Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting bappit:

Nice map of surface temps.
Hey, I just swiped it from further up the page to show the shallow "bank / shelf" areas where TCHP readings are likely to be less ... useful....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
1129. NotJFV
Quoting StormGoddess:
A speed boat fleeing from a landslide caused by an aftershock. Yingxiu, Sichuan Province, China.
People flee a landslide on a speed boat as a result of aftershocks in Yingxiu, Sichuan Province, China

WOW WOW WOW..... awesome.. I hope they made it!!
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1128. hydrus
Quoting StormGoddess:
A speed boat fleeing from a landslide caused by an aftershock. Yingxiu, Sichuan Province, China.
People flee a landslide on a speed boat as a result of aftershocks in Yingxiu, Sichuan Province, China
Wow...Hope there tank is full.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Are you working for Fox News? Nice use of the ellipsis there; Browner was referring to this week's report that speculated that an estimated 25% of the VOCs in the crude that gushered into the Gulf either evaporated or dissolved into the surrounding seawater in much the same way that sugar dissolves into tea. You are aware, aren't you, that the sugar molecules don't actually go away, right? They stay suspended in solution until they slowly precipitate.

I'll hand it to the Radical Right: they're far better than Progressives ever were at spin, lies, and distortions. Credit where credit is due...



I got this out of the Pensacola News Journal today.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
post them to see those pics are always super cool
They'll be on my blog later. I couldn't catch a picture of the lightning though.
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Quoting NotJFV:

You shouldve seen the WU mail he sent me......omg.... I was like...really...really.....

This is hysterically funny. lmao
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Quoting Patrap:
One can just discern now the Overall Circulation..east of KSC in the Atlantic as the radar reaches way out..



cool. i saw it. neat.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1122. hydrus
Dianmu is a fairly large storm.
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Quoting bappit:
A large chunk of that lower TCHP area in the northeast GOM is clearly in water over a thousand feet deep.

I still don't see much rocket fuel in the Gulf generally speaking. Otherwise, traversing the loop current (where there is rocket fuel) would not be such a big deal.


Uh...what? A very shallow but wide shelf extends from the Keys northward to beyond the Big Bend area; nowhere in this area is the water deeper than 100 meters, and most of it is less than half that. See for yourself.

You may not see much "rocket fuel" in the Gulf...but it's there.
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Quoting Drakoen:
GFS model not doing much with 94L it shows dry mid level conditions prevailing prevent the development of convection.
????? and it has convection to the south
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A speed boat fleeing from a landslide caused by an aftershock. Yingxiu, Sichuan Province, China.
People flee a landslide on a speed boat as a result of aftershocks in Yingxiu, Sichuan Province, China
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Jeez! Lightning just struck about 1 mile away from me. Pouring rain with gusts up to 30mph here. I got some pics before I had to go inside because I was getting soaked.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Jeez! Lightning just struck about 1 mile away from me. Pouring rain with gusts up to 30mph here. I got some pics before I had to go inside because I was getting soaked.
post them to see those pics are always super cool
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1117. Patrap
One can just discern now the Overall Circulation..east of KSC in the Atlantic as the radar reaches way out..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting Patrap:


Actually..the Surface Low is N of the Convective Ball and one can see it on the RGB loop,as the Northerly Shear is keeping it in check for now. But that is going to Lessen the next 24.

Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop




Ok thanks I see now.
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1115. Drakoen
GFS model not doing much with 94L it shows dry mid level conditions prevailing prevent the development of convection.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
Quoting Patrap:
94L Progs and Wu page


No good. Ouch.
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Quoting MrstormX:
21z RUC, +21 hours... it appears 94L splits or am I seeing this wrong.




i see that too
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
Jeez! Lightning just struck about 1 mile away from me. Pouring rain with gusts up to 30mph here. I got some pics before I had to go inside because I was getting soaked.
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1111. Patrap
Gulf of Mexico Imagery
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting Patrap:


Yeas indeed.

He was a Visionary and a Good Man,civic Leader and father.



Yes he was. I remember that day Nov. 1ST. I believe that is how the Saints really got their name, from All Saints Day.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Dr. Master's take on Fay intensifying over land

StSimonsIslanGAGuy, I started this discussion about Fay because I was too lazy to research it, thanks for digging Dr. Masters comment. Patrap is also right that numbers is what count, otherwise you are no better than the crystal ball lady (no disrespect intended, she may turn out to be right after all), so I found the official NHC report for Fay here and if you look at page 8 and check the coordinates you will see than indeed Fay was at it's lowest pressure over land, not far from Lake Okeechobee.
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1108. Patrap
Quoting cybergrump:

Pat right in that ball is where the center will be right?


Actually..the Surface Low is N of the Convective Ball and one can see it on the RGB loop,as the Northerly Shear is keeping it in check for now. But that is going to Lessen the next 24.

Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting Patrap:
94L Progs and Wu page

Dont the computer models have the center further north than it is?
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1106. smuldy
Quoting Seflhurricane:
you are going to get some real good gusts its coming down here in west dade
ya the rain has finally picked up here too though it looks like a small localized cell of intensity here and then more light rain soon unless the cell grows
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1105. Patrap
94L Progs and Wu page
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Quoting Patrap:
Notice the Ball Like Feature in the Dvorak Still this afternoon..




Pat right in that ball is where the center will be right?
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On that image that pat put up, have a look at the deep red cells over Cuba. This thing is blowing up fast, my concern is true. Its feeding off the warm water now that its got a Closed low.
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Quoting Drakoen:
93L has a well-defined low level center. The problem is convection only covers 1/4th of the system.


You think eventually it will become a TC?
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1099. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL STORM DIANMU (T1004)
6:00 AM JST August 9 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Dianmu (990 hPa) located at 24.8N 125.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 29.2N 125.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 32.8N 125.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 36.5N 129.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Quoting Patrap:
The GOM is at Peak TCHP..all the Gulf at 82F plus in at Least the Top 100 ft of the water column.

Thats a Bad thing.

And if a Cyclone forms in the Eastern GOM,..there is a plenty of Fuel to Support it.

To any Cat Size.

Easily.



Is this scenario still supported in the modeling?
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1096. Patrap
Notice the Ball Like Feature in the Dvorak Still this afternoon..



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Quoting extreme236:


And for that reason, that's why we have the Dvorak classification system that the NHC uses.



I concede that the rating of 1.0/1.0 is the only thing holding it back.
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1094. Drakoen
93L has a well-defined low level center. The problem is convection only covers 1/4th of the system.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
Quoting smuldy:
the winds are finally kicking up here bayside on miami beach but the rain is still light
you are going to get some real good gusts its coming down here in west dade
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Quoting NotJFV:

cool pics there!!!

Your name is "NotJFV"? ROFLMAO!!!!
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1091. Patrap
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1090. smuldy
the winds are finally kicking up here bayside on miami beach but the rain is still light
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1089. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting BahaHurican:
I wonder if u guys noticed that areas like the Great Bahama Bank and the continental shelf of FL's Big Bend area are not represented as having TCHP. I believe that is because these areas are so shallow that getting an accurate TCHP reading is like trying to read land. To all intents and purposes, the Everglades would read the same.


That's my point (and Dr. Masters', as well): TCHP maps will by design not show TCHP in shallow areas such as exist in the places you mentioned. In those places, the 26.C thermocline lies below the bottom of the sea for all intents and purposes.

Also: TCHP is derived in part by reading surface anomalies; the warmer the water, the more it expands, so the higher the surface, and vice versa. But Lake Okeechobee, the Everglades, and many parts of the continental shelf are to shallow to exhibit this swelling/shrinking, so monitoring satellites won't correctly interpret the data.

Also 2: the Everglades are very warm and very wet. Combine that with the fact that Florida is both extremely flat and surrounded on three sides by very warm waters, and you'll see why it's completely reasonable that some storms can not just maintain strngth, but grow as they transit Florida's southern tip.
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1087. NotJFV
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I just thought this was so cool, it's like a blanket that is about to go over me.


cool pics there!!!
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Quoting MrstormX:


Wow you live high up there eh? At least you don't have to worry about flooding
32nd floor. I'm going to post more images on my blog...don't want to clutter this one up.
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1084. Patrap
If 94L stays west early..itza good thing.

Less time to organise and develop.

If it dawdles and Dips Sw first.

Well..thats a bad thing Martha Says.

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Miami09 wait till the sun sets. The colors of the sky are going to be awesome.
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1082. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1081. bappit
Quoting BahaHurican:
I wonder if u guys noticed that areas like the Great Bahama Bank and the continental shelf of FL's Big Bend area are not represented as having TCHP. I believe that is because these areas are so shallow that getting an accurate TCHP reading is like trying to read land. To all intents and purposes, the Everglades would read the same.


Nice map of surface temps.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6147
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I just thought this was so cool, it's like a blanket that is about to go over me.



Wow you live high up there eh? At least you don't have to worry about flooding
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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