Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1180 - 1130

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Quoting StormW:


Well actually, he was referring to the models:

There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.
So I get on here today and see a 94L. What do you think about this one Storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Wow, did that cause like a local lake tsunami?

I'm not sure about the possibility of lake tsunamis.
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 578
I would expect the chances of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours increase at 8PM since in reality all 93L needs is an increase of convection to get classified as 05L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1176. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1175. Drakoen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sflawavedude:
Shear (whats new?) will keep 94l in check.


For now, but once 94L gets into the Gulf its a whole new ball game. Low shear there and high SSTs.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23560
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Baha how are the storms out your way?
We had the worst of them overnight, but it's been overcast with occasional light showers all day. Very still. Good weather for staying in bed with a cup of chowder and a good book....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21392
1171. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormGoddess:
A speed boat fleeing from a landslide caused by an aftershock. Yingxiu, Sichuan Province, China.
People flee a landslide on a speed boat as a result of aftershocks in Yingxiu, Sichuan Province, China


Wow, did that cause like a local lake tsunami?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1169. Patrap
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Pat, can you explain why it is that all these storms seem to be moving into the CATL and then making a hard right? What wall are they running into?


Trofs..

they turn the steering from the Sw..

Its these closer borne threats to watch for now..from the Caribbean to the Sw Atlantic to the Gom.

Things will trend toward chaos in the atmosphere Dr. Masters once told me in a conversation,,and given the unexpected nature of the Atmosphere ,and the SST"s potential,,one has to be wary of certain scenarios that in the past,have proven problematic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1168. Drakoen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1167. bappit
Quoting StormGoddess:
A speed boat fleeing from a landslide caused by an aftershock. Yingxiu, Sichuan Province, China.
People flee a landslide on a speed boat as a result of aftershocks in Yingxiu, Sichuan Province, China

W
OW!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shear (whats new?) will keep 94l in check.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hardcore, do you have a map layout such as the Gulf of Mexico Temperatures that you just posted for the entire Caribbean, Gulf, Florida regions?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1164. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:


It is rare that Dr M doesn't include some version of that statement in nearly every entry.
It is also rare when Destin Jeff does not include this in his entry..... :) :)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20481
Quoting HurricaneIsabel:


This season IS dead. nothing will come out of that but a weak tropical storm going to canada


Have anything to back that statement up? How 'bout this sucker?



1.885 billion dollars and 30+ dead aint enough though is it to you? It has to be on pair with 2005 already to be considered active don't it? Got news for you kid, in 2007 we at this moment were at 3-0-0, a season in the end that had 15-6-2 with two Category 5s, a system that went from nothing to a moderate Category 1 hurricane in a matter of hours, and Noel in late October - Early November that killed 163 people. The US was relatively untouched that year, but the Caribbean was ravaged.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23560
Post 1067. Keeper's radar image is so cool. This is why I love weather. Question....what makes the storms pop like that right over land. They pop simultaneously with the entire country of Cuba. Again, so cool to see that. At least to me...lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1161. Drakoen
Only a modest increase in convection would result in the formation of a tropical depression.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Baha how are the storms out your way?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1159. Patrap
Quoting bappit:

Not sure that's true, but regardless the GOM is still weenie compared to the Caribbean.


You havent a clue as to what your saying...obviously.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pat, can you explain why it is that all these storms seem to be moving into the CATL and then making a hard right? What wall are they running into?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Someone made Mother Nature mad:

There goes our dust source....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21392
1155. bappit
Quoting Patrap:
The GOM is at Peak TCHP..all the Gulf at 82F plus in at Least the Top 100 ft of the water column.

Thats a Bad thing.

And if a Cyclone forms in the Eastern GOM,..there is a plenty of Fuel to Support it.

To any Cat Size.

Easily.


Not sure that's true, but regardless the GOM is still weenie compared to the Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Some like it hot



What is this going to do to 94L when it gets into the GOM?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1153. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Someone made Mother Nature mad:



Storm,

The last thing I would do is to put one met vs another however Dr Masters said no develops for next week in his blog above?

Yet I see all kinds of activity comming down across Africa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting truecajun:


yikes!!

Yeah, it's really hard to concentrate to get gas with the employees running for the walk in cooler and the sirens going off and all. lol
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 578
1149. bappit
This is the best image of the GOM bathymetry I could find. You have to squint real hard, but it does give an impression of the overall shape of the ocean floor. (It is better than the one that just uses color.) Yes, the west Florida Shelf is shallow. The area off Lousiana is shallow, too. The question is what really constitutes shallow?

I'd like a map of where there is no cool/cold water to mix with surface waters. The edges of a shallow area could mix horizontally with cooler water brought up from deeper water nearby. If the seafloor rises up over a limited area like at the Flower Gardens, I don't think that matters.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some like it hot

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1101. What I'm watching is the location of the 1016 hPa line on that forecast map. Right now that's suggesting it'll be right in the area of the east coast, which makes me think about where 93L in whatever incarnation will end up.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21392
Link



Heres a link to the article.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1144. Patrap
Anyone that says a Season is Dead on Aug 8th isnt one for Climatology and Seasonal trends.

We enter the most Dangerous time now and thru October..historically.



Bloviating is a art form mastered by the uninformed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormGoddess:

Yeah, I hope so too. That is the worst thing to almost run out of gas when running from something like that. (Just from personal experience stopping for gas during a tornado is really, really not fun.) lol


yikes!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is the station in which I use to see how much rain has fallen, it's a few steps from where I am.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting hydrus:
Wow...Hope there tank is full.

Yeah, I hope so too. That is the worst thing to almost run out of gas when running from something like that. (Just from personal experience stopping for gas during a tornado is really, really not fun.) lol
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 578
so 94 seems to be moving sw? the nogaps is the only model on wu's page that has that motion, but it stops after 12 hours??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Someone made Mother Nature mad:



Yikes is all I have to say, this is for all those who said the season was dead, you angered mother nature.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Good! How about you?

Good! Thanks! :)
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 578
Quoting hydrus:
I hope it wasnt us.

lol
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 578
Quoting BreadandCircuses:


Wow, she actually said that? LOL I don't know what's worse, her or the congressman who thought Guam was going to capsize from too many people living on one side of the island. And these are our elected/ appointed officials?
lol





Its in todays Pensacola News Journal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NotJFV:

WOW WOW WOW..... awesome.. I hope they made it!!

Thanks! :) Yeah, I hope so too. Looks like they probably did. (Just barely).
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 578
1132. hydrus
Quoting StormW:
Someone made Mother Nature mad:

I hope it wasnt us.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20481
Quoting StormW:
Someone made Mother Nature mad:


They seem to derive enjoyment from making her mad. lol Hey there Storm how are you? :)
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 578
Quoting bappit:

Nice map of surface temps.
Hey, I just swiped it from further up the page to show the shallow "bank / shelf" areas where TCHP readings are likely to be less ... useful....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21392

Viewing: 1180 - 1130

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.