Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Astro

Also, 92L is not dead. It's still over the Yucatan.

It has been deactivated it is dead
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11520
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
Best AOI in most favorable conditions exists at location of 13N/65W in the central/eastern Caribbean Sea, organization of system is rampant and could become a potent system in 5 days of time.
some serious hyperforecasting. Rampant organization. please
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


There are very few animals other than humans that eat jellyfish 2 metres long.

Dolphins and sea turtles like to eat jellyfish a lot. Probably they don't eat many that are that big, though. :)
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92L deactivated once more.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008081512
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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afternoon everyone!!!,a little cyclonic rotation noted in the precip just north of bahamas....
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93L

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Quoting dolphingalrules:


yep it was in the same area...going south until the dade/broward line..when it crossed i think it's winds were at 80...we all know what happen after..
Quoting Neapolitan:


What I've been hearing for literally weeks from the likes of our own StormW and Dr. Masters, along with numerous other credible meteorologists, is that things would pick up the second week of August, or on or around the 10th. The second week of August starts today, and the 10th is still two days away, so calling "BUST!" now is a bit premature, don't you think?
not a bust but certainly overhyped when u never know how a seson will turn out. i have heard too many times on this blog that it WILL get active, not that it might.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
Best AOI in most favorable conditions exists at location of 13N/65W in the central/eastern Caribbean Sea, organization of system is rampant and could become a potent system in 5 days of time.
320. beell
Quoting scott39:
Are conditions favorable for more developement in the GOM for 94L?


Favorable enough to keep an eye on it if the energy from the trough split kicks out to the west.
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319. IKE
93L joins the list of exposed invests....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
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Possible low level circulation development in the next 12-24 hours AOI located currently 13N/65W moving west at 10-15mph. Possible circulation evident as weak spiral bands beginning to develop with system, convection is concentrated over the center. Environmental conditions are 50% favorable for further development, wind shear is roughly 5-10 knots and dry is very present to the west of system, could impede any major development, but given overall favorable environmental conditions I give this system a 40% chance at development in the next 2 days into a depression. UL divergence is present but remains weak, LL convergence is present but also remains weak. 850mb vorticity is showing signs of organization and strengthening, but weak 700mb and 500mb circulations, however they are stacked at all levels and this should be favorable for significant development as there is no competing areas of circulation present. Given all of this a storm is possible in the central to western caribbean Sea within the next 5 days at a medium chance of 50% to occur.

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Are conditions favorable for more developement in the GOM for 94L?
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very good in a bad way
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S.W. Florida

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The problem with the MMGW folks aka Alarmists lies in the fact that they posit their hysteria on any/all unusual weather. Have any unusually cold temperatures and it is due to global warming...violent storms somewhere on the globe?...that is due to global warming as well.

To that extent, there is little if any actual harm being done to the general population, except for the relieving them of their hard earned dollars which go to fattening wallets of a very rich few.

Not so when it comes to forecasting the weather. If you wish to forecast the weather, then leave your biases at the door.

Analyzing historical global weather patterns and discussing the potential effects and developing viable solutions to deal with those issues, is one thing. Allowing preconceived notions to color our analysis, in any way, risks incorrectly viewing current weather patterns and causing the general population to prepare for ultimately powder puff storms.

Why? Well, just like the story of the 'Little boy who cried wolf', reckless commentary regarding the weather, such as naming a low pressure area 'Bonnie' this year, only serves to desensitize the general population. The incessant forecasts of doom and gloom will eventually result in their becoming disillusioned to the point of ignoring warnings which later turn out to be valid.

Predicting the weather is a very fine balancing act and tilting it in favor of one view or another is simply wrong.

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Quoting cybergrump:
Didn't Katrina move SW when crossing south florida?


yep it was in the same area...going south until the dade/broward line..when it crossed i think it's winds were at 80...we all know what happen after..
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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1140 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY...

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-091000-
/O.CON.KMFL.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-100809T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1140 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
* THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
* AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY...MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. IN ISOLATED AREAS EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ON MONDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME AREAS FROM TODAYS AND MONDAYS RAINFALL
POSSIBLY REACHING FOUR TO SIX INCHES.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14179
.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14179

Upper Winds


Lower Winds


Shear
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303. beell
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


If I am correct the spin is actually over Central Florida


Broad spin near 29N 79W
Plenty of dry air behind it.
40 knots of upper flow from the north.

Would not expect too much out of 94L until it makes the gulf-off the coast of SW FL.


First model runs may have this feature crossing FL too far north
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Same song, 20th verse. This has been said over and over again this year. I'll believe a "hyperactive" season when I actually see it.


What I've been hearing for literally weeks from the likes of our own StormW and Dr. Masters, along with numerous other credible meteorologists, is that things would pick up the second week of August, or on or around the 10th. The second week of August starts today, and the 10th is still two days away, so calling "BUST!" now is a bit premature, don't you think?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14179
sammy, read the radar. There is some sort of spin off the gulf coast.
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Quoting Relix:
This season is finally showing the signs of hyper activity that were predicted. As soon as shear decreases all over the place and atmospheric conditions grow better we will see all these invests and waves develop.

Same song, 20th verse. This has been said over and over again this year. I'll believe a "hyperactive" season when I actually see it.
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298. xcool



UPDATE
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Upper Dev.


Lower Dev.
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Quoting Relix:
This season is finally showing the signs of hyper activity that were predicted. As soon as shear decreases all over the place and atmospheric conditions grow better we will see all these invests and waves develop.
not buying that .. show me the money
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
Quoting xcool:


If I am correct the spin is actually over Central Florida
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Quoting KanKunKid:


I'm saying "Fizzle" because all the ingredients are there, the pan's in the oven and it's cooking, but no doughnuts yet. It starts to look like a doughnut, but then nope. No doughnut. Just fizzle, except Alex.

Couldn't agree with you more.
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292. Relix
This season is finally showing the signs of hyper activity that were predicted. As soon as shear decreases all over the place and atmospheric conditions grow better we will see all these invests and waves develop.
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291. xcool
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


which is typical behind a front, this will take a few days to materialize. Systems develop off fronts despite the initial shear and dry air that is involved
ZJust pointing out it's not up at 31N in the dry air.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


All the moisture seems to be pushed south through Florida, around the TUTT low (Colin) to the east.



Some weak low-level convergence east and west of Florida.



Thanks for responding!
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Quoting ho77yw00d:
QUESTION... so is all the rain and stuff from the west heading east going to merge with the blob from the east and come back to the west?
I don't know the answer, but I imagine it depends where one lives. The answer would be different for Orlando, Grand Bahama, Miami, Ft. Myers, etc.
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Dry air should not be much of a problem if the wind shear abates, given the high SSTs the system is over, convection should continue to build towards the center once shear quiets down.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Whats that diving to the south, is there any Upper Level systems in the area?
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Quoting ho77yw00d:
QUESTION... so is all the rain and stuff from the west heading east going to merge with the blob from the east and come back to the west?


All the moisture seems to be pushed south through Florida, around the TUTT low (Colin) to the east.



Some weak low-level convergence east and west of Florida.

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Quoting centex:
There is noting but dry air above 30N.

dry air ull's lerking shear in the area. haven't I heard this all season long. i know patience.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
Quoting centex:
There is noting but dry air above 30N.



which is typical behind a front, this will take a few days to materialize. Systems develop off fronts despite the initial shear and dry air that is involved
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There is noting but dry air above 30N.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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