Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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380. IKE
Quoting Dr3w:
94L is pulvarizing my area, we are under flood watches and tornado watches.


Where are the tornado watches?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting tacoman:
that area off the fla east coast is really starting to get interesting...same area where katrina formed..i would watch that area closely especially the direction it will take across fla and move into the eastern gom..
I watch anything that is near the Gulf Stream this time of year. Actually anytime of year. Weather changes fast there.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What he means is pressures are falling in areas close to the system.


OK. Thanks for the translation. :)
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48 hour 12z RUC, TC near florida
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Quoting Baybuddy:

Oh, so skepticism is not allowed in science? Your labeling those how haven't made up thier minds as deniers onyl paints yours as an environmental religion, not a science. Just Grow a set and admit this to be what it is...Politics


Skepticism is an absolute necessity, but when it becomes cynicism, it's not valuable. If you've already determined your opinion on the matter and refuse to allow in new information, it's dishonest, imho.

Even though, as a climate scientist (working as a consultant on climate policy and very little technical work right now) it seems apparent to me that anthropogenic GHGs and urban-generated heat are having an effect on global systems, I'm still skeptical toward any new study until I understand the scope and the methodology. At this stage, evidence does seem overwhelming that mankind's activities are having an effect on climate, ecosystems, ocean dynamics, etc.
I hope the skeptics are right--it would be GREAT not to have to worry about long-term climate catastrophes.

But, it doesn't hurt to take a no-regrets approach toward addressing climate change. It's the only sustainable way forward, even if "all" it does is clean up the air and allow the US to lead the way with cleaner-energy technology :D
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375. IKE
12Z CMC...


12Z NOGAPS....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
374. Dr3w
94L is pulvarizing my area, we are under flood watches and tornado watches.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


I just wanted to say something about (what I see as) the overuse and misuse of the word hype on this blog where the forecast number of named storms is concerned.

Hype is defined in the dictionary as "Promotional publicity of an extravagant or contrived kind; deception." By that textbook definition, then, it wasn't "hype" for experts to make predictions of an above-average (or even far above average) hurricane season, just as it isn't hype when a forecaster looks at all the available data, applies all the tools and experience at his or her disposal, and tells you there's a 70% chance of rain. If it doesn't rain, can and should that forecaster then be accused of promulgating hype? Now, some in the news media can certainly create hype; that pretty much goes without saying. So can many in the public, including some WU members. But the two terms are different, for weather forecasting isn't an exact science; if it were, percentages wouldn't have to be used. So if you care to say at this point that certain meteorologists "over-forecast" the season, I guess you're allowed to. But accusing the vast majority of them of creating hype is wrong, it's unfair, and it's more than a little intellectually lazy.
i never said vast majority you did. it's boring to hear over and over the caps coming off ... here we go .. the atlantic is about break loose. Nobody knows if and when it will happen. just because science tells me it should be busy does not mean that will be the outcome. I continue to see storms getting torn apart and a part of me believes that may continue. the pattern may change or it may not. who is to say.
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What he means is pressures are falling in areas close to the system.
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Quoting StormW:


Yes ma'am!

Make you a deal...give me a chance to change clothes, and do an analysis, and I'll post it all in my synopsis.


AH thanks was really hoping you would say that :)
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If you stare at the radar long enough you'll see anything you want to see. ;-)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting Tazmanian:
Pressure are falling colore to the low Pressure

Link


What?
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Thanks StormW, good weatherman got to have a since of humor.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
That broad low is responsible for the flood watches and such that we are under
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Quoting StormW:


Nice broad low!

Hey Drak!


Hello StormW
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Quoting StormW:


Don't know, but when I see him, I'll have him come out to play! LOL!


hey storm!! can you please tell me whats going on here in fla and what to expect?

thanks
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363. Bonz
Heyyyyyy...what's this homegrown invest crap?
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94L

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Dang, I am really confused now is it possible to over-hype the word hype.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Looking at Melbourne radar I believe a spin is can be seen east-southeast north of the northern Bahamas moving south IMO
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Good omen for the marine supply industry, and for Florida's drought.
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Quoting MechEngMet:


Humans eat two meter long jelly fish??? Well I never knew. It's absolutely amazing the kinds of things you can learn on the internet these days.

Can you please find me a link to a recipe for 2 meter jelly fish? I checked food network.com but no luck. Where do I buy a two meter Jelly fish, the local fish market?

? My comment says dolphins and sea turtles eat jellyfish. See you later, guys. Have a nice Sunday.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT
POSITION : 20.8N 41.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2010 20.8N 41.1W WEAK
12UTC 08.08.2010 21.2N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2010 21.5N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2010 22.6N 48.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2010 23.6N 50.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2010 24.2N 52.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2010 25.0N 53.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2010 26.9N 54.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2010 28.7N 53.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2010 30.7N 52.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2010 32.7N 49.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2010 34.8N 46.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2010 36.4N 43.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
so basically what is the sense of this system, is it developing or not?



its devloping
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Quoting Drakoen:
Radar imagery from the Space Coast and hi-resolution imagery reveals a broad area of cyclonic flow with a PV maxima near 30.3N 78.6W moving to the SSW. Water vapor imagery reveals a surge of dry air on the northern side of the system due to the deep layered northerly flow.
I'm not expecting much development of this system until it gets into the eastern GOM in about 2 days or so where the computer models show the northerly flow relaxing as a deep-layered high advects eastward from the Plain region.
High pressure system to the north of the system will be responsible for sending the storm westward and this will be one to watch for those in Louisiana and Texas.


And yet another ominous outlook for the GOM. Wish you worked at the Lake Charles NWS. They are still saying an open wave to drift this way. Ever the optimistic ones...Lol.
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Visible satellite imagery continued to suggest a surface low is present at around 30N and about 77W, however wind shear from the NNW is advecting dry air and high amounts of shear of 20-40 knots in the vicinity. Again Caribbean Sea disturbance roughly located at 13N/65W is producing organized convection around a possible low level circulation center evident on visible satellite imagery as of 1645utc.
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Quoting divdog:
not a bust but certainly overhyped when u never know how a seson will turn out. i have heard too many times on this blog that it WILL get active, not that it might.


I just wanted to say something about (what I see as) the overuse and misuse of the word hype on this blog where the forecast number of named storms is concerned.

Hype is defined in the dictionary as "Promotional publicity of an extravagant or contrived kind; deception." By that textbook definition, then, it wasn't "hype" for experts to make predictions of an above-average (or even far above average) hurricane season, just as it isn't hype when a forecaster looks at all the available data, applies all the tools and experience at his or her disposal, and tells you there's a 70% chance of rain. If it doesn't rain, can and should that forecaster then be accused of promulgating hype? Now, some in the news media can certainly create hype; that pretty much goes without saying. So can many in the public, including some WU members. But the two terms are different, for weather forecasting isn't an exact science; if it were, percentages wouldn't have to be used. So if you care to say at this point that you feel certain meteorologists "over-forecast" the season, I guess you're allowed to (though I think that'd be very premature). But accusing the vast majority of them of creating hype is wrong, it's unfair, and it's more than a little intellectually lazy.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13603
so basically what is the sense of this system, is it developing or not?
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Our friend Colin creeps inexorably toward the island of Bermuda. The steering currents are strengthening, which should push Colin past Bermuda to the north. Our buddy Colin is still faced with wind shear and dry air being introduced from the upper-level low off of the west. Colin still remains disorganized, let's hope he can get his act together.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Radar imagery from the Space Coast and hi-resolution imagery reveals a broad area of cyclonic flow with a PV maxima near 30.3N 78.6W moving to the SSW. Water vapor imagery reveals a surge of dry air on the northern side of the system due to the deep layered northerly flow.
I'm not expecting much development of this system until it gets into the eastern GOM in about 2 days or so where the computer models show the northerly flow relaxing as a deep-layered high advects eastward from the Plain region.
High pressure system to the north of the system will be responsible for sending the storm westward and this will be one to watch for those in Louisiana and Texas.
Good afternoon Drak! What do you think about 93L?
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Quoting StormGoddess:

Dolphins and sea turtles like to eat jellyfish a lot. Probably they don't eat many that are that big, though. :)


Humans eat two meter long jelly fish??? Well I never knew. It's absolutely amazing the kinds of things you can learn on the internet these days.

Can you please find me a link to a recipe for 2 meter jelly fish? I checked food network.com but no luck. Where do I buy a two meter Jelly fish, the local fish market?

The questions are for 'AstroHurricane', not you StormGodds.
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Pressure are falling colore to the low Pressure

Link
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
Morning. Both my eyes aren't open yet. And the sun's on the wrong side of the house. But technically I think I'm awake. Forgive me if this has ben posted yet. Some interesting stuff. :)

From Crownweather... Link

Potential Northern Gulf of Mexico Development This Week:
Pretty much all of the model guidance are coming on board that a trough of low pressure now stretched across the northern part of Florida will lead to the development of an area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as early as late Monday or Monday night. This low pressure system has the potential to transform into a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward and northwestward during Tuesday and Wednesday and potentially making landfall on the northwestern Gulf coast on Thursday...

The Long Range Prospects Look Ominous – The Atlantic Is About To Go Boom:
just a nickle for everytime i've heard the atlantic is about to go boom. hypercasters are funny
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Hollywood don't know who to consult on your question either it's PhysicMarie or StormW, speaking of which where are they at when you need them. One question for Panhandle what's up with the police scanner are you helping or hiding?


LOL, Just like to know what is going on in my neck of the woods
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Morning. Both my eyes aren't open yet. And the sun's on the wrong side of the house. But technically I think I'm awake. Forgive me if this has ben posted yet. Some interesting stuff. :)

From Crownweather... Link

Potential Northern Gulf of Mexico Development This Week:
Pretty much all of the model guidance are coming on board that a trough of low pressure now stretched across the northern part of Florida will lead to the development of an area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as early as late Monday or Monday night. This low pressure system has the potential to transform into a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward and northwestward during Tuesday and Wednesday and potentially making landfall on the northwestern Gulf coast on Thursday...

The Long Range Prospects Look Ominous – The Atlantic Is About To Go Boom:
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Radar imagery from the Space Coast and hi-resolution imagery reveals a broad area of cyclonic flow with a PV maxima near 30.3N 78.6W moving to the SSW. Water vapor imagery reveals a surge of dry air on the northern side of the system due to the deep layered northerly flow.
I'm not expecting much development of this system until it gets into the eastern GOM in about 2 days or so where the computer models show the northerly flow relaxing as a deep-layered high advects eastward from the Plain region.
High pressure system to the north of the system will be responsible for sending the storm westward and this will be one to watch for those in Louisiana and Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hollywood don't know who to consult on your question either it's PhysicMarie or StormW, speaking of which where are they at when you need them. One question for Panhandle what's up with the police scanner are you helping or hiding?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Norton Safe Website

I began receiving the following warning from Norton Security sevaral days ago:

Link

Weather Underground may wish to check this out.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
sammy, read the radar. There is some sort of spin off the gulf coast.


Looks to me there is something trying to spin due West of Tampa area. Is that what you are looking at?

Good morning all. Breakfast is in the kitchen, Bloody-Marys and mimosas at the bar. Help yourselves... (Aaah Sunday in NewOrleans.)
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338. xcool


850 mb 5,000 feet


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Wind shear is hovering around normal for this time of year, so I don't know why some people are stating that there is a huge amount of shear.
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GREAT MAP
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LOL... a Katrina reference... really?

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Not bad. Thought there wasn't much going on at the surface.
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Click to enlarge and animate



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.
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Quoting divdog:
not a bust but certainly overhyped when u never know how a seson will turn out. i have heard too many times on this blog that it WILL get active, not that it might.


Well, maybe it's news to some that reverse psychology doesn't work on weather systems and recently, I have found that neither do Jedi mind tricks.
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that area off the fla east coast is really starting to get interesting...same area where katrina formed..i would watch that area closely especially the direction it will take across fla and move into the eastern gom..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.