Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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We're getting a lot of thunder here in Panama City. It is jet black over Tyndall AFB right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
628. 7544
the whole area ia drifting s and sse how does this go west to gom im dizzy here lol

if its suppose to go to gom is the blob to the east of so fla suppose to turn west ? all i see are stroms drifting sse now
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What lives "under the bridge"?

In my neighborhood...homeless people.,,.. they're on the corner of 95 and Commercial everyday when Im going home.....
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What lives "under the bridge"?


How bizarre is it that, that song is playing on my TV music channel right now. I have slapped my hand for quoting him Kristina... I usually restrain. :) Stay safe Florida bloggers!
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Ok extreme.
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starting to get really dark here near plant city fl. can hear the thunder and its getting louder by the minute.
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623. DDR
I'm expecting another 2 feet of rain this month.
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Maybe you forgot that Charlie hit Florida Aug. 13 and that was one of the busiest Hurricane seasons on record. un-Officially hurricane season runs mid August to end of September.


Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Ya got issues!
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Quoting cheaterwon:
that is a cool graphic where is the link to that and other graphics and maps like that.


It's a software program from Link you can download a demo and check it out. You will need to use a free level 2 radar feed and follow these instructions if you have any problems just shoot me a WU email

1) Start GR2Analyst or GRLevel2.

2) Select File->Configure Polling

3) Click on "Add"

4) Enter this URL into the text field:
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/data/nexrd2/raw/

5) Click OK, GR2/A will read the list of sites available from the source

6) Click OK on the "Configure Polling" dialog to close it

Once you have told GR2 or GR2Analyst about the feed, the "Start Polling" and "Site" menu items will be enabled.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What lives "under the bridge"?


I'm not sure what you mean. My name refers to the RHCP song.
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616. DDR
Good afternoon
Heavy t-storms and rain this afteroon in north Trinidad, 66mm(2.59 inches)fell in just under half an hour.
Total precip at my location for August is 8.3 inches so far.
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watervapor loop shows dry air creeping down Florida Pen

Link
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I will say this, I know where I am staying. right in front of this computer.
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,
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...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PASCO...NORTHEASTERN
HILLSBOROUGH AND NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR ZEPHYRHILLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THESE STORMS
WILL AFFECT ZEPHYRHILLS...WESLEY CHAPEL...WINSTON...GIBSONIA...AND
PLANT CITY...UNTIL 330 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting UnderTheBridge:
Why was my comment removed?


You really need to ask?
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Statement as of 2:40 PM EDT on August 08, 2010

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued an

* Urban Flood Advisory for...
east central Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the cities of... West Palm Beach... Riviera Beach...
Lake Worth... Boynton Beach...

* until 530 PM EDT

* at 236 PM EDT a nearly stationary thunderstorm is over Metro
sections of Palm Beach from around Boynton Beach to Riviera Beach
and caloosa. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall has already fallen and more
can be expected.

Reports have already been received of minor flooding on Lake Worth
Road with this activity.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams... and ponding of water in urban areas...
highways... streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage
areas and low lying spots.

Lat... Lon 2674 8003 2655 8003 2655 8004 2651 8005
2651 8014 2688 8031 2687 8005 2677 8003
2678 8005 2676 8002 2675 8002



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The question I have is this. Why with the system moving as it is are the storms out here nearly stationary?
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
You ready 09 ?
that is a cool graphic where is the link to that and other graphics and maps like that.
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Quoting psuweathernewbie:


It is a broad but small surface low though right?


I don't believe so, I don't see anything on the surface maps, or on anything else I've looked at.
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Re#595

ROFL
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...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

AT 239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CANAL POINT TO
CLEWISTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...
CANAL POINT...
PAHOKEE...
LAKE HARBOR...
BELLE GLADE...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST PALM BEACH...RIVIERA BEACH...
LAKE WORTH...BOYNTON BEACH...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 236 PM EDT A NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM IS OVER METRO
SECTIONS OF PALM BEACH FROM AROUND BOYNTON BEACH TO RIVIERA BEACH
AND CALOOSA. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND MORE
CAN BE EXPECTED.
REPORTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED OF MINOR FLOODING ON LAKE WORTH
ROAD WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Just got on the board here today, hello all.

I see that the models have come into better agreement about a weak low. Looks like us here in central FL will finally get some rain.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z ECMWF running.. still shows 94L pretty good in the Gulf.
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I don't know how huge the storms are when we haven't had a warning all day :) BBL with the latest runs on 94L
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593. 7544
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


Just wait, you think thats nasty. This system is developing multiple meso cyclones.


and its moving very slow if at all right now
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Where in Orlando are you? Im in Oviedo.



Quoting Jeff9641:
Huge storms again approaching Orlando. We went from bone dry to swamp conditions here in 48 hours.
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591. Boca
Saw this on the FSU web page. Lots of interesting reading from a solid site.

Global TC Activity remains at 30-year lows at least -- The last 24-months of ACE at 1090 represents a decrease from the previous months and a return to the levels of September 2009...Since Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) and the publication of high-profile papers in Nature and Science, global tropical cyclone ACE has collapsed in half. This continues the now 4-consecutive years global crash in tropical cyclone activity. While the Atlantic on average makes up about 10% of the global, yearly hurricane activity, the other 90% deserves attention and has been significantly depressed since 2007.
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Huge storms again approaching Orlando. We went from bone dry to swamp conditions here in 48 hours.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah nasty rain over there...completely black over here with gusty winds and a light drizzle.


Just wait, you think thats nasty. This system is developing multiple meso cyclones.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


actually that may be the other way around

ECMWF looks like it develops 94L before it develops 93L
Lol, I fixed it after I saw the loop.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


Coconut Creek, in Northern Broward County.
Yeah nasty rain over there...completely black over here with gusty winds and a light drizzle.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ECMWF 12z 72 hours, Danielle in the Atlantic with Earl in the GOMEX.




actually that may be the other way around

ECMWF looks like it develops 94L before it develops 93L
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584. 7544
moving more south not seeing to much west tho hmmm
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Quoting extreme236:


Fairly limited convection, I highly doubt we see any development from it.


It is a broad but small surface low though right?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Where are you?


Coconut Creek, in Northern Broward County.
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ECMWF 12z 72 hours, Danielle in the GOMEX with Earl in the Atlantic.


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
580. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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