 30N at this time.
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Flood watches are posted down here in Broward already due the system
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Wrong. There's a huge difference between saying "Coldest Arctic summer on record"--which it has not been--and "Coldest reading ever at the Neuymayer station in Antarctica since it was installed 29 years ago". Aside from that very important fact, though, the Antarctic has been cold. A) It's Antarctic winter, and B) GW, as long predicted, is causing a lack of both cloud cover and wind at the South Pole, and this is contributing to extreme cold.

Satisfied?


The data comes from about 50 stations above 80N latitude. Here's the Link

And Antarctica?



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The storm off the coast of Florida is about the size of the state itself. Conditions would be felt across the state.
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The shear is killing everything this year it seems. Oh well, its not a bad thing
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:


appears to be some sort of spin off the coast of Florida now


They have 94L at about 31N but it's clear on the water vapor that the ridge has expanded much farther south pushing it SSW.
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Quoting blsealevel:


Sorry; upper level winds.


And a lot of dry air. Probably a 95L-like scenario in the northern Gulf at the most.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:




Any Thoughts?
I think it's moving more S than W at this time.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

Animals that eat jelly fish? That was simply an illustration to point out the uncertainty in all of this. We simply don't know. I know for a fact that there are a lot of equatorial fisheries that would expand N-S with warming.


There are very few animals other than humans that eat jellyfish 2 metres long. The sudden jellyfish blooms will start choking out the other marine life, and acidification and warmer oceans will threaten coral reef ecosystems. Bottom fishing will also not work, as some of those fish can live upwards of 100 years and reproduce very slowly, and so commercial fishing will deplete their populations very quickly.

Equatorial fisheries often depend of colder water. Off Peru, for example, the Humboldt's cold water provide plankton for large populations of fish. Plankton of the world's oceans have dropped as much as 40% in the last 60 years. El Nino, which warms the oceans off Peru threatens these equatorial fisheries. The only thing that will expand in this case is oceanic desert, while the best fisheries will be piled up near the Arctic and Antarctic regions, vulnerable to oil spills from increased shipping.
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238. amd
Quoting Ossqss:
202. NotJFV 11:39 AM EDT on August 08, 2010
"I got this report from Nortons....anyone else get a similar deal"

Yes, the site is red flagged by Norton at this time. McAfee shows green. Not sure what is up.

I submitted a ticket through the support link several days ago on the Adware item as directed by Admin. They are working with Norton to clear things up on that one. The others are new as of today. I would suggest you submit one on them. Bottom of the page for the link to Support. L8R


Another recommendation is to just use firefox with the no-script add-on (Just turn-on the wunderground.com, wxug.com, googleapis.com, and google-analytics.com scripts) and you have the full functionality of wunderground.

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People are only saying we had had a "fizzle" of a season so far because we haven't seen many strong systems other than Alex. It will come, just those type of people don't have any patience.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Whenever you get this kind of moisture off the coast of Florida, it needs to be watched closely.


Exactly. Temperatures off the coast are extremely warm.
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Quoting Patrap:


Whenever you get that kind of moisture/activity off the coast of Florida, it needs to be watched closely.
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Quoting Patrap:


appears to be some sort of spin off the coast of Florida now
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Quoting CycloneUK:
Coldest Arctic summer on record. Explain that away!



Wrong. There's a huge difference between saying "Coldest Arctic summer on record"--which it has not been--and "Coldest reading ever at the Neuymayer station in Antarctica since it was installed 29 years ago". Aside from that very important fact, though, the Antarctic has been cold. A) It's Antarctic winter, and B) GW, as long predicted, is causing a lack of both cloud cover and wind at the South Pole, and this is contributing to extreme cold.

Satisfied?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
Quoting Patrap:


Looks like storm convergence near Grand Bahama.
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This is for both sides of the argument! (by the way, that NOTJFV has become number 43 on my list LOL)

I am a middle of the road kind of guy on GW, however look at all of the bold words below, and this was just one event today with one person.

Yes we should invest in alternate forms of power, but we have not come up with any that can give us what what we currently use. Until that time comes, I am glad to be living in a time when we have all of theses comforts.

I just got done with breakfast!

1. I had 3 eggs which were brought to the store with a Semi-truck, which I cooked with Electricity

2. I had two slices of bread in which the wheat was harvested using a Tractor,which was brought to the bakery with a Semi-truck, which baked the bread using an Electric oven, which was then cut and bagged using Electricity , which was then brought to the store with a Semi-truck

3. I also had some brown and serve sausage which was made from a pig that ate grain that was harvested with a Tractor. The pig was slaughtered and processed, using Electricity, the sausage was cooked (maybe using natural gas), then it was frozen using a freezer which by the way uses Electricity, Then it was packaged using Electricity, and transported to the store with a Semi-truck. Which I heated in the microwave with electricity

4. I also had a glass of milk that came from a cow,that ate grain that was harvested with a Tractor. The milk was pumped out of the cows using electricity, which was then pasteurized using electricity, then packaged using electricity, then kept cold using electricity and finally brought to the store with a Semi-truck

5. I used my car which uses gas to go to the store to get all of the items after I used my car to back and forth to work, so that I would have money to by food and pay for the energy that I am using

PS I am sitting in an air conditioned office using a computer with light while charging my cell phone and listening to the police scanner while sipping a hot cup of coffee --- All of these items also require (d) Oil, gas, electricity just for little old me.
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Western Atlantic - Water Vapor Loop
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.