Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Storm, how often do lows that form where 94L is go in that direction vs. up the coast along the Pressolinas?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Couillon:
I must be inside the grey lines.Probly talking to myself.The psunewbie said carrib storm,but I dont see nothing?Maybe the EPAC.


ROFL - depends on how the view is set whether or not you're in the gray lines. You show up just fine on show all. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1428. Ossqss
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Ossqss, fair enough. If I win, you buy me a tumbler of Macallan 30 :)


LOL, maybe a Q-tip of it. That is about what I could afford. Yikes!
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
1426. Greyelf
Quoting truecajun:
oh my, greyelf, your avatar is freaking me out. LOL!


Hehe...I thought it appropriate for this blog. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what did oz do to get a permaban?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The 18z run was nuts too.

120 hours:


Woah. Just seeing this..

I know there is a lot of discussion and opinions on which models are best. That said, in your opinion, is this model typically one of the more reliable ones?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oh my, greyelf, your avatar is freaking me out. LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I must be inside the grey lines.Probly talking to myself.The psunewbie said carrib storm,but I dont see nothing?Maybe the EPAC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


It would certainly be possible if that track panned out. A more eastward track that the HWRF shows would probably keep the intensity below major hurricane status.
Agreed.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1419. bappit
Quoting MississippiWx:
This is brutal...


But not the whole story.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6021
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Rain is Gone for Now...

we need it so bad in flagler county
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


Well Oz could probably come back under a different name, but he chooses not to violate that rule I'd assume.


i wish he'd come back. i liked his energy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


Well Oz could probably come back under a different name, but he chooses not to violate that rule I'd assume.


Oz could come back with a different handle, but I'll be he would not choose to do so.
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1415. will45
Quoting Greyelf:


Funny how they can manage to permaban Oz, but somehow can't do the same thing to he who must not be named.


Oz honors the ban the otherone doesnt
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1414. Gearsts
LinkWOW 2k missing and billions in damage!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Why Did they BAN him????


IDK??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Greyelf:


Funny how they can manage to permaban Oz, but somehow can't do the same thing to he who must not be named.


Well Oz could probably come back under a different name, but he chooses not to violate that rule I'd assume.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting JLPR2:


haha! Yeah, I bet a few here have red circles all over their walls. XD

LOL LOL LOL!!!!
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Quoting Patrap:


you can see the center still
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1408. Greyelf
Quoting Ossqss:


That would be CycloneOZ, the man in the storm who was a regular here and shared the experiences with the blog, but not here due to a ban :(


Funny how they can manage to permaban Oz, but somehow can't do the same thing to he who must not be named.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Yup, that's the thing about home grown development. They can often times rapidly intensify and have a high chance of affecting land.

Looks like the La Nina 500mb ridge will hold allowing the system to move west in the GOM.


Yep I can think of a couple.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1406. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
1403. Drakoen
Quoting extreme236:
GFDL keeps it over water longer than most of the other models, which would probably explain why it allows for rapid intensification.


Yup, that's the thing about home grown development. They can often times rapidly intensify and have a high chance of affecting land.

Looks like the La Nina 500mb ridge will hold allowing the system to move west in the GOM.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
93L should be a tropical depression by tomorrow evening.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The 18z run was nuts too.

120 hours:


Wow its says a cat 3 storm with winds of 118mph when it is just an invest that is crazy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1400. Patrap
Itsa Hotsui..
i wish we woul get some boomers here.

I can see um,..but they East of me.

As usual the last 2 weeks.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
1399. bappit
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


oil is washing up daily in Hancock County, Mississippi, in the marshland and on the beach, as well as oil still washing up on the barrier islands, Ship Island and Horn Island.

Go to www.sunherald.com or www.wlox.com and read and see video

He's wrong!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6021
Quoting Ossqss:


That would be CycloneOZ, the man in the storm who was a regular here and shared the experiences with the blog, but not here due to a ban :(


they banned him forever? i thought the bans were only 48 hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Avila is pretty conservative.
Beven is in the middle, but not too conservative.
Brennan is usually matched up with someone, and not conservative.
Brown is not conservative.
Pasch is conservative, usually matched up with Kimberlain.
Berg is usually matched up with someone, he is conservative.
Kimberlain is conservative.
Cangialosi became a specialist last year and is matched up with someone, he is not conservative.

Just my take on it. Some people are not always matched, some are, etc... I just put it in a random format.
You forgot Stacey. I'd put Stewart in the less conservative column.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22087
1395. pottery
Quoting Patrap:


I wish it do something here Pottery.

Were Baked and done,

Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 9 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
90.4 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 64%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 1.7 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 7.6 mph
Pressure: 29.94 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 103 °F

Hmmm.
Mostly cloudy.
Humidity 64%
H.I. 103.
Better you than me......

Hang in there. It's a commin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Yes ma'am! Just beginning.


Big sigh. :( At least I know I'll be well warned. Thank you. :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If the waters are 31C+ and shear is favorable, that scenario is very possible.


It would certainly be possible if that track panned out. A more eastward track that the HWRF shows would probably keep the intensity below major hurricane status.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1391. bappit
Quoting Patrap:
Cap'n were gonna collide ..




Kablooieeeeeeee!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6021
1389. Ossqss
Quoting FLdewey:

That's a lot of little leagues without protection. :-(


That would be CycloneOZ, the man in the storm who was a regular here and shared the experiences with the blog, but not here due to a ban :(
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
This is brutal...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1387. Patrap
Quoting pottery:

LOL, Heads Down, Pat!
And you better put on a hard hat too.........


I wish it do something here Pottery.

Were Baked and done,

Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 9 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
90.4 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 64%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 1.7 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 7.6 mph
Pressure: 29.94 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 103 °F
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The 18z run was nuts too.

120 hours:


What run is it now? And I hate the outcome they show.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
GFDL keeps it over water longer than most of the other models, which would probably explain why it allows for rapid intensification.
If the waters are 31C+ and shear is favorable, that scenario is very possible.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1384. Patrap
Quoting AllStar17:
Does anyone live near where Dr. Steve Lyons works now? If they do, have they seen his take on the tropics recently?

I really miss his tropical updates on TWC. He always gave very in depth tropical updates.


Steve Lyons has a Facebook page
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
1383. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
Cap'n were gonna collide ..




LOL, Heads Down, Pat!
And you better put on a hard hat too.........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
Does anyone live near where Dr. Steve Lyons works now? If they do, have they seen his take on the tropics recently?

I really miss his tropical updates on TWC. He always gave very in depth tropical updates.


he was good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1380. JLPR2
Quoting weathermancer:


Colored Crayons are dangerous for weather maniacs.


haha! Yeah, I bet a few here have red circles all over their walls. XD
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.