Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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2330. Patrap
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Drak, Storm, other experts...question for you!

Is there any way to tell how big a storm is going to be during its formation? Once the COC tightens up does its diameter help determine the "outside" diameter as well? Is there another factor I'm missing?

Although a bit morbid, when watching satellite images of Katrina/Ike what made them explode in size?
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BTW, I haven't seen anybody mention so far about the Twave still over WAfrica.... actually analysed in the 8 a.m. TWD....
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Thanks StormW - once again excellent synopsis
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Morning all..........LOOKS like we got a true Bermuda Triangle....LOL



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94L still going south and west. this will have major implications on track
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Good Morning!!

As I've seen here, 93L is organizing. The NHC has also said so. So I turn to possible tracks...Gordon 2006 is a good example of what might happen.

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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
what is going on here..how did the invest 94L GET DOWN THERE.
Centre reformation, from what I've seen so far....
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2321. Squid28
Quoting Drakoen:
Also the possibility that 94L stalls in the eastern GOM while it tries to develop. That would give credence to the BAMM suite...somewhat less progressive.


Those are the ones that scare me, Alicia more or less did that back when it made it's run. A cliffhanger hurricane is not a good combination for the faint of heart......
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2320. 7544
so now the coc is not east of fla but on the west coast for 94l twc just said its still est of fla a so fla is still under a flood watch thru tes what give s whos right here im confused lol if its west of so fla the watches should be drop then for so fla
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Quoting smuldy:
Is the center of 94L really that north and east as seen in those tracks?


You mean south and west of its previous position I presume... yes. Is thats it real location..I have no idea.. thats a StormW or Levi thingie.
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Seems as if a circulatin is trying to spin up rapidly on visible. Notice the finger like low level clouds stretched east to west moving westward...
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Thank you StormW.
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2313. smuldy
Quoting Orcasystems:
Updated Tracks and Locations.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Is the center of 94L really that north and east as seen in those tracks?
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2312. smuldy
Quoting drj10526:


i think A) these posts are way off topic B) are quite long and taking up space E) should learn there is only one letter E in the alphabet
lol fair enough on the double e's lol guess it is time for my hibernation but i did stray back on point after the post after this one and i do hate the GW talk which is why I only mentioned it in passing it all started from the oil in the gulf admin snafu comment that has lingered for 2 days now and ya I shouldve just kept my mouth shut and kept to asking about the tropics but I get opinionated when buzzed and tired (cut c/d 4 space)
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Good Morning Folks......Early August starting to look pretty active.....hmmmmm
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Updated Tracks and Locations.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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2308. Drakoen
Also the possibility that 94L stalls in the eastern GOM while it tries to develop. That would give credence to the BAMM suite...somewhat less progressive.
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Quoting sailfish01:


Thats the Spin..

So where is the ULL?? This thing is weird..just not together enough yet to tell



Right now it's a surface trof extending from a circulation center W of Nassau down around SFL to a second circulation center W of the Keys. Several circulations noted along the trof.
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Ya. if thats the low forming off the southwest coast near Marco Island. It will have ideal conditions to strengthen.
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Good morning. Just to let you all know that I got caught in weather from 94L yesterday without knowing that 94L was even out there. Can't get away for a weekend without something happening! LOL Anyhow, on my trek back to the East Coast of FL from the West Coast, I swear I experienced TS rain and wind conditions! A total wall of water (rain) on Hwy 70 between Arcadia and Okeechobee. Had to drive 35-40 mph and could not see more than 10 feet ahead of me. My finger indentions on my steering wheel are probably permanently imbedded! I kept thinking this feels tropical in nature and is worse than Bonnie, but thought all tropical activity was in Atlantic. Boy, was I ever wrong! Anyway, just want to share that you can never be too confident regarding tropical formation at this time of year. Just "ignore" the tropics for TWO days and all hell breaks loose! LOL
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2301. Squid28
Due to the proximity of 94L to the conus, I would expect that we will see a G-IV flight tasked for some upper air soundings within 24 to 36 hours. Those soundings and a defined COC always get the models going in the right direction.....

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Crazy weather here in the Keys! Key West radar looks like 3 interlocking rings of rain right now with the central one over the upper Keys.

Link.
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Quoting extreme236:


Conditions for 94L should be quite favorable. Could become a concerning storm once it organizes.
Yep, the GFS suggests that upper level conditions be favorable for development later this day.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194


Thats the Spin..
Quoting sammywammybamy:
The Center of Circulation is WNW of Nassua..

Thats the Spin..


So where is the ULL?? This thing is weird..just not together enough yet to tell
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2295. all4hurricanes 9:07 AM CDT on August 09, 2010
Now that I can see 94L i think it will develop I'm getting sick of the little weak sheared TSs I kinda want a hurricane
Action: Quote



HERE HERE!!!
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Now that I can see 94L i think it will develop I'm getting sick of the little weak sheared TSs I kinda want a hurricane
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Morning All.

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Visible satellite images suggest that the circulation of 93L has slid under the deepest convection to its north. The 12z ATCF center fix also suggests that we are getting very close to tropical depression classification.

AL, 93, 2010080912, , BEST, 0, 232N, 480W, 30, 1012, LO,

However, as of 11:45UTC, TAFB remains as T1.0 while SAB is at T1.5. If some more organization covectively takes place, we should have 05L later today.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2291. srada
Good Morning Everyone,

94L is about the craziest storm I have seen in relation to model runs..both sides of Flordia for an inital point for one storm? I hope this isnt the sign for things to come later down the road
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Surface low located in the Gulf this morning.

Link
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


B or C personally, judging by those water temps and the COC relocation towards to the Gulf.


I could easily see this becoming a hurricane if it does organize, conditions remain conducive, and moves farther west than those early models depict. Will check back in later.
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Quoting ackee:
How strong will 94L get

A TD
B Weak TS
C Strong TS
D Hurricane





B or C personally, judging by those water temps and the COC relocation towards to the Gulf.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
2286. Drakoen
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2285. Drakoen
Quoting Tropicaddict:


Drak...according to the SFWMD site...the BAM models have the new location and all three of them have it going in at the mouth of the MS pretty much. Do you still think this will change?


Yes. With the system being further west it's gonna have more time to be south of the ridge and thus get further west.
If you look at the water vapor imagery you can see an upper level ridge approaching the Mississippi River Valley Region.
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2284. ackee
How strong will 94L get

A TD
B Weak TS
C Strong TS
D Hurricane



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I'm in line with the BAMD in terms of track.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
yes donna1960ruled I tagged that as pre-95L early this morning around 2am our time
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2281. smuldy
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
what is going on here..how did the invest 94L GET DOWN THERE.
was listed as even further south per the 8, but apparently newer models show the coc fighting further south and west; just seems to be a mess thats trying to figure out where it will start from and then that will determine what it will do/where it may hit this next 5-7 days if it lives into the GOMEX
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Quoting Jeff9641:
94L and the ULL should merge tomorrow as that happens we could see 94L take off. Mouth of the Mississippi should be the target for whatever 94L becomes.


Yep.. Looks like no rain for me in texas again!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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