Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1530. pcola57
Whatcha' think bout tropic chat Pat... 'gators might get 'em...ya think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wayne0224:
lots of rain with 94l today in port charlotte 3.81 thus far


Same here on the Cape. It just keeps coming.
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
Quoting FLdewey:


Look down.

The link to them is right above where you type to post.

It's not worth the trip... it's mostly the kids that were banned on this blog using curse words to be cool.
Curse words are not cool and you do not have to be very intelligent to use them.
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Quoting CoopsWife:


On the left side of the page - click chat, choose tropics. But only if you have plenty of mental disinfectant - sometimes just childish, sometimes fairly nasty in there.


LOL! so they don't have an administrative babysitter in there? they can just say whatever their vulgar little minds want?
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
Quoting Greyelf:

Well, I can tell ya, my husband would love to check out wherever it is that Macallan is made. If you happen to get out that way, I'd love to hear about it.


Will be going the smallest distillery, Eradour, in Pitlochry on Tues., it's close to our hotel - LOL! Should be fun.

I sure hope that the upper air conditions do not become too favorable for 94l in the gulf, there is some nasty fuel out there!
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Quoting 7544:
looks like 94l just fizzle out the dry air took it out next


94L was never expected to develop until it reached the GOMEX, hence the 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours.
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Quoting truecajun:


ive been blogging here for 4 years and i've heard people say "go to tropics chat" i've never gone. i don't know where it is. i'm serious


On the left side of the page - click chat, choose tropics. But only if you have plenty of mental disinfectant - sometimes just childish, sometimes fairly nasty in there.
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Quoting truecajun:


ive been blogging here for 4 years and i've heard people say "go to tropics chat" i've never gone. i don't know where it is. i'm serious


Its under the "New Comment" Title. But I advise not to go there at the moment, alot of immature vulgarity.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:



How Are you Baha
Hey sammy...

this is how I am.

Current Conditions


Nassau, BS (Airport)
Updated: 9:00 PM EDT on August 08, 2010
79 °F / 26 °C
Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 79 °F / 26 °C
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.98 in / 1015 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 9999.0 miles / 16088.4 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1800 ft / 548 m
Mostly Cloudy 2000 ft / 609 m
Overcast 8000 ft / 2438 m
(Above Ground Level)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


WOW! It's like Kindergarten


ive been blogging here for 4 years and i've heard people say "go to tropics chat" i've never gone. i don't know where it is. i'm serious
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1517. pottery
That wave just coming off Africa, and the pretty one behind it.....
They both need to thread their way between some dry air North and South of them to at least 40W, before either can hope to maintain real convection IMO.
Going to be touch and go, if the dry air remains where it is.
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Pre-Mies,I always love your posts PatTrap.Ive been searching USGS trying to find river flow into the gulf.MS river was near flood stage in july and that usually means some cool TCHP in the gulf jmo.
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Nice little area of convection over low level circulation on 93L

Link
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Quoting InTheCone:


I am leaving for SCotland in the morning and do intend to sample some of the wares. I don't like going this late in the season, but they have the international festival in Edinburgh at this time of year and I am hoping the tropics will stay away for 1 more week!


that will be a good time
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1511. Greyelf
Quoting InTheCone:


I am leaving for SCotland in the morning and do intend to sample some of the wares. I don't like going this late in the season, but they have the international festival in Edinburgh at this time of year and I am hoping the tropics will stay away for 1 more week!

Well, I can tell ya, my husband would love to check out wherever it is that Macallan is made. If you happen to get out that way, I'd love to hear about it.
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1509. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL STORM DIANMU (T1004)
9:00 AM JST August 9 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In East China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Dianmu (990 hPa) located at 25.6N 125.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
120 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 29.8N 125.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 33.2N 125.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 36.8N 130.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Quoting hydrus:
Scotch is one of those spirits were usually either you like it or you dont.


I don't really find that true. I can't drink scotch except Johnny Walker Black/Blue (the expensive stuff) but personally I perfer Jack and Coke.
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Quoting 7544:
looks like 94l just fizzle out the dry air took it out next


very impatient
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting pilotguy1:


Big if the way things have been going. This season is a interesting study so far.


i feel like this season has been jerking us around. we don't know whether we're comin' or goin'
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1505. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Quoting Greyelf:


Don't feel bad. I don't like scotch either. It's one of those acquired tastes. I never took one drink of that bottle of 18. I figured there was no point wasting such expensive stuff on my palate that wouldn't appreciate it.


I am leaving for SCotland in the morning and do intend to sample some of the wares. I don't like going this late in the season, but they have the international festival in Edinburgh at this time of year and I am hoping the tropics will stay away for 1 more week!
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Quoting 7544:
looks like 94l just fizzle out the dry air took it out next


Um, no...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
lots of rain with 94l today in port charlotte 3.81 thus far
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Quoting pottery:

LOL. No problem. Just kidding you.
Never did take to Scotch.


yeah i know. i'd never throw champagne in a fire. lol
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1499. hydrus
Quoting truecajun:


i know this is horrible to all of those scotch lovers, but my dad gave me and my brother a glass of macallan while we sat around a homemade bonfire. when he left, we both threw it in teh fire.
Scotch is one of those spirits were usually either you like it or you dont.
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Quoting StormW:




Good night all!


Night Storm. No shear in GOM on that chart. :(
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1497. 7544
looks like 94l just fizzle out the dry air took it out next
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
1496. pottery
Quoting truecajun:


we didn't know it was that special. either way, i couldn't drink it.

LOL. No problem. Just kidding you.
Never did take to Scotch.
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Quoting extreme236:


As are the conditions in much of the MDR. Could be a very interesting setup for this week.
Indeed. Any tropical wave will have a favorable upper level environment to work with. If dry air dies down I would not be surprised to see more than 3 cyclones between today and Saturday.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting caneswatch:
I invite you all to go see what's going on in the Tropics Chat and look at the waste in there. You'll be stunned.


where and what is the tropics chat?
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1491. Bonz
Quoting StormW:


Yes ma'am! Just beginning.


If it could hold off a week or so, that will be enough time for our generator to come back from the shop!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z GFS suggests that 94L be in a favorable environment for cyclogenesis in 36 hours, at that time it should be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.



As are the conditions in much of the MDR. Could be a very interesting setup for this week.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1489. aquak9
awww man...I hate it when folks call things before they're designated. Whether it's a TD or TS or an invest...

laters.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
Quoting StormW:




Good night all!
Good night Storm!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting pottery:

Do 40 years of community service, while standing in an ants nest.


we didn't know it was that special. either way, i couldn't drink it.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
I invite you all to go see what's going on in the Tropics Chat and look at the waste in there. You'll be stunned.
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1485. Ossqss
Interesting and will change. Click to enlarge and extend the run.

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HWRF seems more probable but you never know with mother nature.
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1482. scott39
Quoting InTheCone:


Yes, but we DO have the first PRE - saeson football game, which means that it DAT time of year again - LOL!
Thanks for the reminder!LOL
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1481. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
18z GFS suggests that 94L be in a favorable environment for cyclogenesis in 36 hours, at that time it should be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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