Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Sorry Pat, but the Gulf Stream does not run up the middle of Fla...And I watched her strengthen while she passed all the way to the other side...And to add to that...If a storm keeps moving does it really matter how deep the water is? So long as you're not talking about a 2" puddle?

Hey cajun, good to see you. My personal uneducated guess is nada from 94l...Been wrong before and I promise I'll do it again.
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Quoting truecajun:


good observation. so i'm wondering if this 94L is going to be able to amount to much. is it going to be a TD or TS or what??


It doesn't take much TCHP to create a minimal hurricane. Not saying that's what we'll see, just saying.
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Quoting aquak9:


thou hast WU-Mail...


Thanks Aqua - you have an answer in WU mail...
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Quoting aquak9:
MH09- we got 1000's of teeth. Jars of'm. Would post a pic but well after the Recoon pic...I'm kinda scared.
Post it on my blog. I would love to see them.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I admitted it had a closed surface circulation. I just said it wasn't a TC, because as you said, convection is meager and not well organized.


They classified TD2 when surely was void of all convection, it even lost it's circulation an hour after it was classified. 93L looks way better then TD2
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YEah..Buzz,buzz.

A Deep thermocline always is needed for a Storm to strengthen..

One may carry its energy across a Small Sand Bar of a Given stretch,,but K had its S Fla Impact energy from the Gulf Stream as it approached Fla..not from the everglades.

Itsa Swamp..not a deep thermocline source.

Urban myths and legends arent Meteorology.

Take JFV for example


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting bappit:

Most of your rocket fuel is in the Caribbean. The Gulf does not have much depth to its warm water except for where the loop current has created an eddy.



Compare to the Caribbean.



good observation. so i'm wondering if this 94L is going to be able to amount to much. is it going to be a TD or TS or what??
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
Quoting bappit:

Most of your rocket fuel is in the Caribbean. The Gulf does not have much depth to its warm water except for where the loop current has created an eddy.



Compare to the Caribbean.

The depth is in the Caribbean, but the heat is in the GOMEX.
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Quoting IKE:
HPC puts a 1008mb low south of IKE in 3 days.....



I could totally see that advisory (THIS IS NOT A REAL ADVISORY!!) lol

TD #6 advisory

28.0N 85.0W
100 miles south of IKE lmao
Movement toward WNW away from IKE at 9mph
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7826
970. xcool


UPDATE


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969. IKE
Yeah....93L is lacking some needed convection.....




SAL...

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MH09- we got 1000's of teeth. Jars of'm. Would post a pic but well after the Recoon pic...I'm kinda scared.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
rocket fuel

Most of your rocket fuel is in the Caribbean. The Gulf does not have much depth to its warm water except for where the loop current has created an eddy.




Compare to the Caribbean.

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Katrina definitely utilized Lake O and the Glades...Just sayin...

Afternoon all, this has been a fly by...See ya!
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965. IKE
HPC puts a 1008mb low south of IKE in 3 days.....

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Quoting extreme236:


93L is not, and has not at any point been a tropical cyclone at any time so far. Dvorak T-numbers have yet to suggest organization is sufficient, with the highest numbers being a 1.0
If both TAFB and SAB raise it to T1.5 it should be sufficient to classify this as a 30mph TD...however that has yet to be seen. Let's see what we see at 00z.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
Is it probable, no. Is it possible, well, don't know about that. A slow mover and warm water...storms have been able to feed off the glades...


But don't the everglades cover a much larger area than Okeechobee? Correct me if I'm wrong.
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Quoting MrstormX:


I respectfully disagree, there is clearly a well defined closed LLC. Thunderstorm activity isn't the greatest but that didn't stop the nhc from naming TD-2... TCFA its all there


I admitted it had a closed surface circulation. I just said it wasn't a TC, because as you said, convection is meager and not well organized.
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Quoting pvbeachbum:


Wow Aqua! 100 teeth! The waves must be doing good... our neighbor across the street's son is working on his Eagle project adding panels and roofs to the information kiosks at the Guana beach accesses - maybe you saw some of his work?

My daughter is 20 and a junior at UNF on the President's/Dean's list also...


thou hast WU-Mail...
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Link
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


how scared do you want to be


:)
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
Quoting Huracaneer:
StSimonsIslandGAGuy. That's the discussion I remember. KoritheMan thought the Lake is too small, but Fay was not a huge storm either. Wonder if 94L will take a reverse Fay track?


Strengthening can happen over extremely swampy areas such as the Florida everglades... In fact a few years ago a TD was actually formed over land in the swamps of Louisiana I believe.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't recall such a discussion, and I personally don't think, unless the storm in question is particularly small, that such a small lake (comparatively speaking) can intensify a hurricane.
Is it probable, no. Is it possible, well, don't know about that. A slow mover and warm water...storms have been able to feed off the glades...
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Quoting MrstormX:


I respectfully disagree, there is clearly a well defined closed LLC. Thunderstorm activity isn't the greatest but that didn't stop the nhc from naming TD-2... TCFA its all there


93L is not, and has not at any point been a tropical cyclone at any time so far. Dvorak T-numbers have yet to suggest organization is sufficient, with the highest numbers being a 1.0
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting IKE:
...COLIN HAS DISSIPATED...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... thank goodness....RIP Colin......
5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 8
Location: 32.9°N 65.6°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1015 mb


another one bites the dust

with yet another knocking on the door
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93L heading into warmer waters which would support for it to fire some more convection.

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Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN EXTENT OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BAY
OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE W OF AREA MON. FRONTAL TROUGH LIES
OVER THE GULF FROM TAMPA BAY TO 28N85W TO NEAR GRANDE ISLE
LOUISIANA. DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG FRONTAL TROUGH OFF FLORIDA
EAST COAST WILL MOV TO 28N86W TUE...28N88W WED...AND 29N90W
THU...THEN INLAND OVER LOUISIANA FRI.


Follow dee trof Mon..



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
948. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN EXTENT OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BAY
OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE W OF AREA MON. FRONTAL TROUGH LIES
OVER THE GULF FROM TAMPA BAY TO 28N85W TO NEAR GRANDE ISLE
LOUISIANA. DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG FRONTAL TROUGH OFF FLORIDA
EAST COAST WILL MOV TO 28N86W TUE...28N88W WED...AND 29N90W
THU...THEN INLAND OVER LOUISIANA FRI.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No, it's had a closed circulation for "some time now". It's obviously not a tropical cyclone. Yet.


I respectfully disagree, there is clearly a well defined closed LLC. Thunderstorm activity isn't the greatest but that didn't stop the nhc from naming TD-2... TCFA its all there
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Quoting NotJFV:
should i go to home depot...publix....Im scured..... I have my generator hooked up amd the shutters ready to go down.... anyone have FEMA's #... IM terrified an invest is knocking at my door....


how scared do you want to be
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StSimonsIslandGAGuy. That's the discussion I remember. KoritheMan thought the Lake is too small, but Fay was not a huge storm either. Wonder if 94L will take a reverse Fay track?
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943. IKE
...COLIN HAS DISSIPATED...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... thank goodness....RIP Colin......
5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 8
Location: 32.9°N 65.6°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1015 mb
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941. 7544
hmm 94l doesent seem to want to go anywhere anytime soon just sitting around there
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Storms may maintain..over a Inland Lake,body of water,,but to deepen and intensify a Deep thermocline is needed.


But its a feel good thing to think so.

I guess.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
And in the "You can't make this stuff up dept"...

"My understanding of dissolved oil is that it is like if you take sugar and put it in a cup of hot tea...the molecules are gone."

----Whitehouse Energy Adviser Carol Browner,
who formerly headed the Environmental Protection Agency...


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Thanks KoritheMan. I think you are right, not enough area, although the waters can get pretty toasty.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
TCHP quickly on the rise in the GoM:

rocket fuel
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Sarcasm Flag: ON

Quoting NotJFV:
should i go to home depot...publix....Im scured..... I have my generator hooked up amd the shutters ready to go down.... anyone have FEMA's #... IM terrified an invest is knocking at my door....
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Quoting tornadolarkin:
...COLIN HAS DISSIPATED...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

Hooray!
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...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO METRO BROWARD...

AT 445 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF
CORAL SPRINGS TO MILE MARKER 30 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...
TAMARAC...
SUNRISE...
MARKHAM PARK...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
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Quoting Huracaneer:
Now that 94L has got everybody's (or at least most Floridians) attention I want to repeat a question I asked earlier from you all meteorological mavens with long memories. Was there a discussion that a storm over lake Okeechobee can get a burst of energy (I think back to Fay) or was that an unrelated fluke. Can't honestly remember. By the way Levi are you lurking? Would love to see you make one of your presentations on 94L.


I don't recall such a discussion, and I personally don't think, unless the storm in question is particularly small, that such a small lake (comparatively speaking) can intensify a hurricane.
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Joe

"TPC now up to "high" prob of development with system I had with Tweet last Tuesday ( Tue Aug 3 07:16:03 2010 via web )"

"Gulf coast residents... see that blob northeast of FLA? That represents what may be the start of a trouble maker next week 2:33 PM Aug 7th via web "


Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.