Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 780 - 730

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

We're sorry, but there seems to be an error…
The error has been logged as entry number 1281297413.080.814998797123.

If you need to report this to the site administration, please include this entry number in your message.


just lost navy site info i use
iam going blind now on info
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jazzygal:


I agree and happy belated birthday to you. Hope you had a good day.


It's not my birthday but thanks anyway ! Hope you had a good day too !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks interesting on radar (sorry about the 94L bias, just haven't had anything in the neighborhood for a while)

Quoting 7544:
less shear 94l may pull a surpise hold on
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L really looking impressive this afternoon... should be designated a td at 5 imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hang10z:


Wow there is a nasty line of storms about 30 miles north of me...


Must be close to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Goldenblack:
Watch out Miami! Coming into your area

Yup. All is good here.



Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
773. 7544
less shear 94l may pull a surpise hold on
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


The Center of Circulation is East of Kennedy Space Center Drifting South
at the end this means we will get alot of much needed rain in central and south florida very little chance of development before it comes ashore
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see 93L moving westward for awhile, looks very near TD Status, 94L off E coast of FL., 13n/78W Looks interesting also N of Panama , though everything there just fades into oblivion, or move inland CA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Exactly Sammy, I didn't see this earlier today, you think it is getting its act together, or is it just because it is closer to radar now?

Quoting sammywammybamy:


The Center of Circulation is East of Kennedy Space Center Drifting South
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BahaHurican
Afternoon all. Things sure have picked up in here since this a.m..... lol

I suppose that's the result of the yellow circle over my head.... lol



...ummm

Would that be a yellow halo like the one we see over Orca?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
93L looks better than Colin !!!


I agree and happy belated birthday to you. Hope you had a good day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
spin is still out there far enough east of fla does it have time to form into somthing before heading ssw tia .

the low is forming dude
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WELLINGTON AND THE LOXAHATCHEE...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WELLINGTON TO 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LION COUNTRY SAFARI...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ALONG THIS LINE.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...
FLORIDA GARDENS...

ABERDEEN...
BOYNTON BEACH...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
ALSO...THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES.


I am in Boynton and it looks really nasty to the northwest, this should be interesting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looked at the area in my vicinity on WV loop, and so far it looks pretty frontal. I suppose something may come of it in the GOM.... but that looks like Sept / Oct to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Probably not, but it is moving very very slowly right now.

Quoting 7544:
spin is still out there far enough east of fla does it have time to form into somthing before heading ssw tia .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Watch out Miami! Coming into your area

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WELLINGTON AND THE LOXAHATCHEE...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WELLINGTON TO 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LION COUNTRY SAFARI...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ALONG THIS LINE.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...
FLORIDA GARDENS...

ABERDEEN...
BOYNTON BEACH...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
ALSO...THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
758. 7544
spin is still out there far enough east of fla does it have time to form into somthing before heading ssw tia .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Things really happen fast this time of year. Would not have seen this coming if ECMWF hadn't been calling for this to happen for several days

Quoting Seflhurricane:
no caught me off guard i have been in and out today
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That's a rotating cold front.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WELLINGTON AND THE LOXAHATCHEE...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WELLINGTON TO 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LION COUNTRY SAFARI...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ALONG THIS LINE.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...
FLORIDA GARDENS...

ABERDEEN...
BOYNTON BEACH...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
ALSO...THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting btwntx08:

yes off the east of fl...u didnt relized it was there??
no caught me off guard i have been in and out today
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay, here is the tampa radar. You can see that storms moving north of tampa are coming in with a NW to SE motion, storms near Orlando are traveling NE to SW and storms south of tampa toward Lake Okeechobee are moving ESE. And whats that mess off the West Florida Coast showing big returns and motion?



Quoting Goldenblack:
With all the spin in the Atlantic right now...it is like we are all playing the game where you put your forehead on the bat, spin in circles and then run to the finish line.....very dizzy.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

yes off the east of fl...u didnt relized it was there??

didnt you notice its freaken pooring out lol my pool just overflowed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
750. xcool


UPDATE for 94L 93L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
INV/94/L
MARK
27.83N/80.03W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
747. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Seflhurricane:
94L where ???? off the florida coast ?????

off florida coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look pretty interesting on the RGB loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
743. Bonz
Quoting Goldenblack:
hmm, net loss would a death sentence for me....i'd be trying to use the blackberry to post and look at radar...it would be maddening...laughs




No kidding. If I had to choose between cable and Internet, there would be no contest. Besides, the little TV I have picks up a few decent stations, so I can watch the news.

Looks like we have more storms coming, if they don't die out between Palm Beach County and here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With all the spin in the Atlantic right now...it is like we are all playing the game where you put your forehead on the bat, spin in circles and then run to the finish line.....very dizzy.

Quoting 7544:
ok isee xcool the spin east of melbourne is moving south im dizzy now lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
The Montgomery Research Group has tagged the area at 65W/13N as "PGI26L"


Good call on that PSU. You have been asking about that one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AlexEmmett:
from navy site 94L
94L where ???? off the florida coast ?????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
from navy site 94L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Despite convection being to the northeast of the center, 93L is on it's way to becoming a depression. Wouldn't surprise me if it got upgraded tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good observation....I see it, so does xcool I think on his image. Reminds me of last year when Claudette spun up quickly from nowhere

Quoting portcharlotte:

I see it too...Noticed it several hours ago

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:

Convection is still displaced NE of the center.
See post 727.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would say that 93L now is a tropical depression...LLC near 23.0N.


Convection is still displaced NE of the center.

Edit: yah, 93L is feeling the ULL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
734. xcool
7544 .LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
I would agree xcool, just a bit to the west, but very slight. S, SSW

Quoting xcool:
moveing S 94L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like 93L is very close to Depression Status just needs a good jolt of convection over the center, what has been also intresting is all of the systems thus far have had a hard time forming and sustaining alot of upper level lows this year thus far
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Depression Colin
National Hurricane Center Intermediate Advisory #19A
2pm EDT Graphics Update





Tropical Storm Estelle
National Hurricane Center Advisory #11
11am EDT Graphics Update

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 780 - 730

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.