Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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580. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
12z ECMWF running.. still shows 94L pretty good in the Gulf.
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Quoting caneswatch:


What my problem is, is the NHC. Why haven't they put a crayon on the wave southeast of 93L?
It's an ITCZ disturbance. As long as its embedded in the ITCZ the NHC won't "crayon" it.
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562. Hardcoreweather2010 6:31 PM GMT on August 08,2010

That leaves alot open for the wishcasters, anywhere but East.
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I have been checking the land based reporting stations, buoys, and ship reports from the N. Bahamas, E. Fl coastal areas. While the blob is putting on a nice show for the satellite and radar returns, the barometric pressure across the area remains relatively steady, and relatively high.

IMO development of this area, if any, will be slow to occur, and would probably wait until it reaches the E. GOM.
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575. xcool
12Z EURO weak system
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
It's getting really black and still here on the west central coast north of Tampa. Just don't get green and still...

Ah. The wind just started picking up and here comes the rain.
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Quoting psuweathernewbie:


Extreme, thoughts on the area of disturbed weather with a broad surface low located at 13N/65.5W?


Fairly limited convection, I highly doubt we see any development from it.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting 7544:
looks like a spin forming on 94l hmmmm


Your not seeing things. ASCAT showed a broad, disorganized low.
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Quoting caneswatch:


What my problem is, is the NHC. Why haven't they put a crayon on the wave southeast of 93L?


That wave really isn't very impressive anymore. Good call by the NHC not to put it in the TWO I guess.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Miami, thats what I am dealing with Right now. heavy rain, and wind
Where are you?
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Miami, thats what I am dealing with Right now. heavy rain, and wind
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Quoting extreme236:


I'd assume it has something to do with surrounding surface pressures.


Extreme, thoughts on the area of disturbed weather with a broad surface low located at 13N/65.5W?
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Getting real dark now...believe me it is much darker than what the image below portrays it to be.

2:33PM EDT.

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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Now keeper you tell me where this system is. It appears to be forming in two locations.



INV/94/L
MARK
27.99N/79.88W
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565. 7544
looks like a spin forming on 94l hmmmm
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Big downpour outside Plant City Fl, and thunder picking up. Radar shows several of these storms forming over land as opposed to coming off the Gulf.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


He was sarcastic. He knows that this season won't be a dud. 5 storms by August 13th is very active if 93L and 94L forms.


What my problem is, is the NHC. Why haven't they put a crayon on the wave southeast of 93L?
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560. 7544
lol 94l fromed where we least expected
out of no where
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Im surprised the low is still 1011mb and the TWO has it at 70% lol

something doesn't add up right
True, maybe the lack of surface observations around there leads them to believe that pressures are that high...Uh-oh, SAB now at T1.0. It was at "too weak" before.

08/1745 UTC 22.8N 45.0W T1.0/1.0 93L
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Im surprised the low is still 1011mb and the TWO has it at 70% lol

something doesn't add up right


I'd assume it has something to do with surrounding surface pressures.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Okay I need a canoe, its hand in front of the face rain now
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Yah, it's 94L? That's why my head has been ping-ponging since last night. Ouch. Ouch. I'm fixin' to slammed here.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Moving west now (280%u02DA).

AL, 93, 2010080818, , BEST, 0, 228N, 450W, 25, 1011, DB,


Im surprised the low is still 1011mb and the TWO has it at 70% lol

something doesn't add up right
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94L is moving more SW/SSW then WSW
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Quoting donna1960ruled:
Dr. Scholls of Kenisaw Community College has revised his 2010 Hurricane forecast.....

5 Named Storms
0 Hurricanes
0 Major Hurricanes
TROLL ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT POOF
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TropicalDepression Colin has passed 41miles(66kilometres)west of Bermuda
Copy&paste 29.6N65.6W-29.7N65.6W, 29.7N65.6W-29.8N65.6W, 29.8N65.6W-30.7N65.6W, 30.7N65.6W-31.2N65.6W, 31.2N65.6W-32.0N65.6W, 32.0N65.6W-32.4N65.6W, 32.3n64.9w-32.3n65.6w, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.

TD.Colin has been traveling due north for 16hours straight...
Time and Date -- Location
08pmAST 7Aug - 29.6N65.6W
11pmAST 7Aug - 29.7N65.6W
02amAST 8Aug - 29.8N65.6W
05amAST 8Aug - 30.7N65.6W
08amAST 8Aug - 31.2N65.6W
11amAST 8Aug - 32.0N65.6W
02amAST 8Aug - 32.4N65.6W
...which is so odd that it makes me wonder whether the NHC has been tracking just the overall storm movement rather than the center of a TropicalCyclone.
ie Whether what-was-Colin is already so disorganized that their
COLIN LOSING ORGANIZATION...COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY
is already true, and has been for a while.
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541. caneswatch 6:19 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

you must not read very many of my posts, yes I was being sarcastic

I am a big believer in the fact that most of our storms will occur after mid August; 20 storms is still very possible with the set up that is about to happen
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The incoming thunderstorm line...image taken at 2:14PM EDT.




The "Sunshine State", eh? LOL
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Aircraft create hole-punch clouds, then snow and rain fall out.
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Where is our friend the MJO supposed to be for LABOR DAY weekend? I got roped into Outber Banks beach house vacations, I've got a bad feeling about it.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Lack of patience, etc. Dude, there were 6 named by late August in 2004, now we might have 5 by mid-August. This season ain't dead, by a longshot.


He was sarcastic. He knows that this season won't be a dud. 5 storms by August 13th is very active if 93L and 94L forms.
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Where is our friend the MJO supposed to be for LABOR DAY weekend? I got roped into Outber Banks beach house vacations, I've got a bad feeling about it.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Now keeper you tell me where this system is. It appears to be forming in two locations.

1 word....
o
m
i
n
o
u
s
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Moving west now (280%u02DA).

AL, 93, 2010080818, , BEST, 0, 228N, 450W, 25, 1011, DB,
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


wow so we could have 5 named storms by August 13th?

What a dead season lol


Lack of patience, etc. Dude, there were 6 named by late August in 2004, now we might have 5 by mid-August. This season ain't dead, by a longshot.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:


where did you find that?


GR AE from Link
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Quoting wxvoyeur:


That was hard to watch. :(

thats why i really do not like tornados,
at least i can run from a hurricane.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
You ready 09 ?


where did you find that?
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Consider yourself "shocked."
I didn't realize that "denier" was a word that generated such sensitivity.
Anyway this is a tropical weather discussion among aficionados so I'll leave it there.
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13N/65.5W disturbance continues to show signs of developing a surface low which is broad but small in nature.
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Now keeper you tell me where this system is. It appears to be forming in two locations.
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The incoming thunderstorm line...image taken at 2:14PM EDT.



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Quoting Drakoen:
The outlook looks good for Danielle and Earl to form this week.


wow so we could have 5 named storms by August 13th?

What a dead season lol
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Wow big time storm over Martin county right now.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
You ready 09 ?
Sure am...cool graph by the way. The line behind it looks very ominous.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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