Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Tropical Depression Colin
National Hurricane Center Intermediate Advisory #19A
2pm EDT Graphics Update





Tropical Storm Estelle
National Hurricane Center Advisory #11
11am EDT Graphics Update

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729. 7544
ok isee xcool the spin east of melbourne is moving south im dizzy now lol
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hmm, net loss would a death sentence for me....i'd be trying to use the blackberry to post and look at radar...it would be maddening...laughs


Quoting Bonz:


No kidding! A lightning strike was so close that I yelled. *lol* Same strike that nuked my cable and (temporarily) 'net.

It's gone now, along with my cable. *grin*
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I do however have to say that before this actually gets classified as a tropical depression by the NHC, that the circulation advect under the deeper convection to its northeast.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
93L looks better than Colin !!!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


It takes much more to classify a system, then it does to keep a system at a certain intensity


Yep. While NHC is conservative in naming systems most of the time, the NHC is also conservative in deactivating or writing that last advisory most of the time.
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724. xcool


HERE BETTER IMAGE
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648

I see it too...Noticed it several hours ago

Quoting Huracaneer:
I think I am seeing some significant spin in long distance radar here , but I have noticed radar loops can be deceiving. What do the rest of you think?
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we are getting a good SOAKING here in South Florida and it looks like it will be here to stay for the next 2 days.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


that product has the center all the way down at 20N, which it is nowhere near

Center is currently at 22.8N, much closer to the convection then that product shows

Yep, CIMSS PREDICT location looks to be incorrect (does not match the location on their main page either), though I don't think the system looks healthy regardless. Too much dry air.

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720. xcool
moveing S 94L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
719. 7544
Quoting Huracaneer:
I think I am seeing some significant spin in long distance radar here , but I have noticed radar loops can be deceiving. What do the rest of you think?



hmmm maybe is all that moving to the west
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
688. MiamiHurricanes09

SHF5 is the CLP5 of intensity, climitology and persistence.

You learn something new everyday...thanks.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
717. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting Hurricanes101:


It takes much more to classify a system, then it does to keep a system at a certain intensity
True. Looking at satellite the circulation looks to have finally closed off...the only thing holding it back is the dry air, which is causing the "ehhh" satellite presentation and low T-numbers.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122


Wow there is a nasty line of storms about 30 miles north of me...
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there KOTG

That area you have posted is the same one I drew everyones attention to last night. Back then it was a small but vigorous circulation right on top of the islands but exhibiting a strong 850 vort signature which it still has today.

The way the season has been going though who knows what may happen, or not happen with this. It's been somewhat odd so far IMO
yes odd is a good word for it for sure but as always sooner or later one will catch its groove then all hell is breaking loose
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
713. xcool
Huracaneer wow nice spin.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
TAFB and SAB at 1.0, NHC at 70% red.
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711. Bonz
Quoting Goldenblack:
Hey Bonnie, whew, you all are getting hammered there....



No kidding! A lightning strike was so close that I yelled. *lol* Same strike that nuked my cable and (temporarily) 'net.

It's gone now, along with my cable. *grin*
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well what else can be expected from a system surrounded by dry air? If Colin is still a depression (T-numbers from SAB at 1.0 while TAFB at 1.5) this should be too.


It takes much more to classify a system, then it does to keep a system at a certain intensity
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I think I am seeing some significant spin in long distance radar here , but I have noticed radar loops can be deceiving. What do the rest of you think?
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688. MiamiHurricanes09

SHF5 is the CLP5 of intensity, climitology and persistence.

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Put the RGB of 93L in motion, and check out the little area at 21N/44W; you'll see a small swirl just forming that's kicking off some convection, almost like a parasitic CoC. Interesting feature...
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Quoting CapeObserver:


I guess that means if we get something here in FL it's your fault, lol? No more vacations for you!


Dang it!!! Maybe if I go to Norway or something... LOL
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


This could be our next invest.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Hi there KOTG

That area you have posted is the same one I drew everyones attention to last night. Back then it was a small but vigorous circulation right on top of the islands but exhibiting a strong 850 vort signature which it still has today.

The way the season has been going though who knows what may happen, or not happen with this. It's been somewhat odd so far IMO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15807
Quoting extreme236:


Still not enough convective organization. T-numbers are T1.0 from TAFB/SAB.
Well what else can be expected from a system surrounded by dry air? If Colin is still a depression (T-numbers from SAB at 1.0 while TAFB at 1.5) this should be too.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would say that 93L now is a tropical depression...LLC near 23.0N.


It is very organized, and has a surface low, but it doesn't look like there is a closed circulation.
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INV/93/L
MARK
22.93N/44.33W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Could you link me to the site?


Link They seem to be having problems updating their text synopsis's for each system but on their maps you can see all the systems.
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Convection is still a little weak with the surface low near 65.5W/13N.
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Quoting extreme236:
And we now have PGI27L over Western Africa.


Could you link me to the site?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would say that 93L now is a tropical depression...LLC near 23.0N.



Still not enough convective organization. T-numbers are T1.0 from TAFB/SAB.
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Afternoon all. Things sure have picked up in here since this a.m..... lol

I suppose that's the result of the yellow circle over my head.... lol
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would say that 93L now is a tropical depression...LLC near 23.0N.




I second that.
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Quoting extreme236:
And we now have PGI27L over Western Africa.


Yes, finally others are picking up on this area.
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I would say that 93L now is a tropical depression...LLC near 23.0N.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Tropical Update

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Quoting extreme236:
The Montgomery Research Group has tagged the area at 65W/13N as "PGI26L"


that little area does look interesting
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The LGEM going weaker than the SHIPS.

AL, 94, 2010080818, 03, LGEM, 0, 295N, 795W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080818, 03, LGEM, 12, 292N, 802W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080818, 03, LGEM, 24, 291N, 814W, 23, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080818, 03, LGEM, 36, 289N, 831W, 28, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080818, 03, LGEM, 48, 289N, 850W, 28, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080818, 03, LGEM, 60, 291N, 870W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080818, 03, LGEM, 72, 295N, 890W, 31, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080818, 03, LGEM, 84, 300N, 906W, 28, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080818, 03, LGEM, 96, 306N, 921W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080818, 03, LGEM, 108, 310N, 930W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080818, 03, LGEM, 120, 315N, 941W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
And we now have PGI27L over Western Africa.
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I think that surface trough seen by the NWS in Puerto Rico is developing into a broad but rather small in size surface low pressure center.
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The Montgomery Research Group has tagged the area at 65W/13N as "PGI26L"
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Quoting bappit:
93L does not look healthy on the CIMSS PREDICT images. The convection is well north of the circulation center

.



that product has the center all the way down at 20N, which it is nowhere near

Center is currently at 22.8N, much closer to the convection then that product shows
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
It has felt like something was up here in FL since yesterday....not usual weather.

Quoting gordydunnot:
We get a lot of pop thunder storms in S. Fl. not a lot of Squall lines unless there is a TC connection.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
We get a lot of pop thunder storms in S. Fl. not a lot of Squall lines unless there is a TC connection.
well said!!
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Something interesting in the Tropics.



Read the Discussion from NWS in San Juan, PR.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1217 PM AST sun Aug 8 2010

Update...the 12z sounding came in wetter and much more unstable
than yesterday. The cap that kept convection at Bay over Puerto
Rico and generally suppressed over the surrounding waters is now
gone. Also the relative humidity from the surface to 20 thousand
feet was generally above 66 percent except for a drier layer
between 8 and 14 thousand feet. This boosted the precipitable
water to 1.95 inches and yielded a lifted index of minus 6.5.
Winds were generally uniform above the surface and ranged from
east to northeast at 10 to 20 knots to 23 thousand feet. This will
create a favorable environment for convection that was not seen
yesterday. Therefore have raised the probability of precipitation over the southwest
portion of Puerto Rico to 70 percent.

Discussion...an approaching low level trough can be seen extending
from 13 north 65 west to 18 north 62 west and is distinct from a
reflection of the upper level trough which extends from 250 mb
down to about 500 mb. The reflection of the upper level trough in
the middle levels is following upper level trough very closely and
was located at 23 north 54 west at 15z. It is expected to move to
23 north 60 west by early Tuesday. The the low level trough is
moving at about 11 knots toward the west northwest and will be
located near 22 north 70 west by early Tuesday. The low level
trough is being reflected up to about 500 mb and both troughs are
apparent at 500 mb...according to the GFS.


All of the above means that the low level trough...which appears
to be the source of the increased shower activity...will pass over
the area after 09/00z with most of the moisture behind it...hence
the additional showers forecast by 09/08-12z.


Another patch of moisture...which the GFS is occasionally
designating as a low...is moving northwest at 13 knots from a
position of 15.6 north 54.3 west at 08/1545z...is of interest to the
local area. For one...it is forming an arc of moisture in the
precipitable water product that will intersect Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands...and...two...it may curve to the left and move
directly over the local forecast area late on Tuesday bringing yet
another pulse of moisture. The combination of the connecting arc
of moisture and the weak low should make Tuesday more showery than
Monday...and these showers could continue into Wednesday depending
on the timing.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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