Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1380. JLPR2
Quoting weathermancer:


Colored Crayons are dangerous for weather maniacs.


haha! Yeah, I bet a few here have red circles all over their walls. XD
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GFDL keeps it over water longer than most of the other models, which would probably explain why it allows for rapid intensification.
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1377. xcool
delete
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
GFDL for 94L is nuts


HOUR:108.0 LONG: -93.27 LAT: 28.77 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):100.28
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -94.06 LAT: 29.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.18
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -95.01 LAT: 29.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.89
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -96.16 LAT: 29.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.51
The 18z run was nuts too.

120 hours:
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Does anyone live near where Dr. Steve Lyons works now? If they do, have they seen his take on the tropics recently?

I really miss his tropical updates on TWC. He always gave very in depth tropical updates.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Messed up graphic which will bring some panic and drama here. XD

Hello everyone! :D!


Colored Crayons are dangerous for weather maniacs.
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1372. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
1371. Ossqss
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Theyed Clone Jim Cantore and send him to 5 diffrent places.


We need OZ back !
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Quoting JLPR2:


Messed up graphic which will bring some panic and drama here. XD

Hello everyone! :D!

Hey!
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dolphingalrules 11:54 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
Quoting PtownBryan:
Good evening everyone! Wow Code red on the Fl disturbance..70% chance..wow! Maybe we will get a little rain in Houston if it moves further enough to the west.


could this be another Katrina

Oh I don't think so at all. Crazier things have happened. But I am not the right person to ask, Storm knows how to read all of the steering maps, shear information, etc.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Avila is pretty conservative.
Beven is in the middle, but not too conservative.
Brennan is usually matched up with someone, and not conservative.
Brown is not conservative.
Pasch is conservative, usually matched up with Kimberlain.
Berg is usually matched up with someone, he is conservative.
Kimberlain is conservative.
Cangialosi became a specialist last year and is matched up with someone, he is not conservative.

Just my take on it.


thank you
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
GFDL for 94L is nuts


HOUR:108.0 LONG: -93.27 LAT: 28.77 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):100.28
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -94.06 LAT: 29.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.18
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -95.01 LAT: 29.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.89
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -96.16 LAT: 29.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.51


I sure the heck hope they're nuts! Wow!
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I was wondering about that 70%!!!
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Quoting StormW:


You're showing some scary graphics this evening.
Looks like the season has shown up.
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Quoting heretolearninPR:
While the blog is a little slow, I would like to ask a question. Who do you consider to be the most conservaative NHC meteorologists and who do you consider to take the mosst risks when writing their TWO or other forecasts? In my opinion Avila has the most fun writing the forecasts. He seems to really enjoy the challenge of figuring out the difficult storms.
Avila is pretty conservative.
Beven is in the middle, but not too conservative.
Brennan is usually matched up with someone, and not conservative.
Brown is not conservative.
Pasch is conservative, usually matched up with Kimberlain.
Berg is usually matched up with someone, he is conservative.
Kimberlain is conservative.
Cangialosi became a specialist last year and is matched up with someone, he is not conservative.

Just my take on it. Some people are not always matched, some are, etc... I just put it in a random format.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
GFDL for 94L is nuts


HOUR:108.0 LONG: -93.27 LAT: 28.77 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):100.28
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -94.06 LAT: 29.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.18
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -95.01 LAT: 29.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.89
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -96.16 LAT: 29.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.51
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Quoting StormW:


With the MJO coming back with a vengence, it's just a matter of time till one of those bad boys really pops!
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1360. Drakoen
TMI pass 93L

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
1359. Patrap
Cap'n were gonna collide ..



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Whats up with NHC site it now says 70% for low near FLA and near 0% for L93?????Lol
the circle drawer had too many mojitos for dinner
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
94L still at 10% and 93L still at 70%. Not reversed.


It was but it just got fixed.
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1355. bappit
Probably the answer to AtmoAggie's question about the change in TOHC calculations:

Given the large values of OHC in these regimes, in situ and satellite-derived estimates differ by 10%%u201315% with the in situ values being larger. However, given a threshold of 60 kJ cm-2, as is used in SHIPS, a 10%%u201315% error equates to an OHC underestimation in the NW Caribbean Sea of 15%u201323 kJ cm-2 using a seasonal climatology. We are also exploring monthly climatologies to assess whether these OHC differences will decrease.

Atmo has repeatedly raised the point that comparisons of this year's Caribbean TOHC maps to previous year's may be invalid. I am guessing he is correct. The calculations are done by converting altimetry and SST data to estimates of the depth of the 26 C isotherm and the average temperature of the water above the 26 C isotherm. This has to be done by making assumptions. What they do is take the climatological temperature profile and adjust it on the basis of what the altimetry and SST data show. Their calculations tend to have a systematic error on the low side.

They note that their calculated values could be improved by going to monthly climatological data instead of season-long data. My guess is that is what they did and that their data is now more accurate. Hence, as Atmo has often suggested, comparisons of this year's TOHC to previous year's are invalid.

Edit: read that after I posted, should say, "Possibly the answer ..." or maybe "Perhaps the answer ...". Maybe "In your spare time, would you consider that ..."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6022
1354. will45
Quoting CybrTeddy:
94L still at 10% and 93L still at 70%. Not reversed.


it was reversed earlier
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1351. Gearsts
93L has to be a TD for sure
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94L still at 10% and 93L still at 70%. Not reversed.
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Quoting psuweathernewbie:
Got to watch a baseball game, be back tomorrow morning, hopefully by then the AOI in the Caribbean develops enough to be an invest.
Hi Im new,which AOI?
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Whats up with NHC site it now says 70% for low near FLA and near 0% for L93?????Lol


Guess that answers my question in 1308. Pasch and Kimberlain are ready to take risks lol
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1346. Ossqss
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I never expected a hyperactive hurricane season this year, ossqss. 13-7-3 was my forecast in March, and see no reason yet to change it.


Well, we share that for sure Simon :) I was at 13-8-3. Who ever gets closest owes a beverage of choice?
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Quoting PtownBryan:
Good evening everyone! Wow Code red on the Fl disturbance..70% chance..wow! Maybe we will get a little rain in Houston if it moves further enough to the west.


could this be another katrina
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1344. will45
Quoting StormW:




they just fixed it
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Got to watch a baseball game, be back tomorrow morning, hopefully by then the AOI in the Caribbean develops enough to be an invest.
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Power back...Couple of 45+mph gusts will do that for you.
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1339. JLPR2
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Whats up with NHC site it now says 70% for low near FLA and near 0% for L93?????Lol


Messed up graphic which will bring some panic and drama here. XD

Hello everyone! :D!
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All good now.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1337. hydrus
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Someone screwed up the TWO map. It showed a red circle over Fla. and a yellow circle over 93L.
There crayons melted when the power went out.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21195
1336. will45
and the yellow circle says Colin lol
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Whats up with NHC site it now says 70% for low near FLA and near 0% for L93?????Lol
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1334. will45
looks like they have the circles screwed up on NHC home page. Is anyone else seeing this?
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Someone screwed up the TWO map. It showed a red circle over Fla. and a yellow circle over 93L.
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The AOI in the Caribbean Sea is developing centralized convection over the broad low level circulation.
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Quoting PtownBryan:
Good evening everyone! Wow Code red on the Fl disturbance..70% chance..wow! Maybe we will get a little rain in Houston if it moves further enough to the west.


could this be another Katrina
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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