Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PtownBryan:
Good evening everyone! Wow Code red on the Fl disturbance..70% chance..wow! Maybe we will get a little rain in Houston if it moves further enough to the west.


could this be another Katrina
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HWRF 18z 126 hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1326. hydrus
Quoting hcubed:


If we were to install really thick shag carpeting on the Mexican/US border, and tell those coming across to shuffle their feet before entering the country, think about the electricity we could generate...
Tesla himself would be proud of you.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21401
good evening storm get your battery operated coffee maker yet?
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Quoting hydrus:
G,night...:)

G'night Hydrus. :)
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 589
1321. Ossqss
Remember Ryan who has posted here?

Ryan N. Maue's 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update
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1320. hydrus
Quoting donna1960ruled:
In Colin's wake, sad tales are now coming in from Bermuda. It is reported that 2 hotel guests were somewhat dissapointed with their Cracked Crab appetizers.
Better than cracked windows I guess.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21401
1319. pottery
Quoting StormW:


Hey pottery, good to see you!

You too...
Nice day here, with a trace of rain at my location, 1.3" at the Airport 6 miles north of me.
Max temp 90F.
Visibility at noon, in rain showers, 9999 miles. How about THAT ???!!!
(from the Airport weather site! LOL)
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1318. hcubed
Quoting DestinDome:
We should build giant plugs for all of the volcanic craters, tell China to care about global warming, and construct a giant solar power generator across the U.S. Mexico border.For starters of course!


If we were to install really thick shag carpeting on the Mexican/US border, and tell those coming across to shuffle their feet before entering the country, think about the electricity we could generate...
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1315. hydrus
Quoting pottery:
Greetings, all.
Hi Storm..
Greetings from the plateau Pott...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21401
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Hey Storm. :)
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1313. hydrus
Quoting StormGoddess:
Have a great night everybody! It's been fun. :)
G,night...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21401
Quoting sammywammybamy:




Just Joking
Yah, I saved that 1 too.... think I will use it as my screensaver on my mini... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22291
Hey Storm, hey Pottery. Things are getting a little more interesting.
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While the blog is a little slow, I would like to ask a question. Who do you consider to be the most conservaative NHC meteorologists and who do you consider to take the mosst risks when writing their TWO or other forecasts? In my opinion Avila has the most fun writing the forecasts. He seems to really enjoy the challenge of figuring out the difficult storms.
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1307. hydrus
People in Bermuda watch T.D Colin cruise by...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21401
Good evening everyone! Wow Code red on the Fl disturbance..70% chance..wow! Maybe we will get a little rain in Houston if it moves further enough to the west.
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1302. pottery
Greetings, all.
Hi Storm..
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Hey Senior...
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Quoting troy1993:
I wonder what would the Weather Channel do in a situation that sammy just showed above if 5 hurricanes made landfall in the U.S at the same time

al rooker would shat himself
abrams would quit
and it would be bad
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THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24134
1295. bappit
More interesting stuff:

the ocean continues to respond to the wind forcing after the storm passage, resulting in SST cooling by as much as 5°C in the wake, while the cooling directly below the storm is typically only 1°–2°C (Cione and Uhlhorn
2003).


I read that to mean that once the ocean gets stirred up by tropical cyclone, the currents doing the mixing continue after the storm has departed.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Blog is Slow....

i know hows the weather in boca im 20 mins north of you
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I wonder what would the Weather Channel do in a situation that sammy just showed above if 5 hurricanes made landfall in the U.S at the same time
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Quoting stuckinfl:
A least it's not a UFO...

well idk the storm itself looks like a ufo going through a blender
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AVN satellite imagery shows that some thunderstorms have began to pop atop the circulation of 93L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Have a great night everybody! It's been fun. :)
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 589
A least it's not a UFO...
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1287. hydrus
The MJO is coming fast..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21401
Of course Pasch/Kimberlain (the most conservative) had to write the discussion, no wonder that they left the percentages the same.
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1284. bappit
Interesting article "Application of Oceanic Heat Content Estimation to Operational Forecasting of Recent
Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes". It describes how SHIPS uses OHC data and how that data is gathered.

Figure 2 shows the adjustment to the 72-h SHIPS intensity prediction due to the OHC input. For OHC values less than 60 kJ cm-2 there is a very small reduction in the intensity forecast. For values above 60 kJ cm-2, the OHC adds a positive correction
to the TC intensity forecast, and for values above 100 kJ cm-2, the correction to the SHIPS forecast has been shown to be even more significant. OHC values this high (above 100 kJ cm-2) are typically only found in the Caribbean Sea, the Loop Current and its shed warm eddies in the Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Current, and the Gulf Stream as part of the poleward transport of heat. Thus, although the impact of the OHC on the intensity change of a typical Atlantic TC is small, it may be an important factor in isolated regions. For the 72-h SHIPS forecasts, the correction to the intensity ranges from -2 to +13 kt.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
000
ABNT20 KNHC 082332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. REGENERATION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BUT THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF SAINT
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND ARE EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ABNT20 KNHC 082332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. REGENERATION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BUT THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF SAINT
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND ARE EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1280. hydrus
Quoting stuckinfl:
What the HECK is that yellow circle over my state????
Somebody let there dog out.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21401

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.