Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MrstormX:


You misunderstand my point, 93L in my opinion is a TD not Danielle. But I was saying if it was in the Gulf the nhc wouldn't be nearly as hesitant giving it a name. The NHC like any organization is imperfect, there is always room for improvements.


I don't see evidence of 93L being a TD. A closed circulation isn't enough.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting bappit:

Makes sense. The TCHP should take that into account then. Lake Okeechobee would show up as a glowing hot spot if it is 90 all the way down--what 50 feet? I'm not sure it's even that deep? I'm really guessing ... more so than usual. LOL
Lake Okeechobee is 13.73 feet in depth at the moment. It probably varies 2 feet /- or so between 2005 and now.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting bappit:
The northeast Gulf seems particularly low in TCHP despite the warm surface temps. Also, (MH09) the Caribbean makes the Gulf look weenie when comparing TCHP.





The Caribbean TCHP for comparison.



Not necessarily true. From Dr. Jeff Masters: "When using the TCHP map, TCHP is not really a good measurement in water that is shallow (less than 50 meters or so). Because TCHP is a function of volume and depth of warm water, TCHP will never appear to be high around coastlines/ocean shelves that are shallow. Remember Charley of 2004 strengthened significantly just offshore of SW FL. [That is,] in a region of low TCHP."
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1024. bappit
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
A deep thermocline prevents colder water from being upwelled easily. However, if a hurricane is over shallow water, there is no cold water to upwell. Lake Okeechobee was hot through and through.

Makes sense. The TCHP should take that into account then. Lake Okeechobee would show up as a glowing hot spot if it is 90 all the way down--what 50 feet? I'm not sure it's even that deep? I'm really guessing ... more so than usual. LOL
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Quoting IKE:


You got more rain out of that then you did TS Bonnie. Sometimes tropical systems can be overrated.
Yep. The thing with Bonnie is that she was small plus her rain weak, and to top it all off she was moving at 20+mph. This on the other hand is large, full of strong rain, and a slow mover.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting transitzone:


OMG! Did she say where they went? Must of flunked kiddygarten...


Oh, irony of ironies. Here, let me help you.
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1020. hang10z
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't recall such a discussion, and I personally don't think, unless the storm in question is particularly small, that such a small lake (comparatively speaking) can intensify a hurricane.


Actually most of s fl is everglades.. from lake Okeechobee south...which is actually a huge slow moving river 60 miles long and 100 miles wide, Wilma supposedly increased in strength as it crossed from w to e over s fl...
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Quoting extreme236:


This is partially false and I will tell you why. The NHC has reasoning to back up whatever they do. There is no possible reasoning that would let 93L be Danielle at this point in time. No data would be able to back that up.


You misunderstand my point, 93L in my opinion is a TD not Danielle. But I was saying if it was in the Gulf the nhc wouldn't be nearly as hesitant giving it a name. The NHC like any organization is imperfect, there is always room for improvements.
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1018. NotJFV
Quoting Patrap:

Observation is a cool thing.

But reality is in the numbers.

And the Loops.




WOW...wow..... Katrina ..... as she skirted down 95.....
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1017. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


....

POOF
Dude, he's just asking, he isn't familiar with this stuff. Don't poof him.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting sammywammybamy:


....

POOF


Poof....why?
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Yes it was Cajun...Those are the best times...I love being able to move him around like a sack of taters!

As for 94, you could be right...Like I said, been wrong before and promise to do it again sometime. I was just guessing. I'll certainly be keeping an eye on it the next few days though. Frontal systems are always tricky to call.
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1012. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's time to hunkerdown, here it comes, and it is coming hard.

I've got 1.83in so far.





You got more rain out of that then you did TS Bonnie. Sometimes tropical systems can be overrated.
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1010. bappit
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Erin in Oklahoma.


Say what? I don't doubt you, just wondering how the heck that happened?

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I bet by the next advisory L93 will be a TD beacuse if you look on the visible sat shows a closed COC just like Colin had when it came back.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
And in the "You can't make this stuff up dept"...

"My understanding of dissolved oil is that it is like if you take sugar and put it in a cup of hot tea...the molecules are gone."

----Whitehouse Energy Adviser Carol Browner,
who formerly headed the Environmental Protection Agency...




Are you working for Fox News? Nice use of the ellipsis there; Browner was referring to this week's report that speculated that an estimated 25% of the VOCs in the crude that gushered into the Gulf either evaporated or dissolved into the surrounding seawater in much the same way that sugar dissolves into tea. You are aware, aren't you, that the sugar molecules don't actually go away, right? They stay suspended in solution until they slowly precipitate.

I'll hand it to the Radical Right: they're far better than Progressives ever were at spin, lies, and distortions. Credit where credit is due...
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Expected to stay hot through september:

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Quoting StormJunkie:
Sorry Pat, but the Gulf Stream does not run up the middle of Fla...And I watched her strengthen while she passed all the way to the other side...And to add to that...If a storm keeps moving does it really matter how deep the water is? So long as you're not talking about a 2" puddle?

Hey cajun, good to see you. My personal uneducated guess is nada from 94l...Been wrong before and I promise I'll do it again.


hi there. good to cu2. your pic looks like a flyby as well;)

i'm thinking TS in LA if if lasts after FL.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
Quoting MrstormX:


Thats the sole issue with the nhc, there is absolutely no standardization what so ever. If 93L was in the middle of the GOM it very well would be Danielle. Stick TD 2 in the CATL and it never would have been made a TD. NHC just needs to normalize their standards for naming storms.


This is partially false and I will tell you why. The NHC has reasoning to back up whatever they do. There is no possible reasoning that would let 93L be Danielle at this point in time. No data would be able to back that up.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
It's time to hunkerdown, here it comes, and it is coming hard.

I've got 1.83in so far.



Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1002. bappit
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah because there is no water deeper than 100 feet along the coastal areas in the GOMEX that's why there is no TCHP. The Caribbean however is full of deep water, that is why there is much more TCHP there than in the GOMEX. However, when speaking about surface temperatures, the GOMEX prevails.

The NE Gulf is shallower than most of the Gulf--which does get down to a nice abyssal plain of 9000 feet deep--but I think the Gulf is deeper than 100 feet on the continental shelves. Hmmmm, need a good bathymetric map.
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Evening All.

Interesting little home brew in 94L, gotta watch out for those, they can tend to be a little feisty.
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Could the 94L go into SE TX? Not wishcasting...just asking...
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Quoting BDADUDE:
Major damage at my house in Bermuda. A few leaves blew into of my swimming pool. A friend of mine on south shore told me that his doormat blew over. We even had a sprinkiling of rain this morning!!


lol
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Exactly Pat...Look at the deepest burst of convection, to the south of the center, take place while she is over the center of Fla...Not the Gulf Stream...Not saying the Gulf Stream didn't give her a boost too...But Lake O and the Glades certainly offered some fuel to help her make the crossing uninhibited.
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Quoting MrstormX:


Thats the sole issue with the nhc, there is absolutely no standardization what so ever. If 93L was in the middle of the GOM it very well would be Danielle. Stick TD 2 in the CATL and it never would have been made a TD. NHC just needs to normalize their standards for naming storms.


I do agree there. Completely.
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People have talked how hot the GOM is for many years (hurricane seasons) because of the surface temps--to the extent of approaching folklore. Those cool (and this past Dec-Feb, even cooler/colder) winters take a bite out of the total heat the Caribbean does not feel.
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StormJunkie, good to see ya around here.
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Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Major damage at my house in Bermuda. A few leaves blew into of my swimming pool. A friend of mine on south shore told me that his doormat blew over. We even had a sprinkiling of rain this morning!!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I admitted it had a closed surface circulation. I just said it wasn't a TC, because as you said, convection is meager and not well organized.


Thats the sole issue with the nhc, there is absolutely no standardization what so ever. If 93L was in the middle of the GOM it very well would be Danielle. Stick TD 2 in the CATL and it never would have been made a TD. NHC just needs to normalize their standards for naming storms.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
And in the "You can't make this stuff up dept"...

"My understanding of dissolved oil is that it is like if you take sugar and put it in a cup of hot tea...the molecules are gone."

----Whitehouse Energy Adviser Carol Browner,
who formerly headed the Environmental Protection Agency...




OMG! Did she say where they went? Must of flunked kiddygarten...
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Quoting bappit:
The northeast Gulf seems particularly low in TCHP despite the warm surface temps. Also, (MH09) the Caribbean makes the Gulf look weenie when comparing TCHP.





The Caribbean TCHP for comparison.

Yeah because there is no water deeper than 100 feet along the coastal areas in the GOMEX that's why there is no TCHP. The Caribbean however is full of deep water, that is why there is much more TCHP there than in the GOMEX. However, when speaking about surface temperatures, the GOMEX prevails.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
PGI26L developing deeper convection over its center, could enhance development into a more defined center of circulation.
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Observation is a cool thing.

But reality is in the numbers.

And the Loops.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting reedzone:


They classified TD2 when surely was void of all convection, it even lost it's circulation an hour after it was classified. 93L looks way better then TD2


However, at 00z (a few hours before the classification), T-numbers were at least T1.5-2.0.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
The northeast Gulf seems particularly low in TCHP despite the warm surface temps. Also, (MH09) the Caribbean makes the Gulf look weenie when comparing TCHP.





The Caribbean TCHP for comparison.

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982. 7544
94l starting to fire just pulled in a big blob on convevtion hmmmm this one is strting to look better now sw
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
Quoting reedzone:


They classified TD2 when surely was void of all convection, it even lost it's circulation an hour after it was classified. 93L looks way better then TD2


I also don't agree with all of the NHC's decisions. Like that one. lol
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Sorry Pat, but the Gulf Stream does not run up the middle of Fla...And I watched her strengthen while she passed all the way to the other side...And to add to that...If a storm keeps moving does it really matter how deep the water is? So long as you're not talking about a 2" puddle?

Hey cajun, good to see you. My personal uneducated guess is nada from 94l...Been wrong before and I promise I'll do it again.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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