Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Storms can blow up very quickly in the Gulf of Mexico. Such as Anita (1977) Not forecasting intensification like this, but it could.

Although that northerly shear will have to stop.



wow..... that is crazy. That is the scary thing...go to bed thinking your getting a tropical depression and wake up to something a lot worse.....Is the shear suppose to relax?
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Quoting DestinJeff:


dare I say full of booze and general debauchery?


they were IB students in high school, Deans list in college right now. They're pretty boring kids, thank God.

I meant the WEATHER....
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I disagree. I think it will not develop until after crossing Florida.
Huh? I'm talking about 93L...you're talking about 94L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
NNE wind at 012 buoy and SSW at 010 buoy.

Must be a center between the 2...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
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...THE URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 428 PM EDT...STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
PALM BEACH LAKES BOULEVARD AND CONGRESS AVENUE IN WEST PALM BEACH.
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN HAS LESSENED...LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ACROSS THE WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN
AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE WORTH EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH
PALM BEACH REGIONAL AIRPORT. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THIS AREA. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting tornadolarkin:
...COLIN HAS DISSIPATED...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


*applauds for Colins determination to keep going*
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plywood- you're south of miami, right?
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I think that the percentage at 8PM on 93L will go up with tropical depression classification either at 11PM EDT or early tomorrow morning.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting DestinJeff:
My blogcast for 94L...

94L will "look more like a TD than some others we've seen so far this year" by approximately 3 p.m. EDT tomorrow.

Blog will insist it be named by 5 a.m. Tuesday, based on "good satellite presentation"

Ike will post NWS discussions with bolded sections indicating little to no development in the GOM

Track will be disputed heavily. First tracks will be out to lunch because of no LLC, then they will latch on, then will "need to shift" in whichever direction necessary to get to a particular geographic location.

Texas bloggers will be on after 94L enters the GOM. They will insist it looked like it was headed west, or wsw, in the last frame. Or maybe it was a jog.

CIMMS steering maps will be posted to support any given argument for track.

Ike will posts NWS discussions with bolded sections that support little to no development of 94L in the GOM.

94L will get named, but then look pitiful.

Then it will blow up some nice convection around the LLC, but we'll need to see if it sustains.

Then it will come ashore and the debate about intensity will rage.



By George I think you nailed it!
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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
NO Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of SUN 08 Aug 2010 20:36:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
94L.INVEST
93L.INVEST
East Pacific
07E.ESTELLE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
05W.FIVE
99W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
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Jasons videos LOL.. wow, he should have his own show... About 94L, should be watched over the next few days.
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aqua the roads down here are flooded no pun intended. The weather is extremely bad down here.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Cue the Gulf SSTs:



What are SST's? What does the red mean in the Gulf? Really HOT waters?
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Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop
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and someone's plans to go to Location X will be in jeopardy because of 94L. StormW will be asked what his thoughts are regarding that location. He will defer.

whoa nelly! I got dibs on that one. Dau is driving to Fort Laudy right now w/3 friends, for a week in a condo.

How's her week gonna be?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
That northerly shear over 94L looks fierce.


And thats the reason systems moving sw in our neck of the woods have a difficult time organizing.
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Colin is gone now, dissipated
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...COLIN HAS DISSIPATED...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
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Yeah, can still see the center just north and attached to the convection off of Cape Canaveral on RGB:

Western Atlantic Rainbow

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
That northerly shear over 94L looks fierce.
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
wow invest 94L go in the GOM WATCH OUT WITH WATER TEMP AROUND 90F..SOME BAD THING WILL HAPPERN VERY FAST..I SAW TROPICAL STORMS GO IN THE GOM BEFORE WHEN THERE HIT THE HOT WATER THERE GO TO A TROPICAL STORM TO A CAT 3 HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS I SAW IT HAPPERN BEFORE.


I was swimming in the gulf today!!!! IT was not refreshing at all... Very very very warm.. Frankly, when I got out of the water I was still sweating!!

Afternoon everyone
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
834. DestinJeff 8:26 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

Excellent, that about sums it up correctly!
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94L Floater
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Not a very impressive trend yet, but the pressures east of Cape Canaveral are steadily going down
By the way, the "dry pocket" I was in in the Tampa Bay area is definitely not dry now!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
My blogcast for 94L...


EXCELLENT JOB!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
My blogcast for 94L...

94L will "look more like a TD than some others we've seen so far this year" by approximately 3 p.m. EDT tomorrow.

Blog will insist it be named by 5 a.m. Tuesday, based on "good satellite presentation"

Ike will post NWS discussions with bolded sections indicating little to no development in the GOM

Track will be disputed heavily. First tracks will be out to lunch because of no LLC, then they will latch on, then will "need to shift" in whichever direction necessary to get to a particular geographic location.

Texas bloggers will be on after 94L enters the GOM. They will insist it looked like it was headed west, or wsw, in the last frame. Or maybe it was a jog.

CIMMS steering maps will be posted to support any given argument for track.

Ike will posts NWS discussions with bolded sections that support little to no development of 94L in the GOM.

94L will get named, but then look pitiful.

Then it will blow up some nice convection around the LLC, but we'll need to see if it sustains.

Then it will come ashore and the debate about intensity will rage.
ROFLMAO!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
DestinJeff- you forgot to add that SHIPS models will have it blowing up into a Cat2.
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844. xcool
MiamiHurricanes09 lol
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Quoting DestinJeff:
My blogcast for 94L...

94L will "look more like a TD than some others we've seen so far this year" by approximately 3 p.m. EDT tomorrow.

Blog will insist it be named by 5 a.m. Tuesday, based on "good satellite presentation"

Ike will post NWS discussions with bolded sections indicating little to no development in the GOM

Track will be disputed heavily. First tracks will be out to lunch because of no LLC, then they will latch on, then will "need to shift" in whichever direction necessary to get to a particular geographic location.

Texas bloggers will be on after 94L enters the GOM. They will insist it looked like it was headed west, or wsw, in the last frame. Or maybe it was a jog.

CIMMS steering maps will be posted to support any given argument for track.

Ike will posts NWS discussions with bolded sections that support little to no development of 94L in the GOM.

94L will get named, but then look pitiful.

Then it will blow up some nice convection around the LLC, but we'll need to see if it sustains.

Then it will come ashore and the debate about intensity will rage.


*snicker*
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


and its been wrong for most of the season
Yup, with all the heat focused on the Atlantic there is no way that the MJO wants to leave. It's basically like a man with a big sweet tooth in a French bakery, he never wants to leave...yes I know, bad example. LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting pvbeachbum:


Sounds great Hydrus - I am near AquaK - but out on the barrier island and the little bit of rain we got yesterday was only a teaser...


PVbum- please call me Aqua- and I am so mad, I could SPIT. Talk about the DRY side? oh I am so mad.
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838. xcool
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Quoting hydrus:
I will do the N.E Florida Rain Dance for you. Then the rain will fall.


Sounds great Hydrus - I am near AquaK - but out on the barrier island and the little bit of rain we got yesterday was only a teaser...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My current areas of interest, I also gave them a percentage of turning into a tropical depression.



I agree 100%.
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Quoting StormW:
Next:



Do you have any other angles, Storm? You posted one a few days ago looking west to east
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833. jscs
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


by my name, you should know I am talking about 94L


By your name, I would think you were talking about Oregon.
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Quoting xcool:
New Tropical System Could Form in Gulf of Mexico


While Colin poses no threat to the U.S., there are other features of interest across the Atlantic Basin that could. In fact, the potential exists for a new tropical system to form in the Gulf of Mexico and impact the Gulf Coast states this upcoming week.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reports that a frontal boundary stretched along the coast of the Southeast and across central Florida would be the culprit behind this development.

Already, an area of low pressure has formed along this front offshore of Georgia. This low is expected to move westward across the Florida peninsula tonight into Monday and emerge over the eastern Gulf Tuesday.

Once over the Gulf, this low will have an opportunity to develop into a tropical system through Wednesday. Computer models currently show this feature moving west-northwestward into an area between Louisiana and the upper Texas coast toward the latter half of the week






People with interests along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida should regularly check back with AccuWeather.com for updates on this potential over the next few days.

If this system does develop tropically, it will compete with another area of low pressure out over the central Atlantic for the next name on the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season list, which is Danielle.

For people living in and visiting Florida, the low will bring widespread, locally heavy thunderstorms to the central and southern peninsula through Monday. Flash flooding could result in some areas along with disruptions to travel.





Link



yeah, I saw that....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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