Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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18z GFS suggests that 94L be in a favorable environment for cyclogenesis in 36 hours, at that time it should be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
WOW GFDL has it slamming Brazoria County. Gotta keep a close eye on this invest.
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1477. pottery
Quoting truecajun:


i know this is horrible to all of those scotch lovers, but my dad gave my brother and i a glass of macallan while we sat around a homemade bonfire. when he left, we both threw it in teh fire.

Do 40 years of community service, while standing in an ants nest.
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!
Quoting Patrap:
Lotsa Pre-mies tonight seems.


Yes, but we DO have the first PRE - season football game, which means that it DAT time of year again - LOL
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1474. WxLogic
Good Evening...
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Quoting Greyelf:

Yes, that's scotch. My hubby likes Macallan as well. I bought him a bottle of 18 for our wedding anniversary a couple of years ago. He just finished it recently...lol..


i know this is horrible to all of those scotch lovers, but my dad gave me and my brother a glass of macallan while we sat around a homemade bonfire. when he left, we both threw it in teh fire.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
Whats up with the GFDL? It has 94L becoming a major hurricane.
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1468. pottery
Quoting aquak9:


did I miss 95L?

You think we can petition the NHC to review/change the Invest Number System, to something that makes sense?
No-one can possibly keep track of these repetitive numbers.
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1465. scott39
Quoting aquak9:


did I miss 95L?
nope- doesnt exist
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1464. Patrap
Lotsa Pre-mies tonight seems.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
1463. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
1462. aquak9
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Pre 96L off Africa ronight looks gorgeous, absolutely gourgeous. Who's not in?


did I miss 95L?
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1461. scott39
Quoting pilotguy1:


I know I am downcasting but what makes anyone think this thing is going to survive crossing the peninsula?
Valid- IF--- 94L gets in the GOM, what will dictate the sreering?
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TAFB also at T1.0.

TAFB, JL, I, 5, 1010 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 1.0 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Patrap:
94L Computer Model Forecasts


the nogaps initializes most correctly, then drops it??
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1458. pottery
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Pre 96L off Africa ronight looks gorgeous, absolutely gourgeous. Who's not in?

Enough to make a grown man shudder.......
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1456. Greyelf
Quoting truecajun:


is that scotch. my dad drinks that on the rocks. macallhan i think. it's terrible nasty. i feel as it it will kill me after one sip.

Yes, that's scotch. My hubby likes Macallan as well. I bought him a bottle of 18 for our wedding anniversary a couple of years ago. He just finished it recently...lol..
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Thanks CoopsWife,Ima try that
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Hmmm.... 7 days from now is the 15th Aug, right?

It's going to be really interesting here by then.

1)the Sahel is getting soaked, cutting down prohibitive dust
2) ULLs don't seem to be "sticking" in the locations where they have been doing the worst damage anymore
3) wave volume seems to be picking up again
4) SSTs are looking more and more productive across the basin
5) AB high is retreating somewhat from the tropics along the MDR....

We shall see what we shall see, but I have a feeling pple won't be so bored next Sunday night....
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SAB remains at T1.0...looks like no classification today.

08/2345 UTC 23.0N 46.3W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1452. xcool
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AL, 94, 2010080900, , BEST, 0, 295N, 795W, 25, 1011, DB,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1450. Patrap
94L Computer Model Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
Quoting StormW:


Haven't really researched it. Bastardi mentioned something about this type today. He referenced Abby, 1964, Alicia 1983, and Edouard 2008.


Cool, was looking more anectdotally than specific %'s. Just seemed to be an odd path. I believe it was Cristobal just in 2008 or 2007 that went from there along the coast here.
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1447. pottery
MAN!!
You have to feel sorry for those folks in Pakistan and China.
I cannot help feeling that we will see more of this type of disaster in the months/years to come.
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AL, 93, 2010080900, , BEST, 0, 231N, 462W, 25, 1011, DB,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1445. scott39
Whats the steering going to be for 94L once in the GOM?
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1444. xcool



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Quoting StormW:


Thought it was a little hot here in the Mississippi Gulf Coast waters.. Just a little, ya think?
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12z UKMET 48 hours.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
94L? Hi everyone.
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Another impressive wave emerging off Africa.
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1437. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
Quoting Ossqss:


LOL, maybe a Q-tip of it. That is about what I could afford. Yikes!


is that scotch. my dad drinks that on the rocks. macallhan i think. it's terrible nasty. i feel as it it will kill me after one sip.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
Interesting - will watch - thx!
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Quoting StormW:




looks like oxblood out there
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1432. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
Quoting AustinTXWeather:


Woah. Just seeing this..

I know there is a lot of discussion and opinions on which models are best. That said, in your opinion, is this model typically one of the more reliable ones?
It could be depending on the situation. If 94L would do a track similar to what the GFDL is showing, then intensification like that is certainly possible.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Storm, how often do lows that form where 94L is go in that direction vs. up the coast along the Pressolinas?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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