Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I just thought this was so cool, it's like a blanket that is about to go over me.



Wow you live high up there eh? At least you don't have to worry about flooding
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Quoting MrstormX:


I suppose it depends on what you consider to be organized.


And for that reason, that's why we have the Dvorak classification system that the NHC uses.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1078. Patrap
Quoting jazzygal:


Sorry to hear that. At least he was able to see the Saints win a Superbowl.


Yeas indeed.

He was a Visionary and a Good Man,civic Leader and father.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Hades of course the one person here who does not like your forecast out of everyone is Patrap, thats right down his alley
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Quoting cybergrump:

It sure is im off of sw 40street 99 ave
you are very close to me i am off 102 ave and 40 st
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Quoting extreme236:


Look at the definition. An organized system of persistent clouds and thunderstorms. They have been persistent but the organization has not been sufficient.


I suppose it depends on what you consider to be organized.
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I just thought this was so cool, it's like a blanket that is about to go over me.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Jason i like your videos... Even though your Crazy, lol

i agree jason give us all a laugh and by a tranch coat and some candy and go up to a little kid as a joke and say do you want some candy
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1072. Patrap
The GOM is at Peak TCHP..all the Gulf at 82F plus in at Least the Top 100 ft of the water column.

Thats a Bad thing.

And if a Cyclone forms in the Eastern GOM,..there is a plenty of Fuel to Support it.

To any Cat Size.

Easily.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1071. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


31C waters.. quite warm
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
coming down with vengence here in west miami dade w/ gusty winds

It sure is im off of sw 40street 99 ave
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21z RUC, +21 hours... it appears 94L splits or am I seeing this wrong.


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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
coming down with vengence here in west miami dade w/ gusty winds
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1067. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting Patrap:
Dave Dixon, visionary behind Saints, Superdome, dies at 87


by Dominic Massa / Eyewitness News

wwltv.com

Posted on August 8, 2010 at 12:46 PM


NEW ORLEANS -- Dave Dixon, the visionary New Orleans businessman whose determination and drive brought the city the New Orleans Saints and landmark Louisiana Superdome, died Sunday at the age of 87.

Mr. Dixon had been in failing health in recent weeks and died Sunday morning at home, according to his son Frank Dixon.

Mr. Dixon, a businessman, art and antiques dealer and entrepreneur, is widely recognized as the father of professional football in New Orleans, helping bring the city its NFL franchise on November 1, 1966.


Sorry to hear that. At least he was able to see the Saints win a Superbowl.
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1065. NotJFV
Link

everyonhe go back and look at Bono omg

and yes this weather stinks
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1064. bappit
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I remember the radar plots showing the 'eye' for several hours. It certainly appeared to be a tropical system. A closed eye. A good eyewall. Spiral bands. The whole schmeer.

No way man (from Hong Kong Fuey theme song).
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6100
1063. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1062. aquak9
MH09- I put the teeth in your blog
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1059. aquak9
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Jason i like your videos... Even though your Crazy, lol


sammy can you post some links to his other videos? I already saw the one with the can of whipped cream
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1058. bappit
A large chunk of that lower TCHP area in the northeast GOM is clearly in water over a thousand feet deep.

I still don't see much rocket fuel in the Gulf generally speaking. Otherwise, traversing the loop current (where there is rocket fuel) would not be such a big deal.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6100
Quoting Neapolitan:


Not necessarily true. From Dr. Jeff Masters: "When using the TCHP map, TCHP is not really a good measurement in water that is shallow (less than 50 meters or so). Because TCHP is a function of volume and depth of warm water, TCHP will never appear to be high around coastlines/ocean shelves that are shallow. Remember Charley of 2004 strengthened significantly just offshore of SW FL. [That is,] in a region of low TCHP."
I wonder if u guys noticed that areas like the Great Bahama Bank and the continental shelf of FL's Big Bend area are not represented as having TCHP. I believe that is because these areas are so shallow that getting an accurate TCHP reading is like trying to read land. To all intents and purposes, the Everglades would read the same.

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That line of storms on the radar just over me right now in dade and its blowing like 25 gust to 30.
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Quoting MrstormX:


The official definition of a TD from NOAA, "An organized system of persistent clouds and thunderstorms with a closed low-level circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 knots) or less."

Closed LLC - Yes
Wind Speeds 38mph or less - Yes
Persistent Clouds and thunderstorms - How long have we had 93L now? Although the convection is relatively weak id call it persistent so, Yes.


Look at the definition. An organized system of persistent clouds and thunderstorms. They have been persistent but the organization has not been sufficient.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1054. Ossqss
Click to enlarge,,,, gonna need NOAA's Arc here soon :)

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Ok, this really was supposed to be a flyby and y'all sucked me in...I'm out.

Everyone have a great evening.
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Quoting extreme236:


I don't see evidence of 93L being a TD. A closed circulation isn't enough.


The official definition of a TD from NOAA, "An organized system of persistent clouds and thunderstorms with a closed low-level circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 knots) or less."

Closed LLC - Yes
Wind Speeds 38mph or less - Yes
Persistent Clouds and thunderstorms - How long have we had 93L now? Although the convection is relatively weak id call it persistent so, Yes.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Expected to stay hot through september:



Where did you find this fabulous visual?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
94L is More of an Event then Tropical Storm Bonnie.....


hahahahah so try bonnie didnt even flood my pool 94l did and it not even classifyed yet
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Quoting StormJunkie:
1036...
Hey Energy..Good post. I'm not sure I buy the fact that China is being conservative with their energy...If I'm not mistaken, exactly the opposite is true. They are now entering a consumerism stage from what I understood.


I will look this up from info on Doc's own blog material after I get back from church tonight... well, maybe even later since the inet goes down at night.

Basically, they are committed to better energy intensity (that is, more energy efficient consumerism, granted).
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1045. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
TROPICAL STORM ESTER (DIANMU)
5:00 AM PhST August 9 2010
=============================================

Tropical Storm ESTER further intensified as it continues to move towards the southern islands of Japan.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Ester "DIANMU"(1004) located at 24.6°N 125.6°E or530 km northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The storm is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots.

Signal Warning #1
=================

Luzon Region
-------------
1.Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
======================
Tropical Storm "Ester" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over Luzon and Western Visayas and the coastal waters over these areas will be rough and dangerous to small seacrafts and fishing boats.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 and areas over the western sections of Luzon and Visayas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
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1044. NotJFV
Quoting Patrap:
Dave Dixon, visionary behind Saints, Superdome, dies at 87


by Dominic Massa / Eyewitness News

wwltv.com

Posted on August 8, 2010 at 12:46 PM


NEW ORLEANS -- Dave Dixon, the visionary New Orleans businessman whose determination and drive brought the city the New Orleans Saints and landmark Louisiana Superdome, died Sunday at the age of 87.

Mr. Dixon had been in failing health in recent weeks and died Sunday morning at home, according to his son Frank Dixon.

Mr. Dixon, a businessman, art and antiques dealer and entrepreneur, is widely recognized as the father of professional football in New Orleans, helping bring the city its NFL franchise on November 1, 1966.

:-(
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This is on Accuweather.com

Already, an area of low pressure has formed along this front offshore of Georgia. This low is expected to move westward across the Florida peninsula tonight into Monday and emerge over the eastern Gulf Tuesday.

Once over the Gulf, this low will have an opportunity to develop into a tropical system through Wednesday. Computer models currently show this feature moving west-northwestward into an area between Louisiana and the upper Texas coast toward the latter half of the week.


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1036...
Hey Energy..Good post. I'm not sure I buy the fact that China is being conservative with their energy...If I'm not mistaken, exactly the opposite is true. They are now entering a consumerism stage from what I understood.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The NHC admits it wasn't frontal, and wasn't an extratropical cyclone, but fudges things by saying Erin didn't maintain organization long enough. Anyway....


The organization over Oklahoma was for a brief period of time. As they said, other forces caused Erin to reorganize overland.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting Neapolitan:


The thing, Big Energy continues to experiment with our planet in such a way that unintended consequences are sure to keep cropping up; this may--or may not--be one of them.


Correction: consumers, not big energy. I work for "big energy" and my family of 5's carbon footprint is less than 10 tonnes per year.

National Geographic link to an energy diet.

Please go on an energy diet. Please. Big energy is asking you to conserve (seriously). China and India exist and are growing (and much more conservation and green minded than the US, which acts like it has money to burn, litterally)

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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Im Sorry,

I Though you were Like..

Anyway your not a Troll.

IMO.. Lousiana is Problay where it goes.

BTW Im in South East Florida

And Ill Give you my Two Cents:

This Will be a Weak TS at Most in the next 48 Hours.

Dont Worry.


yeah, I'm not a troll.....thanks
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1034. NotJFV
Link

The 2010 cane season so far.... Ike I think you would enjoy this!!
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My rainfall total is about to go up another bit.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1032. smuldy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's time to hunkerdown, here it comes, and it is coming hard.

I've got 1.83in so far.

Wow barely been more than drizzle so far over here on the beach
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1031. Gearsts
Link Anyone here has notice this?looks like 2 centers on 93l 1 is moving north where the main center is.:/
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1965

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.