Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1280. hydrus
Quoting stuckinfl:
What the HECK is that yellow circle over my state????
Somebody let there dog out.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21762
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like every invest 93L is destined to become a tropical cyclone. *Taz, this is the cue for the list that shows the invests that were busts and the ones that were not.*



yep this ask me wish one be came what and i yet you no
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:




Just Joking

damn just imagian the blog it would would be like isreal and the middle east
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What the HECK is that yellow circle over my state????
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Quoting NotJFV:

Im not jfv!!!!!!!!!!!!

the name really tells me your jfv it shows me you infact do have something to hid,
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Quoting sammywammybamy:




Just Joking

O.O LOL
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Looks like every invest 93L is destined to become a tropical cyclone. *Taz, this is the cue for the list that shows the invests that were busts and the ones that were not.*
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting NotJFV:

thanks god none are hitting FL..... whew

Thank God for small miracles. roflmao
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 589
new two comes out soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Thank you... A compliment from a Storm Goddess has to be a good omen...By the way please (leave) the hurricanes in the Atlantic this year as we are still cleaning up from previous encounters.

You're welcome. Yes, tis a good omen indeed. As far as the hurricanes, well....I'm doing my best. You know how it is. lol :)
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 589
1269. NotJFV
Quoting sammywammybamy:




Just Joking

thanks god none are hitting FL..... whew
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Quoting sammywammybamy:




Just Joking

Forecast for Dec. 21, 2012! Absolutely lmao. That's hilarious. :)
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 589
1267. hydrus
Quoting StormGoddess:

Lovely leaf. :)
Thank you... A compliment from a Storm Goddess has to be a good omen...By the way please (leave) the hurricanes in the Atlantic this year as we are still cleaning up from previous encounters.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21762
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
All it needs is a good burst of convection, but as soon as that is accomplished 05L should be designated. After that steady intensification should occur with a recurvature taking place in between 55W-60W. It definitely has a chance of becoming a hurricane, however I would like to see it become a tropical storm before speculating.

Hmmm... Wonder if I wake up to TD5...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Sammy, that's scary!
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What do you think of 93L right now?
All it needs is a good burst of convection, but as soon as that is accomplished 05L should be designated. After that steady intensification should occur with a recurvature taking place in between 55W-60W. It definitely has a chance of becoming a hurricane, however I would like to see it become a tropical storm before speculating.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting btwntx08:

it is beginning

sounds ominous....
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 589
Current MJO
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
Quoting hydrus:
I apologize for the sarcastic Bonnie post. I will turn over a new leaf.....

Lovely leaf. :)
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 589
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think 93L will make it to hurricane status. But that is just a rough guess at this point. For me, the count is 4, 3, 1, 0. I always include tropical depressions.

Total depressions: 4
Total storms: 3
Hurricanes: 1
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 0

What do you think of 93L right now?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1253. hydrus
Quoting RitaEvac:
94L should be watched
Definitely.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21762
1250. msphar
11:08 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
I wasn't impressed by the SST around the Eastern end of Puerto Rico when I was there for a couple of weeks last month. I tested the water every day.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
1249. Stormchaser2007
11:08 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
If the real season is going to start, its going to be in a week or so.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
1246. TXCaneCrasher
11:04 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
for invest 94L Wind shear COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS HIGH 20 - 30 knots

but will be more favorable in about 24 hours
Member Since: July 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 186
1242. bappit
11:01 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
Quoting sailingallover:

I can tell you from the jump in and dive down test that right now while SST's are high around St Thomas and PR we dove several sites including once a few miles offshore over last week and the warm water didn't go down more than about 3 meters..
unfortunately i didn't have a Temp gauge but will make sure to have one next time

Yep, the Caribbean is an awesome heat monster. Do you have experience diving in the GOM? First hand accounts like yours are good info.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6096
1241. MiamiHurricanes09
11:01 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It's possible that 2010 goes to 5-2-0 if 93L strengthens into a hurricane.
I think 93L will make it to hurricane status. But that is just a rough guess at this point. For me, the count is 4, 3, 1, 0. I always include tropical depressions.

Total depressions: 4
Total storms: 3
Hurricanes: 1
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 0
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1239. RitaEvac
11:01 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
models on invest tell you the steering pattern, but watch satellite for invests to see where its currently moving.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1237. bappit
10:58 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
Quoting sailingallover:

Images like this look scary..a completely different color because the SST goes over 30C.
so 29.9 and 30.1 are pretty close in temperature but it looks like a big difference.
A couple storms and STT's will be near normal over the Atlantic Basin


I like that 5 C warm anomaly you-know-where as the "cold" PDO sets in--and I think there are some cold anomalies indicated up along the Alaska/Britich Columbia coast.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6096
1235. StormGoddess
10:58 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
Quoting xcool:
no gw talk

:@! j/k lol
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 589
1234. RitaEvac
10:58 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
If a center were to spin up near south florida, then gulf coast is in for a system possibly. Its august now and things are gonna start developing imo
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1233. msphar
10:57 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
Tuning in for another days in our lives episode of the preseason sizzle that turned to fizzle...I see Colin is history. Now what is the hot stuff of the moment.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
1232. sailingallover
10:57 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
Quoting bappit:
Some mixed-layer/seasonal thermocline info:

The mixed layer is roughly 10-200 m thick over most of the tropical and mid-latitude ) ...

I can tell you from the jump in and dive down test that right now while SST's are high around St Thomas and PR we dove several sites including once a few miles offshore over last week and the warm water didn't go down more than about 3 meters..
unfortunately i didn't have a Temp gauge but will make sure to have one next time
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
1231. WeatherNerdPR
10:57 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Probably so. But that point needs to be laid out there that not all seasons need to be on the order of 2005 to be active. If 93L and 94L form by the end of this week, the 2010 season will have gone from 3-1-0 to 5-1-0.

It's possible that 2010 goes to 5-2-0 if 93L strengthens into a hurricane.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1230. RitaEvac
10:57 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
Its moving south with the shear so its gonna go farther south looks like
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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