Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 830 - 780

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130817
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130817
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Because it isn't a model, it just shows how the MJO should propagate.


and its been wrong for most of the season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Because it isn't a model, it just shows how the MJO should propagate.

Ok. I didn't know that until know. Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130817
Quoting tornadolarkin:
Why does this model show the mjo backing off?
Because it isn't a model, it just shows how the MJO should propagate.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Why does this model show the mjo backing off?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
821. xcool
New Tropical System Could Form in Gulf of Mexico


While Colin poses no threat to the U.S., there are other features of interest across the Atlantic Basin that could. In fact, the potential exists for a new tropical system to form in the Gulf of Mexico and impact the Gulf Coast states this upcoming week.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reports that a frontal boundary stretched along the coast of the Southeast and across central Florida would be the culprit behind this development.

Already, an area of low pressure has formed along this front offshore of Georgia. This low is expected to move westward across the Florida peninsula tonight into Monday and emerge over the eastern Gulf Tuesday.

Once over the Gulf, this low will have an opportunity to develop into a tropical system through Wednesday. Computer models currently show this feature moving west-northwestward into an area between Louisiana and the upper Texas coast toward the latter half of the week






People with interests along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida should regularly check back with AccuWeather.com for updates on this potential over the next few days.

If this system does develop tropically, it will compete with another area of low pressure out over the central Atlantic for the next name on the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season list, which is Danielle.

For people living in and visiting Florida, the low will bring widespread, locally heavy thunderstorms to the central and southern peninsula through Monday. Flash flooding could result in some areas along with disruptions to travel.





Link

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
With a LLC as defined as 93L's, I would think the NHC would just go ahead and initiate advisories shortly as upper level conditions begin to improve.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My current areas of interest, I also gave them a percentage of turning into a tropical depression.


Very nice, my thinking also, the area N of Panama if it could pull more N 10-20%, but you know the tale of systems in that area this season with the exception of Alex.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
invest 94L GOT LOTS OF RAIN WITH IT.

fantastic observation jason, the overflowing pool in my backyard gave it away though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
816. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting psuweathernewbie:


That has already been mentioned. Possible broad surface low forming.

Tks, didn't know just logged on and didn't read back.Well at least someone else noticed it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jason you dont have to tell me about that, i am completely aware of it. Got flood watches up the ying yang here in south florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL, true enough, we are following the same developments.....

Quoting plywoodstatenative:


by my name, you should know I am talking about 94L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Here in Boca Raton.. Drizzling..

Looking to the North... it looks pretty dark....

Were about to get hit by a Squall..

Boynton Beach reported a Funnel cloud with the storm.


Looks like Boca is about to miss all the red on the radar but it is getting darker.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Goldenblack:
On which system?



by my name, you should know I am talking about 94L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadolarkin:
I think 93L is trying to close its circulation.

I think its closed, just exposed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
I just noticed a small spin N of the ABC Islands might bear watching also.


That has already been mentioned. Possible broad surface low forming.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On which system?

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Item to bring up, using the rainbow feature on th NHC's page you can see a large developing rotation NORTH of all the convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Flagged and reported - I was wasnt even here the last few days, Pity we, who have been here longer than most of you have to put up with this kind of garbage.


Wow he was so not talking about you, geez overreact much?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My current areas of interest, I also gave them a percentage of turning into a tropical depression.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Looks like its getting close! 93L could be well on its way....NHC has no reason to hurry the classification though

Quoting tornadolarkin:
I think 93L is trying to close its circulation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Item to bring up, using the rainbow feature on th NHC's page you can see a large developing rotation NORTH of all the convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think 93L is trying to close its circulation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TAFB's thoughts 3 days out:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i did not even know that there was a 94L and that it was off the coast i have wondered why it has rained all day is there any concern for the lakewood ranch/sarasota/bradenton area of florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
for what tracking storms i always wait till its unclassfied for public distribution

jk but im mre concerned about 94L it is comming down about 2 inches an hour here one palm beach with no signs of stoping
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just noticed a small spin NE of the ABC Islands might bear watching also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


It's not my birthday but thanks anyway ! Hope you had a good day too !


Sorry it was WeatherNerdPR. Hope you had a good day anyway and WeatherNerdPR-Happy belated birthday to you!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
791. xcool
AlexEmmett .HEY ;)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting AlexEmmett:

watch out keep the fbi maybe comming to your door
for what tracking storms i always wait till its unclassfied for public distribution
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
786. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
GOM waters are HOTHOT OH BOY

dude and 94L is still feeding of the gom waters and the 90 degree temp water off the east coast of florida pry for shear, shear is our friend right now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
784. xcool
GOM waters are HOTHOT OH BOY
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormW
COLIN AND FRIENDS SYNOPSIS...

IMHO Colin has too many friends.
The whole tropical Atlantic looks like a pinball machine gone mad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
We're sorry, but there seems to be an error…
The error has been logged as entry number 1281297413.080.814998797123.

If you need to report this to the site administration, please include this entry number in your message.


just lost navy site info i use
iam going blind now on info

watch out keep the fbi maybe comming to your door
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We're sorry, but there seems to be an error…
The error has been logged as entry number 1281297413.080.814998797123.

If you need to report this to the site administration, please include this entry number in your message.


just lost navy site info i use
iam going blind now on info
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 830 - 780

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Snow
14 °F
Light Snow

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley
Big Sur Clouds