Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Look for TD05 shortly
Why do you say this?
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2332. smuldy 10:25 AM EDT on August 09, 2010

Hey, dude, couple words of advice ....

1) get some sleep! the a.m. crowd is usually the SOBER bunch.... lol

2) really, really leave the politics alone 2 the best of ur ability, especially during the season. [off season things are a bit more relaxed, but still.]

3) Welcome 2 the blog. If u are situated were u say u r and intend to stick around the area for a lighter storm, u should be getting photos and posting to wunderground.... that kinda stuff is cool and on topic, also.... lol

Have a good one!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Look for TD05 shortly
Was there a renumber?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Who said the Bermuda triangle was over water...
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Pulaski Shoal west of KW. Winds W at 12kts.
Venice Fl. winds ENE at 7kts.
Key West winds SW at 9kts.
Seems we have some circulation NW of Key West.
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Look for TD05 shortly
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Quoting sammywammybamy:



Couldnt Two form? lol




Right now, a low can develop anywhere within the broad area of low pressure as pictured from the NHC. The relocation west of FL is a best guess and most likely place for an LLC to develop at this time.

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OK my conclusion is there is no defined center yet...lets just wait and see what happens...clearly the models indicate it will get it act together in the SE GOM and from there towards the LA or MS gulf coast.. Just hope it stays a weak system
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Don't get to panic mode yet over invest 94L....we have 2 ULL near 94L...development if any will be very very slow.



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Check out the BOC, Something from the EPAC will get in there in 114 hours

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Check out this loop. It shows the broad circulation that is developing. The turning you are seeing on this loop to the East of South Florida is associated with the ULL. I believe 94L will consolidate very near the last best track positioning, to the SW of Fort Myers area.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
with Pat's input we now have 3 centers


That's unfortunate; CoC-fighting is illegal in Florida. ;-)

Seriously, though, Miami-centered reflectivity radar showss showers around Key West moving to the southwest, showers north of Cuba moving east, showers southeast of Miami moving north, showers east of Miami moving west, and showers in the Upper Keys nearly stationary. Just sayin'...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 09 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 10/1600Z
D. 26.0N 84.0W
E. 10/1730 - 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 11/0600Z -1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 11/0430Z
D. 27.0N 85.5W
E. 11/0500 -1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11104
Quoting TampaSpin:


One system...just seperate spins within currently.......typical of an unorganized system.
2010 - Year of the still fighting, highly sheared with some dry air, could develop, ULL to the east, Trash Storm....LOL
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2366. smuldy
btw one last off topic for the night, does anyone know how long profile pics normally take to be approved or why mine is still is not up 3-6 days later? it is a jpeg and i renamed it to a shorter name in case it had too many characters. again sorry for the off topic and thanks very much in advance for anyone that answers
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Good Morning!!

As I've seen here, 93L is organizing. The NHC has also said so. So I turn to possible tracks...Gordon 2006 is a good example of what might happen.

Hmmm.... not buying that Gordon track based on forecasts re: location of the AB high over the next 3 - 7 days....
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Good Morning Pat.......Available Doppler Radar is the "upside" of storms forming close to home or approaching the coast.....If we go by your loop (in terms of locating a possible COC) looks like we have a land cane in the making........ :)
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2363. Drakoen
Quoting cheezemm:
Drak, Storm, other experts...question for you!

Is there any way to tell how big a storm is going to be during its formation? Once the COC tightens up does its diameter help determine the "outside" diameter as well? Is there another factor I'm missing?

Although a bit morbid, when watching satellite images of Katrina/Ike what made them explode in size?


Not that I know of. You would first want to have a circulation that is better defined. The diameter of the system can then be found by looking a the isobars and how far they extend until the pressure is isobaric with the surrounding environment.
Tropical cyclone size is determined by the relative angular momentum. Momentum increases as you go poleward from the equator in the Atlantic basin. Large cyclones have great angular momentum which is theorize to be the result of convergence of angular momentum.
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Observing Miami Radar for the last hour it appears that a broad area of low pressure is developing SE of Miami in the Florida Straits. Echos appear to be developing and moving counter clock wise. Whether this is a trend or not remains to be seen
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Quoting whs2012:


Are they going to become 2 seperate invest? Or are they fighting?


One system...just seperate spins within currently.......typical of an unorganized system.
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2360. Patrap
There is only one circulation center...and its East of Tampa..moving west.

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2359. 7544
then the bahaama spin should or can become 95l maybe if it gains more conv right ?
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with Pat's input we now have 3 centers
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 091400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 09 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 10/1600Z
D. 26.0N 84.0W
E. 10/1730 - 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 11/0600Z -1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 11/0430Z
D. 27.0N 85.5W
E. 11/0500 -1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW
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2356. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



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Do we have two lows now? One ENE of Daytona and one WSW of Sarasota? I must seeing this all wrong.
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Man I HATE home brews!
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I think those tracks will change a bit and move further west
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2351. Patrap
The Circulation Center is Clearly here in the Middle of the State.






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Looks like we currently have one very large Circulation with 94L and two more concentrated smaller ones on each side of Florida.
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2349. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/94/L
MARK
25.67N/85.31W
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2346. 7544
Quoting sammywammybamy:


NO.

There is two Center's....

ONE OVER NASSUA.


ONE WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.



ahhh ok i see thats where the rain comes in for the so fla flood watch we have 2 spins now lol thanks for clearing that up
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Look to the South of GRAND BAHAMA...

circulation.







Looks mid level, look at visible
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Quoting KanKunKid:


Yeah, that is weird looking.
Morning, kid. Did u ever figure out how to post ur pics? We'd really like 2 be able to see what ur seeing....
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2343. smuldy
Quoting btwntx08:

94L got relocated now to off the sw coast of fl
bingo exactly what i meant thank you
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2342. MahFL
Hispaniola blob has nice outflow.
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Quoting SalinBDA:
I live in Bermuda and Colin was a nonevent.


Thats why i never watched it or even had interest in it. It wasn't even worth watching from satellite view
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2339. smuldy
Quoting Orcasystems:


You mean south and west of its previous position I presume... yes. Is thats it real location..I have no idea.. thats a StormW or Levi thingie.
no i did mean north and east, NHC update per 8am seemed further south, and alot of the CoC remarks seemed to have it already reforming more west than where the L originates on those tracks so just wondered if they had up to date data in the runs since its basically just a mess of a low
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I live in Bermuda and Colin was a nonevent.
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2336. Squid28
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning all..........LOOKS like we got a true Bermuda Triangle....LOL





Or we could go with a national treasure theme and say it is the first piece of a masonic puzzle...
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west of Cape Coral and Naples
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2330. Patrap
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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