Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Its moving south with the shear so its gonna go farther south looks like
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94L should be watched
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Quoting Drakoen:

Images like this look scary..a completely different color because the SST goes over 30C.
so 29.9 and 30.1 are pretty close in temperature but it looks like a big difference.
A couple storms and STT's will be near normal over the Atlantic Basin

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1225. bappit
Some mixed-layer/seasonal thermocline info:

Wind blowing on the ocean stirs the upper layers leading to a thin mixed layer at the sea surface having constant temperature and salinity from the surface down to a depth where the values differ from those at the surface. The magnitude of the difference is arbitrary, but typically the temperature at the bottom of the layer must be no more than 0.02-0.1°C colder than at the surface. Note that the both temperature and salinity must be constant in the mixed layer. We will see later that mean velocity is not constant. The mixed layer is roughly 10-200 m thick over most of the tropical and mid-latitude belts.

The depth and temperature of the mixed layer varies from day to day and from season to season in response to two processes:

1. Heat fluxes through the surface heat and cool the surface waters. Changes in temperature change the density contrast between the mixed layer and deeper waters. The greater the contrast, the more work is needed to mix the layer downward and visa versa.
2. Turbulence in the mixed layer mixes heat downward. The turbulence depends on the wind speed and on the intensity of breaking waves. Turbulence mixes water in the layer, and it mixes the water in the layer with water in the thermocline.

The mid-latitude mixed layer is thinnest in late summer when winds are weak, and sunlight warms the surface layer (Figure 6.7). At times, the heating is so strong, and the winds so weak, that the layer is only a few meters thick. In fall, the first storms of the season mix the heat down into the ocean thickening the mixed layer, but little heat is lost. In winter, heat is lost, and the mixed layer continues to thicken, becoming thickest in late winter. In spring, winds weaken, sunlight increases, and a new mixed layer forms.


The part about late summer, weak winds and shallow mixed layer reminds me of the GOM. What they are saying implies that there is a tendency for shallower mixed-layers where surface heating is the greatest. I suspect that the mixed layer in the GOM is frequently only a few meters thick which would make the shallower depths on the west Fla. shelf irrelevant since it is still more than 30 or so feet deep. 10 meters of really warm water overlying cooler water can be easily mixed by a hurricane.

Now if we knew how they were calculating TCHP (AtmoAggie's pet peeve) ...
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6147
Quoting xcool:
no gw talk


That would be censorship, let's just ask nicely, lol.
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Quoting bappit:

I think you got trolled in responding to that one.


Probably so. But that point needs to be laid out there that not all seasons need to be on the order of 2005 to be active. If 93L and 94L form by the end of this week, the 2010 season will have gone from 3-1-0 to 5-1-0.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
1221. xcool
no gw talk
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1218. xcool



xcool
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1216. Patrap


04 August 10


NOAA: Global Warming "undeniable"


Global warning is "undeniable" says a new report published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which looked at 10 climate indicators and concluded they "all tell the same story."

"People have spent thousands of years building society for one climate and now a new one is being created - one that's warmer and more extreme," the NOAA report states.

The 10 indicators included shrinking glaciers, melting spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, declining sea-ice in the Arctic, sea-surface temperature, higher air temperature over land, air temperature over oceans, humidity and temperature in the troposphere, and ocean heat.

The NOAA report was released during a week when, faced with the specter of a filibuster, U.S. Senate leaders abandoned efforts to pass a comprehensive clean energy-climate bill.

Climate reform legislation did pass the U.S. House of Representatives last summer, against fierce opposition from Big Oil, the coal industry and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

In the Senate, however, it faced opposition from Republicans and Democrats from coal and oiul producing states.

The NOAA report was compiled by investigators from 48 different countries. It noted that each of the preceding three decades was hotter than the decade before.

The 1980's was the hottest decade on record - prompting initial alarm about global warming - only to find temperatures increasing every year during the 1990's. The warming continued into the 21st Century.

Temperatures increased between 2000 and 2009, with the first half of 2010 the warmest on record.

"Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying and heat waves are more common . . . There is now evidence that more than 90 percent of warming over the last 50 years has gone into our oceans," said Deke Arndt, manager of the NOAA Climate Monitoring Branch and co-editor of the new report.



Read the rest of the articles at the source.
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1215. breald
Quoting pilotguy1:


These are the same people that are sure one way or the other about AGW. In other words they are sure but no one is really sure.

"What is dangerous about a man isn't what he doesn't know, it's what he thinks he knows that he doesn't."
Mark Twain


Oh we are still talkking about GW? I would have been back earlier...LOL

Just kidding....I know we have a few invest out there.
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1214. hydrus
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Adrian,

Dont you Agree that 94L Was More of an Event then Bonnie?

Btw.

94L'S Circulation is East of Kennedy space center..drifting South West
Bonnie was worse than Andrew. Didnt you know that? geez..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22322
Quoting StormW:


Not in 24-30 hours. The blues (dark and light) indicate weaker shear speeds. The higher you go on the scale, the higher the shear.



Storm, the lack anti-cyclone in the upper atmosphere....does that limit the potential strength of a hurricane, or just make development harder?
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Quoting StormW:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN AND FRIENDS SYNOPSIS AUGUST 08, 2010 ISSUED 4:00 P.M.
Thank you Sir, I should have gone there before asking. If your landfall prediction holds true, should this develop, that puts it right up my front door....Definitely gonna be watching this one really close right along with you. YIKES!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like WindSAT is gone with the wind too, there have been no reports since yesterday.

Link


Lets just hope its a glitch, not a MMOD hit.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
Good Afternoon/Evening.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting nola70119:


I am not great a reading these but there doesn't seem to be a lot of sheer near 94L.


looks that way to me too, especially once it gets on the west side of the florida peninsula.
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1204. IKE
18Z GFS through 90 hours...Link
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Looks like WindSAT is gone with the wind too, there have been no reports since yesterday.

Link
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1202. Patrap
GOM 84 Hour Wind Forecast Model,NAM
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Those are among the worst type. A landslide falling into any constrained/contained body oif water can make huge waves, such as the 1953 Lituya Bay megatsunami in Alaska, estimated to have been--seriously--1,724 feet high), or--more recently--one in Peru.

Wow! Thank you for the information, that is very interesting.
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1199. hydrus
Big fat T-Wave in the middle of Africa....To bad its not going to stay there..
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1198. Patrap
GOM 84 Hour Wave Forecast (using SWAN)
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Convection slowly getting stronger as noted on AVN satellite imagery.
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1196. bappit
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Have anything to back that statement up? How 'bout this sucker?



1.885 billion dollars and 30+ dead aint enough though is it to you? It has to be on pair with 2005 already to be considered active don't it? Got news for you kid, in 2007 we at this moment were at 3-0-0, a season in the end that had 15-6-2 with two Category 5s, a system that went from nothing to a moderate Category 1 hurricane in a matter of hours, and Noel in late October - Early November that killed 163 people. The US was relatively untouched that year, but the Caribbean was ravaged.

I think you got trolled in responding to that one.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6147
Water temperatures are just one small piece of the puzzle. Many systems fail to develop while sitting over 88 degree water.

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Quoting StormW:




I am not great a reading these but there doesn't seem to be a lot of sheer near 94L.
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Quoting StormGoddess:

I'm not sure about the possibility of lake tsunamis.


Those are among the worst type. A landslide falling into any constrained/contained body oif water can make huge waves, such as the 1953 Lituya Bay megatsunami in Alaska, estimated to have been--seriously--1,724 feet high), or--more recently--one in Peru.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Isn't 93L already @ 70%? I think all NHC is waiting on is that Dvorak #.....


Exactly. Just a small increase in the coverage of the convection would do the trick.
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Quoting StormW:




Favorable shear for most of the MDR. Any african waves that emerge need to be watched.
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Isn't 93L already @ 70%? I think all NHC is waiting on is that Dvorak #.....
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Quoting bappit:

W
OW!

That's what I thought too! :)
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 589
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Pat, can you explain why it is that all these storms seem to be moving into the CATL and then making a hard right? What wall are they running into?


you should check out some of stormw's blogs. he does a real good job explaining it. check at top of page under member blogs then click on him
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Quoting bappit:
This is the best image of the GOM bathymetry I could find. You have to squint real hard, but it does give an impression of the overall shape of the ocean floor. (It is better than the one that just uses color.) Yes, the west Florida Shelf is shallow. The area off Lousiana is shallow, too. The question is what really constitutes shallow?

I'd like a map of where there is no cool/cold water to mix with surface waters. The edges of a shallow area could mix horizontally with cooler water brought up from deeper water nearby. If the seafloor rises up over a limited area like at the Flower Gardens, I don't think that matters.


I suppose deeper cool water could mix with warm water above the shelf, but in the GoM, what mechanism would cause that? There are no currents but the Loop near the northern coast of Cuba; add to that the fact that warm water rises, and there's little doubt that there is super-abundant latent heat in the Gulf, and especially along the northern & eastern shores. The 26.C thermocline is deep where it can be--several hundred feet below the surface in the middle of the Gulf, and all the way to the sea floor along those coasts; TCHP is more than high enough to develop and sustain intense tropical cyclones.

...And, as I've mentioned before, what makes that all the more amazing is that it was so cold the first three months of this year.
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Entire block were i live here in dade is currently without power. Multiple transformers exploded.
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Quoting StormW:


Well actually, he was referring to the models:

There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.
So I get on here today and see a 94L. What do you think about this one Storm?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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