Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Keeper when do you think one will be issued for 94?
depends on the show this afternoon and if it persists overnight maybe by midnight if its showing signs of organization we wait watch and see like always
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Of course it could be a matter of prospective. If I were a ant on the sidewalk hit b a small hail stone that could be considered a pulverizing experience. But I digress back to the weather enough fun for today. I don't want to hear anymore complaints about not enough water in Central south Fl. after this system. Maybe it will swing around the state and give everyone what they need including those 3 border states.2 to 3 what's the difference.
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478. Bonz
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert


Thanks!
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477. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
MH09- conditions here in Jax are HOT and DRY. Barometer is STABLE. Barely a breeze at the beach. High clouds and haze.

I HATE THIS!!


It's hot and dry over here in the western panhandle. Currently 93.6 outside my window...right now.

I see you have a yellow circle over you.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting aquak9:


maybe YOU but not ME!! (stomps foot) all it's gonna do for me is suck the moisture right outta our skies, and we will be DRY DRY DRY...


After what i saw last night, I would be cautious with what I say
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Quoting aquak9:


maybe YOU but not ME!! (stomps foot) all it's gonna do for me is suck the moisture right outta our skies, and we will be DRY DRY DRY...


I'm under a t storm warning as we speak. I'll speak to it as it passes by and tell it to head your way :)
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Good Afternoon

I'm just getting on today and low and behold I have a yellow circle over me and invest 94L. I knew if I ran the sprinkler yesterday we would get rain. Guess I'll hold off on washing the car, don't want too much rain. Besides I consider dust /dirt as sunscreen for my car.
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94L Official HPC Forecast

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MH09- conditions here in Jax are HOT and DRY. Barometer is STABLE. Barely a breeze at the beach. High clouds and haze.

I HATE THIS!!
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Quoting Drakoen:


The models forecast for upper levels winds to be extremely conducive for development as the system gets positioned between two upper levels troughs, supporting the formation or a large upper level high.


Ok thanks, I also wanted to know what you thought of the area of disturbed weather or surface low at 13N/65W or just west of there?
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UKMET Office

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 24.4N 53.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.08.2010 24.4N 53.7W WEAK
12UTC 11.08.2010 26.1N 54.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2010 27.3N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2010 29.3N 52.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2010 30.9N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2010 32.5N 48.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.08.2010 34.0N 45.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.08.2010 36.2N 42.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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Quoting CapeObserver:


If that pans out it's very interesting at the end.
Yes. storm in N.W.Caribbean, and the bazaar looking action out by the Cape Verde Islands.
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Quoting Hibiscus07:


Skepticism is an absolute necessity, but when it becomes cynicism, it's not valuable. If you've already determined your opinion on the matter and refuse to allow in new information, it's dishonest, imho.

Even though, as a climate scientist (working as a consultant on climate policy and very little technical work right now) it seems apparent to me that anthropogenic GHGs and urban-generated heat are having an effect on global systems, I'm still skeptical toward any new study until I understand the scope and the methodology. At this stage, evidence does seem overwhelming that mankind's activities are having an effect on climate, ecosystems, ocean dynamics, etc.
I hope the skeptics are right--it would be GREAT not to have to worry about long-term climate catastrophes.

But, it doesn't hurt to take a no-regrets approach toward addressing climate change. It's the only sustainable way forward, even if "all" it does is clean up the air and allow the US to lead the way with cleaner-energy technology :D


But you are asking for -no 'demanding'- the implementation of policies that will irrecoverably lower the standard of living, and endanger lives. That is not acceptable when you have no proof of AGW. SO... YES it DOES hurt to have a "No regrets approach" as you say. Besides, even if you are successful in destroying America, your policies will not be implemented in China or India, so the AGW you pretend to fight will still go on.

Do you expect us to stand idle as you destroy the constitution with some 'sky is falling' mythology?
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Quoting CapeObserver:


Looks like we are going be wet the next couple days. The big question is what will it do once it exits of the SW FL coast into the Gulf?


maybe YOU but not ME!! (stomps foot) all it's gonna do for me is suck the moisture right outta our skies, and we will be DRY DRY DRY...
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Two weak systems out there today:


93L:
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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
Tropical DEPRESSION 04L
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of SUN 08 Aug 2010 18:50:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
94L.INVEST
93L.INVEST T.C.F.A
04L.FOUR
East Pacific
07E.ESTELLE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
05W.FIVE
99W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
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These ULLs this year have been hampering cyclogenesis for most of the season thus far, I wonder if this will be the season of weak tropical storms.
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Statement as of 11:40 AM EDT on August 08, 2010

... Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday afternoon...

The Flood Watch continues for

* all of Mainland South Florida

* through Monday afternoon

* as low level moisture continues to increase across the
region... there is a potential for numerous showers and
thunderstorms across South Florida through at least
Monday. The potential for locally heavy rainfall will begin this
afternoon and continue into Monday evening. Two to three inches of
rainfall accumulation are possible over portions of South
Florida today... mainly expected across the central and eastern
portion of the peninsula. In isolated areas even higher rainfall
accumulations are possible. On Monday... numerous showers and
thunderstorms are again expected... with total rainfall
accumulations in some areas from todays and mondays rainfall
possibly reaching four to six inches.

* These rainfall amounts from today and Monday... or the
combination of the two... could lead to some minor flooding of
streets... urban areas and low lying areas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
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Oh jeez, I feel ya' Aquak, I'm under the yellow circle too!

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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


pulverize |%u02C8p%u0259lv%u0259%u02CCr%u012Bz|
verb [ trans. ]
reduce to fine particles : the brick of the villages was pulverized by the bombardment.
%u2022 informal defeat utterly : he had a winning car and pulverized the opposition.
DERIVATIVES
pulverizable adjective
pulverization |%u02CCp%u0259lv%u0259r%u0259%u02C8z%u0101 sh %u0259n| noun
pulverizer noun
Copyright � 2005%u20132009 Apple Inc.
All rights reserved.

ORIGIN late Middle English : from late Latin pulverizare, from pulvis, pulver- %u2018dust.%u2019
pulverize ( ) v. , -ized , -izing , -izes . v.tr. To pound, crush, or grind to a powder or dust. To demolish.lol
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Quoting psuweathernewbie:
Drak 93L is staring 30-40 knots of wind shear in the face towards its northwest the direction it is heading, how will it strengthen in an environment that wants to make sure it doesn't strengthen? Do you think the disturbed weather near 13N/65W is just a surface trough as well?


The models forecast for upper levels winds to be extremely conducive for development as the system gets positioned between two upper levels troughs, supporting the formation or a large upper level high.
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Quoting aquak9:
ok, NHC just put a yellow circle over me. It wasn't there like 5 minutes ago...or my computer is REALLY REALLY slow.


Looks like we are going be wet the next couple days. The big question is what will it do once it exits of the SW FL coast into the Gulf?
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93L is at 70%
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Keeper when do you think one will be issued for 94?
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Invest 94L has been declared by the navy site here. I kept on seeing some hints of development near Florida in the models and here it is. It is also on the NHC site at 10%. What do you think StormW, this thing is in our neighborhood (I am in Largo).
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455. IKE
...COLIN LOSING ORGANIZATION...COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...
2:00 PM AST Sun Aug 8
Location: 32.4°N 65.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1015 mb
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Cute new graphic from TAFB



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Quoting Bonz:
What's a TCFA?
T.C.F.A. ISSUED BY NAVY WHEN A SYSTEM SHOWS A POSSIBILTY OF FORMING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE HENCE
(TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT)=(T.C.F.A.)
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Quoting hydrus:Yeah. Pulverizing is a strong word.


pulverize |%u02C8p%u0259lv%u0259%u02CCr%u012Bz|
verb [ trans. ]
reduce to fine particles : the brick of the villages was pulverized by the bombardment.
%u2022 informal defeat utterly : he had a winning car and pulverized the opposition.
DERIVATIVES
pulverizable adjective
pulverization |%u02CCp%u0259lv%u0259r%u0259%u02C8z%u0101 sh %u0259n| noun
pulverizer noun
Copyright 2005%u20132009 Apple Inc.
All rights reserved.

ORIGIN late Middle English : from late Latin pulverizare, from pulvis, pulver- %u2018dust.%u2019
Quoting hydrus:
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ok, NHC just put a yellow circle over me. It wasn't there like 5 minutes ago...or my computer is REALLY REALLY slow.
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450. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 45 MILES WEST
OF BERMUDA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
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Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS through August 24th...Link


If that pans out it's very interesting at the end.
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Quoting 7544:
94l moving furthe south looks like the models went too far north imo either way so fla is gonna get soaked thru monday unless it stalls 4 to 6 in rain hmmm


The 12z CMC takes it across Florida pretty far north compared to other models I've seen. Don't know if they will all trend north now or not.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting Bonz:
What's a TCFA?
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert...
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looks like we may have TD 5 soon

clearly has a closed low
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Quoting divdog:
Explain why you care if ACE goes up
Why not? As long as a cyclone heads out to sea let it intensify all it wants.
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Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS through August 24th...Link


Scary set up at the end of the run... With that high and two Cape Verde storms..
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Quoting Bonz:
What's a TCFA?


Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
when was there a TCFA on 93?


SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 080400
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.0N 41.0W TO 26.0N
49.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 41.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST 1050NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLAND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KTS.
AT 08/0000Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DE-
CREASED IN STRENGTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS PRODUCING FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW WIND SHEAR, UPPER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF
83 TO 86 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
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FLUS42 KMFL 081155
HWOMFL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-090300-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
755 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...
...SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ATLANTIC/BISCAYNE BAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLOODING: SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS TODAY MEANS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN METRO AREAS WHERE STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

WATERSPOUTS: FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES AND POSSIBLE INTERSECTION OF
BOUNDARIES MAY PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE
BAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN THREATS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE FLOODING AND
LIGHTNING. BY WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

MOLLEDA
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IKe- the heat must be getting to me

ok, just got back from the beach. According to NHC, 94L is in/near the bay of campeche.

But according to SFWMD plots, 94L is directly east of me.

It is only 103º here so I should not be that confused.
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Hey he makes a good foot pad.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Drak, any chance for 93 to loop in a sense?


Not really seeing the at the moment.
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435. 7544
94l moving furthe south looks like the models went too far north imo either way so fla is gonna get soaked thru monday unless it stalls 4 to 6 in rain hmmm
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434. Bonz
What's a TCFA?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
As long as it heads out to sea let it intensify all it wants...at least our ACE will go up.
Explain why you care if ACE goes up
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Quoting hydrus:
Yeah. Pulverizing is a strong word.


No tornado watches either...
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Drak 93L is staring 30-40 knots of wind shear in the face towards its northwest the direction it is heading, how will it strengthen in an environment that wants to make sure it doesn't strengthen? Do you think the disturbed weather near 13N/65W is just a surface trough as well?
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93L is most likely a Tropical Depression, but because it is far out to sea, and expected to stay that way. They are not paying much attention to it, unless it develops deep convection, but this is most likely a TD right now with a nice closed LLC, some convection and nice banding.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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