Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
You ready 09 ?
Sure am...cool graph by the way. The line behind it looks very ominous.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Some nasty thunderstorm activity heading my way...I'll be catching some photos.

\oakland park is about ready to get rocked.... I have sattelite and dangit Im gonna miss a large portion of the race now.....uggggg
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Only slightly OT: check out this amazing--and amazingly close--video of a tornado taking out a house in Minnesota a little bit ago.

At least with hurricanes you get a warning. Yikes...


That was hard to watch. :(
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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/wrf/arw9_500_hgt_vort.php



Thanks, still cannot view it. I thought they might have some veiwing choices between flash and java on the page.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What I have is the black and white one. Is that one available for the public?

Link


It is Experimental, so much so they have not linked it on their webpage yet. It is here. Click on "Latest Available". It is not the graphic you linked, this Link is for that one in color.
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You ready 09 ?
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Quoting a747drvr:

It is a bit surprising to see a denier here where the predominant feature is discussion of scientifically derived information. Their self-immolation by posting words for all to see that indicate they do not understand the scientific effort is what really amazes me.


I find it more shocking for a "climatologist" to create and use derogatory terms (denier) as labels for people who truly understand and embrace the scientific method. When you can come to me with proof (not a "consensus" of evidence that can not be replicated) then feel free to talk to me about science. Until such time as you have proof, all you have is a theory. ...and a weak one at that.

If 'denier' is the label you choose for me so be it. Please recall that Gallileo denied the earth was the center of the universe, to the catholic church. ...another group like AGW based on faith and belief.

IF name calling is the best you have then your AGW points are truly bunk.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:


Thats what I was referring to, when you put the controls at the map bottom to showing everything, except clutter, you get the readings of the storms that are meso cyclones and that is what I am showing on the radar
Yeah I'm looking at that right now.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Some nasty thunderstorm activity heading my way...I'll be catching some photos.



Thats what I was referring to, when you put the controls at the map bottom to showing everything, except clutter, you get the readings of the storms that are meso cyclones and that is what I am showing on the radar
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
2 Tornadic cells in South Florida. One in Boca Raton, one moving towards Davie Fl at a slow pace. Both showing the purplish pinkish signs of a tornado forming.


Only slightly OT: check out this amazing--and amazingly close--video of a tornado taking out a house in Minnesota a little bit ago.

At least with hurricanes you get a warning. Yikes...
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Gulf of Mexico (Updated every ~10-15 mins)

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Quoting cloudy0day:


I cannot view the link. Can you give me the web address please?


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/wrf/arw9_500_hgt_vort.php

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Western Atlantic - Water Vapor Loop
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Quoting Drakoen:
The outlook looks good for Danielle and Earl to form this week.


Le Old wave train is at it again
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Some nasty thunderstorm activity heading my way...I'll be catching some photos.

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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Link

this shows the potential movement pretty well of 94L


I cannot view the link. Can you give me the web address please?
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:


Filter out the clutter on the controls at the bottom of the map, it will be easier to view


Yeah..its a drive thru..

LOl
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The outlook looks good for Danielle and Earl to form this week.
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Drak, regardless of computer model support, this is developing, in favorable environment, with some dry air present. Wind shear is 5-10 knots and is forecasted to drop further.
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Quoting Patrap:


Filter out the clutter on the controls at the bottom of the map, it will be easier to view
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509. BDAwx
Quoting aquak9:
somebody work some magic and get me some rain.

too mad to blog, back later. :(

same.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Cute new graphic from TAFB





What I have is the black and white one. Is that one available for the public?

Link
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Quoting weatherman12345:

poor fish
Oh ,yes i will love to see a descent "storm" after all this little "swirls" they been naming this year, even if it is for the "poor" fish.
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somebody work some magic and get me some rain.

too mad to blog, back later. :(
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Come on FL people!!! Its only in the Upper 80s to Lower 90s there!! It was 115 °F here the other day in Tx! The heat wont kill you.....Okay, maybe it will if your out there long enough ,but stay inside and drink wh atever Florida people drink!


We drink Huuricanes of course!
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2 Tornadic cells in South Florida. One in Boca Raton, one moving towards Davie Fl at a slow pace. Both showing the purplish pinkish signs of a tornado forming.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Today's Areas of Concern:
1. Tropical Depression Colin
2. Invest 93L
3. Invest 94L
4. 35W Tropical Wave


If the wave near 35W is one, then so is the broad but small surface low pressure center located near 13N/65.5W in the eastern Caribbean Sea.
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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Link

this shows the potential movement pretty well of 94L


That was pretty cool. Thanks. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
Drak, satellite imagery continues to support a broad small surface low pressure center developing around 13N and 65.5W. Also environment shows storms developing within the dry air north of this low, which means environment could become much more favorable for tropical cyclone development in the next couple of days.


No computer model support.
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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Link

this shows the potential movement pretty well of 94L

That path sure does looks fimiler
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Today's Areas of Concern:
1. Tropical Depression Colin
2. Invest 93L
3. Invest 94L
4. 35W Tropical Wave
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Over here in SE FL, it's raining with thunder and my weather station reported a wind gust of 22 MPH just 5 minutes ago. So nothing severe, but the rain is just pouring according to the radar just a little to the South of me.
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Come on FL people!!! Its only in the Upper 80s to Lower 90s there!! It was 115 °F here the other day in Tx! The heat wont kill you.....Okay, maybe it will if your out there long enough ,but stay inside and drink wh atever Florida people drink!
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Quoting MrstormX:


Looks like Dr. Scholls is going to be out of a job... considering we already had one cane


ROFL.
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Back after the NASCAR race (Non Athletic Sport Centered Around Rednecks)

LOL
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spathy- we've had less than half an inch in about ten days. The pond is a good 16 inches too low. Edges are falling in.

I feel a Jedkins-fit coming on...
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Quoting aquak9:
grrrr...Ike gets over an inch, others get good thunderstorms (ok plywood, no water spouts please)

My rain gauge is turning into a WISH Gauge!!

send it this way...PLEASE I'm beggin' here...
I will do the N.E Florida Rain Dance for you. Then the rain will fall.
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Drak, satellite imagery continues to support a broad small surface low pressure center developing around 13N and 65.5W. Also environment shows storms developing within the dry air north of this low, which means environment could become much more favorable for tropical cyclone development in the next couple of days.
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StormW can do some "on the scene" analysis tomorrow morning at 8AM


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Quoting aquak9:
grrrr...Ike gets over an inch, others get good thunderstorms (ok plywood, no water spouts please)

My rain gauge is turning into a WISH Gauge!!

send it this way...PLEASE I'm beggin' here...
LOL, I got 1.40 or so here.
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Link

this shows the potential movement pretty well of 94L
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483. 7544
heavy rains are to the south of 94l right does this have time to develope further before crossing fla or it can even get stronger prior to the approch ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
grrrr...Ike gets over an inch, others get good thunderstorms (ok plywood, no water spouts please)

My rain gauge is turning into a WISH Gauge!!

send it this way...PLEASE I'm beggin' here...
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Quoting aquak9:
MH09- conditions here in Jax are HOT and DRY. Barometer is STABLE. Barely a breeze at the beach. High clouds and haze.

I HATE THIS!!
It isn't much better here, lots of rain, not a breeze, very humid and muggy.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Keeper when do you think one will be issued for 94?
depends on the show this afternoon and if it persists overnight maybe by midnight if its showing signs of organization we wait watch and see like always
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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