Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:
The SSTs are 30C+ from the Western GOM all the way to 30N and 70W in the Atlantic. Once you go south of the big islands, it changes to *only* 29C in the Central Caribbean, but back up to 30C+ around the island chain. In the Central Gulf to Northern Gulf and around the Bahamas, SSTs are maxing out the scale.


... and then there is this to ponder. August 8th. Not much in the NE GOM.


Separately, there is some decent loop eddy in the Eastern GOM, which may enhance development of anything spinning there depending where it meanders.

Loop Current Eddy 144hr Forecast Animation
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thats the Upper low dude
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2427. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
2425. FLHL2
according to the national hurricane center....the center of circulation for 94l as of three hours ago is as follows....

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC
NEAR 30N80W.


Pressure in Highlands county currently @ 29.88
I will monitor this for any change and report back.
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Yes there indeed are two separate spins according to RUC surface analysis.


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2423. Drakoen
Surface observations support a broad surface circulation west of Naples:

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2422. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FL TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WILL DRIFT SW AS LOW PRES CURRENTLY ALONG FLORIDA NE
COAST MOVES SW ACROSS N FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT. LOW PRES WILL BE NEAR 29N86W TUE...AND INLAND LOUISIANA
THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 26N.
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Cyclogenisis looks to be forming from looking at visible. Definitely something going on out there
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Both ULLs associated with 94L seem to be lifting up and out of the way.

There is the dry air that's following 94L as it dives southwest through the straits.

Favorable conditions ahead? More time over water due to the 25N location at this time?

WTH is this thing going to do?
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Geez, it's late. I gotta head out. See u guys later, expecially if we get TD 5 today. That 93L has the potential to do some damage if we get a harder AB high - it's one to keep an eye on....
Later all.
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Quoting Drakoen:
GOES Satellite Imagery of 94L shows easterlies streaming across central Florida and then westerlies south of the system if you look on the bottom left portion of the imagery and monitor the low level flow. Cyclonic turning going on with 94L.


Sorry Drak but, i gotta disagree with you.....speed that loop up fast......clearly shows 2 seperate spins with 1 one each side of Florida.
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2417. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Wouldn't be surprised to see NHC raise 94L's chances to 30% at 2 with the nice wind shifts showing up on Satellite and surface obs.
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cant make out the wind barbs pat
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Is 9L in the gulf yet or still over land, I am confused.
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2412. Ossqss
From 7am, not brand new

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2411. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Wow I'm sorry I completely meant 94L still has a ways to go. Bad typo.
Lol, no worries.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
The developing center is 100 miles West of Marco Island Florida..drifting SSW..should start a NW movement tonight into Tuesday.

What peeps see over florida is the base of the mid-upper level trough that extends down to the FL straits and then NE thru the bahamas.
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2407. bjdsrq
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Unlike Bonnie, GFS is predicting shear to be very favorable for most of the time. ULL should not be a issue.


But for now, the wedge of dry air *will* be an issue...
Link
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
93L is pretty much set to be called a tropical depression. The circulation is closed and well-defined and is under convection. You can tell looking at satellite that it has begun to wrap around. The only problem it has is the satellite agencies giving it T-numbers below 2.0.
Wow I'm sorry I completely meant 94L still has a ways to go. Bad typo.
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Quoting Drakoen:
GOES Satellite Imagery of 94L shows easterlies streaming across central Florida and then westerlies south of the system if you look on the bottom left portion of the imagery and monitor the low level flow. Cyclonic turning going on with 94L.


looks like its trying
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I got the impression that

LLC over GOM SW of Naples area

ULL over NW Bahamas.

So what's w/ the two centres now?
The surface obs StormW posted support a developing circulation near the Naples area. This is the area to watch. The convection movement over the Bahamas is associated with the ULL and that's not where development will occur.
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Drop the L straight south on the 25 degree line

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Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like we currently have one very large Circulation with 94L and two more concentrated smaller ones on each side of Florida.
Looks like that to me too....
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I'm pretty sure he was describing 93L and not 94L. 93L still has a ways to go, I know, but conditions will start to become favorable.
93L is pretty much set to be called a tropical depression. The circulation is closed and well-defined and is under convection. You can tell looking at satellite that it has begun to wrap around. The only problem it has is the satellite agencies giving it T-numbers below 2.0. Conditions are also pretty favorable for development since it just developed an anticyclone.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Image not hotlinking.


You just need to remove the "s" from https://etc

The BAMs are liking a drop to the south, which would mean more time over loop current eddies.

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2398. beell
94L is pretty typical of a true trough split. Does the energy get kicked west into the GOM from the base of the splitting trough or does it run up the surface boundary to the NE on the Atlantic side? Or both?

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Quoting CosmicEvents:
We have a broad area of low pressure roughly from offshore Vero to Sebring and down towards the SE tip of the state with no defined central LLC. Sweet jeebus, in Florida they are smack dab in the middle of cyclogenisis!


In East Central Florida it's 110% humidity and dead calm. UGH.
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I got the impression that

LLC over GOM SW of Naples area

ULL over NW Bahamas.

So what's w/ the two centres now?
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Not even close to becoming a TD yet IMO! No Worries....just an afternoon rain maker for Florida.
I'm pretty sure he was describing 93L and not 94L. 94L still has a ways to go, I know, but conditions will start to become favorable.
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2394. Drakoen
GOES Satellite Imagery of 94L shows easterlies streaming across central Florida and then westerlies south of the system if you look on the bottom left portion of the imagery and monitor the low level flow. Cyclonic turning going on with 94L.
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2393. smuldy
Quoting BahaHurican:
2332. smuldy 10:25 AM EDT on August 09, 2010

Hey, dude, couple words of advice ....

1) get some sleep! the a.m. crowd is usually the SOBER bunch.... lol

2) really, really leave the politics alone 2 the best of ur ability, especially during the season. [off season things are a bit more relaxed, but still.]

3) Welcome 2 the blog. If u are situated were u say u r and intend to stick around the area for a lighter storm, u should be getting photos and posting to wunderground.... that kinda stuff is cool and on topic, also.... lol

Have a good one!
lol thanks; been here lurking a bit and commented occasionally but i generally try to refrain but ya i will do my best with pics if anything happens though im limited to a 1.8mp cam at the moment; anyway good advice i normally adhere to and again sorry to all for posting while impared in the land of 5am last call tonight lol; and any info on if im just endlessly uploading a profile pic for no reason would be appreciated-thanks in advance
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Quoting mfaria101:

Oh. My. God.
Turns out the ellipsis left out the rest of the quote, which shows the OPPOSITE of what the quote currently says.....
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Why do you say this?


Not even close to becoming a TD yet IMO! No Worries....just an afternoon rain maker for Florida.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Unlike Bonnie, GFS is predicting shear to be very favorable for most of the time. ULL should not be a issue.
Favorable upper level conditions in just 21 hours.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2363. Thank You and keep up the good work!
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Quoting StormChaser81:
Who said the Bermuda triangle was over water...

Lol
I thought that was pretty funny when I saw that when they released it earlier.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Was there a renumber?


Not yet.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11211
We have a broad area of low pressure roughly from offshore Vero to Sebring and down towards the SE tip of the state with no defined central LLC. Sweet jeebus, in Florida they are smack dab in the middle of cyclogenisis!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Don't get to panic mode yet over invest 94L....we have 2 ULL near 94L...development if any will be very very slow.





Unlike Bonnie, GFS is predicting shear to be very favorable for most of the time. ULL should not be a issue.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
Quoting MahFL:
Hispaniola blob has nice outflow.


Yes it does have good ventilation. Still remains disorganized with weakening convection, although expected given that it is still developing.
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Looking at the weathertap radar loop, i would agree with Pat that one possible COC is spining between Kissimmee and Tampa right now drifting slightly to the SW towards Tampa Bay at the moment.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Look for TD05 shortly
Why do you say this?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.