Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting truecajun:


probably a technologically transmitted disease


LOL
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Quoting truecajun:


i'm not too familiar with. that near opelousas?
6mi west
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Quoting Patrap:
He Lived a Wunderful life Dave Dixon.

Sorry 'bout that Pat.
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Link

ummmm....
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Good Grief. Dysfunctional family evening.
Thought I'd done everything right and it still went wrong.
In the meantime, have missed all of the tropical weather chats. And tomorrow is Monday.
Anybody have interesting news?
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Quoting 850Realtor:
When I try to go into tropics chat it always says:

Connection failed! Maybe your network can't access the server, or the server is under maintenance, please try again later!

Anyone know why?


probably a technologically transmitted disease
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Quoting Couillon:
Bayou boys gumbo zydeco,I am a lil crazy in lawtell


i'm not too familiar with. that near opelousas?
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the chats r usually better in Sept/Oct when pple are really talking about wx....
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1571. Patrap


TRMM

37 GHz Radiance
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
1570. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Patrap:


thanks. it's still there...
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Quoting truecajun:



couillon, where are you? that's a good ol' cajun word. my husband gets so mad when i say "you big couillon" to the kids because i'm calling them stupid. it kills me because i grew up with it and it just never seemed as insulting as plain old stupid in english
Bayou boys gumbo zydeco,I am a lil crazy in lawtell
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Raining over Port-au-Prince again.
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Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
thought I would venture in there to see how bad it was...OMG, that really needs to be checked into. Shouldn't even be allowed. As long as you say hi and talk trash with them I guess it's ok but say somehting they don't like and wow, nothing but a bunch of kids, obviously...won't head back in there, that's for sure. Can't learn anything about the tropics in there. Now back to lurking and learning about the real tropics chat....


ROFL.
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1565. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
patrap, can you post the FL radar again so we can see the circulation?
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Quoting truecajun:


wow. i'm going to refrain from entering ;)
thought I would venture in there to see how bad it was...OMG, that really needs to be checked into. Shouldn't even be allowed. As long as you say hi and talk trash with them I guess it's ok but say somehting they don't like and wow, nothing but a bunch of kids, obviously...won't head back in there, that's for sure. Can't learn anything about the tropics in there. Now back to lurking and learning about the real tropics chat....
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1562. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
When I try to go into tropics chat it always says:

Connection failed! Maybe your network can't access the server, or the server is under maintenance, please try again later!

Anyone know why?
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Hmmm.... scotch.... makes the best granola....

lol

And this mess looks... messy...

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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Do Not Go into Tropics Chat...

NOT RECOMENDED.

Their are Numerous Trolls ...

Its 10X Worse then the Blog.

ADMIN is not doing anything about it.


Like Hardcore weather.
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Quoting Couillon:
Crazy is the key word.



couillon, where are you? that's a good ol' cajun word. my husband gets so mad when i say "you big couillon" to the kids because i'm calling them stupid. it kills me because i grew up with it and it just never seemed as insulting as plain old stupid in english
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maybe now we can see were the surface low is located with that latest plume NE of Cape Canaveral.
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1555. Patrap
He Lived a Wunderful life Dave Dixon.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
TrueCajun, you're not alone. I've been reading the blog for several years and never knew either. Always thought it might be the same as Storm Chat but now I know it's not! Glad u asked..
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
where is invest 95L AND INVEST 96L..WE HAVE LIKE 1,000 INVEST THIS YEAR ONLY THREE STORMS THIS IS CRAZY,,


there's no 95 or 96. people are speculating the development of the waves coming off africa and calling them "could be 95"....
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
where is invest 95L AND INVEST 96L..WE HAVE LIKE 1,000 INVEST THIS YEAR ONLY THREE STORMS THIS IS CRAZY,,
Crazy is the key word.
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Quoting Patrap:


Dave Dixon, visionary behind Saints, Superdome, dies at 87

Dave Dixon, the visionary New Orleans businessman whose determination and drive brought the city the New Orleans Saints and landmark Louisiana Superdome, died Sunday at the age of 87.

good to know he saw his vision come to past
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Quoting CoopsWife:


Pretty much - and yes it can get quite vulgar - been a Navy spouse for 20+ years - but these kids might make a Sailor blush, LOL


wow. i'm going to refrain from entering ;)
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1545. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting FLdewey:

Pickle you kumwuat!


Grandma always said I might have to eat my words.... I say 'sugar'. often, LOL.
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Quoting pilotguy1:


Mt Grandfather a very wise man said that you resorted to curse words when you vocabulary failed. I know in my case that is true.


i use them only when i'm so angry i can't think straight (i suppose not thinking straight can be the equivalence of vocabulary failing)
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Quoting Patrap:


Zoology comes to mind..


Lemmings?
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1538. hcubed
Quoting Hibiscus07:


Skepticism is an absolute necessity, but when it becomes cynicism, it's not valuable. If you've already determined your opinion on the matter and refuse to allow in new information, it's dishonest, imho...


So if a scientist gathers data and doesn't use it, is that being dishonest to the science?
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1536. Patrap
Quoting pcola57:
Whatcha' think bout tropic chat Pat... 'gators might get 'em...ya think?


Zoology comes to mind..

All chat is recorded. Please be civil. We reserve the right to disconnect any users.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting truecajun:


ive been blogging here for 4 years and i've heard people say "go to tropics chat" i've never gone. i don't know where it is. i'm serious


In the box where you add comments, right under Please Note
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Quoting truecajun:


LOL! so they don't have an administrative babysitter in there? they can just say whatever their vulgar little minds want?


Pretty much - and yes it can get quite vulgar - been a Navy spouse for 20+ years - but these kids might make a Sailor blush, LOL
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oh, i see it now. i've never really paid attention to any of the words above the comment box, except the admin notice
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1531. hydrus
Quoting texwarhawk:


I don't really find that true. I can't drink scotch except Johnny Walker Black/Blue (the expensive stuff) but personally I perfer Jack and Coke.
That is why I threw in the (usually). I dont like scotch. But I tried some smokey flavored 12 year old Glenfiddich and it was good. I hope the spelling is close.:)
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1530. pcola57
Whatcha' think bout tropic chat Pat... 'gators might get 'em...ya think?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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