Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Joe

"TPC now up to "high" prob of development with system I had with Tweet last Tuesday ( Tue Aug 3 07:16:03 2010 via web )"

"Gulf coast residents... see that blob northeast of FLA? That represents what may be the start of a trouble maker next week 2:33 PM Aug 7th via web "


Link
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Howdy everyone
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928. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting NotJFV:
should i go to home depot...publix....Im scured..... I have my generator hooked up amd the shutters ready to go down.... anyone have FEMA's #... IM terrified an invest is knocking at my door....

i sense sarcasum lol
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Quoting MrstormX:
93L has been a TC for some time now, goes to show the nhc doesn't really care about accurate forecasts for open waters. 2005 had so many storms because the nhc recognized them as such.


No, it's had a closed circulation for "some time now". It's obviously not a tropical cyclone. Yet.
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Now that 94L has got everybody's (or at least most Floridians) attention I want to repeat a question I asked earlier from you all meteorological mavens with long memories. Was there a discussion that a storm over lake Okeechobee can get a burst of energy (I think back to Fay) or was that an unrelated fluke. Can't honestly remember. By the way Levi are you lurking? Would love to see you make one of your presentations on 94L.
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Quoting ColdInFL:
Is this another effect of "global warming"?

Link


No one can be sure just yet. But with the massive amounts of CO2 we've been pumping into the atnosphere ovber the last decades, it's certainly possible. The thing, Big Energy continues to experiment with our planet in such a way that unintended consequences are sure to keep cropping up; this may--or may not--be one of them. Or it could be cyclical; data is unavailable beyond 30 years back or so, so we'll have to wait and see.
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93L still has a little ways to go before becoming a TD. But as it moves over warmer waters convection should increase. Dry air could remain somewhat of an inhibitor in the near term though.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
INV/94/L
MARK
27.80N/80.11W

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Quoting aquak9:


she's 19.

PV, we got about 100 teeth this morning down at Guana. Some really big ones, too, it was a really pretty day out there.


Wow Aqua! 100 teeth! The waves must be doing good... our neighbor across the street's son is working on his Eagle project adding panels and roofs to the information kiosks at the Guana beach accesses - maybe you saw some of his work?

My daughter is 20 and a junior at UNF on the President's/Dean's list also...
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93L has been a TC for some time now, goes to show the nhc doesn't really care about accurate forecasts for open waters. 2005 had so many storms because the nhc recognized them as such.
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Quoting aquak9:


she's 19.

PV, we got about 100 teeth this morning down at Guana. Some really big ones, too, it was a really pretty day out there.
Whoa! 100? Darn you most have a great collection there.
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BrowardJeff- thank you!!
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Quoting pvbeachbum:

Probably not too great Aqua - how old is your daughter?


she's 19.

PV, we got about 100 teeth this morning down at Guana. Some really big ones, too, it was a really pretty day out there.
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Quoting sgvalenti:




Hurricane Alicia
I doubt he was around to see that
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94L a hurricane... lol
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ya'll please be nice to Jason. I watched some of his videos- he's always a happy fellow. He never is mean or cruel to anyone here. I bet his family loves him, I bet at Christmastime, he's the happiest guy on the planet.

Grown-ups can be so mean and hateful. I don't think this guy has a hateful bone in his body. And God made us all different.

Just had to toss that out there...
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TCHP quickly on the rise in the GoM:

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Quoting sgvalenti:




Hurricane Alicia

http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1983_charts/at198301.gif


How bout Humberto. I remember I woke up in the morning expecting rain. Checked my phone at lunch found I was under a hurricane warning.

Link
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Quoting hunkerdown:
+100
You sure you really did "plus" it 100 times? Cuz I'm gettin' the feelin' you only did it about 3 times before gettin' bored.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I disagree. I think it will not develop until after crossing Florida.
he said 93L. not 94L
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Quoting hunkerdown:
please, do tell...




Hurricane Alicia
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Quoting aquak9:
and someone's plans to go to Location X will be in jeopardy because of 94L. StormW will be asked what his thoughts are regarding that location. He will defer.

whoa nelly! I got dibs on that one. Dau is driving to Fort Laudy right now w/3 friends, for a week in a condo.

How's her week gonna be?

Probably not too great Aqua - how old is your daughter?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ROFLMAO!
+100
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Quoting aquak9:
whoa nelly! I got dibs on that one. Dau is driving to Fort Laudy right now w/3 friends, for a week in a condo.

How's her week gonna be?

She'll be ok for most of the week..might have to spend some time indoors.

I'm about 10 minutes west of Fort Lauderdale. Weather has sucked most of the day..we're in a flood watch through tomorrow. Most of the area drains well, though. I don't expect it to be bad.

We're forecast for rain the next few days, dropping to 30% later in the week. If it's the typical pattern, the morning will be nice. We'll have a thunderstorm in the afternoon. T evening will be clear.

I certainly intend to be in Fort Lauderdale several evenings this week..got a friend's 50th birthday party on Tuesday, and my regular bar outing on Wednesday.

Feel free to drop me a WU mail if you need anything.
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
wow invest 94L go in the GOM WATCH OUT WITH WATER TEMP AROUND 90F..SOME BAD THING WILL HAPPERN VERY FAST..I SAW TROPICAL STORMS GO IN THE GOM BEFORE WHEN THERE HIT THE HOT WATER THERE GO TO A TROPICAL STORM TO A CAT 3 HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS I SAW IT HAPPERN BEFORE.
please, do tell...
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899. 7544
93l crossing fla wow i think we are all dizzy now lol
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Quoting aquak9:


PVbum- please call me Aqua- and I am so mad, I could SPIT. Talk about the DRY side? oh I am so mad.


Me too Aqua - I have no lawn left to speak of... looks like all the rain is south of Orlando and the Cape and they are getting plenty while we turn into a desert up here...
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Quoting DestinJeff:
My blogcast for 94L...

94L will "look more like a TD than some others we've seen so far this year" by approximately 3 p.m. EDT tomorrow.

Blog will insist it be named by 5 a.m. Tuesday, based on "good satellite presentation"

Ike will post NWS discussions with bolded sections indicating little to no development in the GOM

Track will be disputed heavily. First tracks will be out to lunch because of no LLC, then they will latch on, then will "need to shift" in whichever direction necessary to get to a particular geographic location.

Texas bloggers will be on after 94L enters the GOM. They will insist it looked like it was headed west, or wsw, in the last frame. Or maybe it was a jog.

CIMMS steering maps will be posted to support any given argument for track.

Ike will posts NWS discussions with bolded sections that support little to no development of 94L in the GOM.

94L will get named, but then look pitiful.

Then it will blow up some nice convection around the LLC, but we'll need to see if it sustains.

Then it will come ashore and the debate about intensity will rage.

omfg...hilarious......
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Storms can blow up very quickly in the Gulf of Mexico. Such as Anita (1977) Not forecasting intensification like this, but it could.

Although that northerly shear will have to stop.





Hurricane Alicia

http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1983_charts/at198301.gif
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889. xcool
gonna be interesting 94L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting TexasHurricane:


wow..... that is crazy. That is the scary thing...go to bed thinking your getting a tropical depression and wake up to something a lot worse.....Is the shear suppose to relax?


After 36 hours, the shear will relax, although the upper wind flow will not be anticyclonic. But the shear will be light enough to favor steady intensification.
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214
fxus62 kmfl 081934
afdmfl


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
334 PM EDT sun Aug 8 2010


..atmosphere is primed for heavy rain - Flood Watch continues...


Discussion...the atmosphere is loaded with moisture with GPS met
showing precipitable water values in the 2.3-2.5 range. This combined with
continued surface/low level convergence across the area will
continue a heavy rain threat through Monday...possibly even into
Tuesday. Flood Watch continues across all of Mainland South Florida
through Monday afternoon. See hydrology section below for details
about rainfall expectations.


Surface trough off the east central Florida coast will continue to
move slowly SW tonight-Mon...possibly developing into a weak low
passing over central Florida Monday then out into the Gulf by Tuesday.
Satellite and radar trends today started with a strong convective
band which developed over our local Atlantic waters...then
convection developed over the peninsula along with another well-
defined band of convection which developed off the west central
Gulf Coast...though cloud tops are warming recently. As the
trough or low moves SW tonight...concern is for the convective
band off west central Florida to possibly flare up again
overnight...and given the progression of the trough...am concerned
about the possibility of this band to affect the Gulf
Coast/greater Naples area overnight. For this reason...have
increased probability of precipitation to likely there throughout the night along with
heavy rainfall mention. It is possible that convection may stay
just offshore or to the northwest...but current assessment
suggests the latter scenario of potential heavy rain.


For the interior and East Coast tonight...diurnal cooling will
gradually stabilize things...with convection expected to
concentrate over the Atlantic waters. However...models do depict
an arching band of heavy quantitative precipitation forecast from the Gulf to the southern tip of
the peninsula to just off our Atlantic coast...literally hugging
the coast. Do believe that the bulk of the heaviest rain overnight
will remain offshore. But have kept chance probability of precipitation overnight
interior/east for the possibility of convection continuing or even
moving in from the S-SW late.


Monday looks wet as the flow turns southerly as the trough or weak
low traverses the peninsula...probably over central Florida. This
places South Florida in a moist flow with good convergence so
continued likely probability of precipitation area wide for Monday along with continued
heavy rainfall wording. The trough or low will pull out into the
Gulf by Tuesday...but there still could be the possibility of
localized heavy rain given convergence into the trough and
continued deep moisture. Conditions will gradually improve Wednesday and
beyond as we set into a more climatological regime as the ridge
begins to trek north.


&&




Hydrology...areal average rainfall amounts of 2-3" are expected
through Monday afternoon. That's not the issue. The concern is for
the potential for excessive rainfall in areas...due to the deep
tropical moisture in place - precipitable water values into the 99th percentile
for south FL! 3"+/hour rainfall rates are expected in the heaviest
storms...and where they persist...totals would really add up.
Luckily...storms have been on the move...though heavy rain is
impacting Palm Beach County as of this writing with an Urban Flood
Advisory for portions of the Palm Beach metropolitan area.


Localized rainfall amounts of 4-6" will be possible. Higher
amounts just cannot be ruled out. Given the potential for some
excessive rainfall...the Flood Watch continues for all of Mainland
South Florida through Monday afternoon.


&&




Marine...tranquil marine conditions in terms of prevailing
winds/seas will continue. However...and it's a big
however...numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
to affect the local waters with winds/seas higher in and near the
storms. This unsettled weather pattern




&&


Fire weather...no concerns.




&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 75 88 76 90 / 60 70 50 60
Fort Lauderdale 77 88 77 90 / 60 70 50 60
Miami 76 88 76 90 / 60 70 50 60
Naples 77 89 76 91 / 60 70 50 60


&&


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for coastal Broward-coastal
Collier-coastal Miami Dade-coastal Palm Beach-far South
Miami Dade-Glades-Hendry-inland Broward-inland Collier-
inland Miami Dade-inland Palm Beach-Mainland Monroe-metropolitan
Broward-metropolitan Miami Dade-metropolitan Palm Beach.


Am...none.
GM...none.
&&


$$


Long term...57/dg
short term/aviation...59/rm

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I disagree. I think it will not develop until after crossing Florida.


He said 93L not 94L lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I disagree. I think it will not develop until after crossing Florida.


That would be 94L
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Is this another effect of "global warming"?

Link
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Storms can blow up very quickly in the Gulf of Mexico. Such as Anita (1977) Not forecasting intensification like this, but it could.

Although that northerly shear will have to stop.



All depends where it is in respect to the loop eddies... That hot spinning water can really get things going as we all know...
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Storms can blow up very quickly in the Gulf of Mexico. Such as Anita (1977) Not forecasting intensification like this, but it could.

Although that northerly shear will have to stop.



wow..... that is crazy. That is the scary thing...go to bed thinking your getting a tropical depression and wake up to something a lot worse.....Is the shear suppose to relax?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.