Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1630 - 1580

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

1630. Patrap

1624. tkeith 8:55 PM CDT on August 08, 2010


I saw that Image..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093


Hope you all got your waders handy 48 hr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1628. surfmom
Quoting pottery:

Nice one.
Were you there?


boohoo Nooooooooo - chained, chained to the porch, had it been rope I would have gnawed my way out!
actually I took a pass -- the first 'cane storm of the season always has a testy line-up of young bucks needing, really needing to release.... it's not the time and place for a surfmom.... better to wait for the next one. Which...*sigh* might be in my own back yard.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
As far as chat, I'd been asked to moderate in there, monitor things. But it's just to crazy and violent in there. I've forwarded transcripts of what goes on in there to admin. And invited them to their chat records. I see two of the worst, the very worst in there now. Admin's done nothing. 3 days ago, several handles were talking about shooting one of the kids who chats in there.


Sounds like WWE's "Hell In A Cell" in there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So, where is this 94L?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1625. pottery
Quoting viman:
Hey Pottery still wet in de land of de pan...

Rains were heavy in some areas, but mostly missed me over the last 2 days.
The Works Dept. is still trying to repair a section of the main highway between POS and SanFdo that collapsed a few days ago.
Traffic Mayhem tomorrow....!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1624. tkeith
Quoting Patrap:
Saints go to the White House tomorrow and then Play New England Thursday night in Foxboro..so they picked a good road week to open the pre season
I heard the Pats are gonna start Justin Bieber at QB...ought to be a good pre season game :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1623. Patrap
Quoting tkeith:


Model taken this 94L over water thats too hot to bathe in...

I'll take an order of dry air and a six-pack of wind shear please...and an ULL off to west on the side.


I hate dem lines pernting at us on a Sunday evening too tkeith.

Were closed fer Canes and such.

Cant they see the sign down Venice way..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Wow, GOM temps at or above 90 degrees in northern gulf. Somebody sneezes a wet one in the right direction and we'll have a humdinger of a tropical system on our hands. Hope 94L does fall apart before hitting that hot water. Time for a bath! Back to lurking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1620. tkeith
Quoting Patrap:
94L Computer Model Forecasts


Models takin this 94L over water thats too hot to bathe in...

I'll take an order of dry air and a six-pack of wind shear please...and an ULL off to west on the side.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah, Potts. A little off topic, but I've got a killer vinyl collection and superb sound system.
And yes, it was sublime. Food was good.
And still she cannot just enjoy the evening.
Guess everyone has their albatrosses.
Anyway, I see nothing off St. Augustine.
Must be one of those naked lows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1618. viman
Hey Pottery still wet in de land of de pan...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1617. surfmom
Rain was a welcomed event in SWFL - specially since my AC is KAPUT

what won't be welcomed is any storm even thinking of growing up and visiting NOLA or TX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1616. Halyn
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Our family motto. Lets find the fun in dysfunctional.
I don't think there is any such thing as a "functional family" .. lol .. good thing we can't choose our family .. or some of them wouldn't make the cut .. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1615. pottery
Quoting surfmom:
COLIN WAVES GOOD-BYE
photo: Gulfster/East Coast Florida

Nice one.
Were you there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Our family motto. Lets find the fun in dysfunctional.


And where do you fit on my family tree, Shen? :)

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
As far as chat, I'd been asked to moderate in there, monitor things. But it's just to crazy and violent in there. I've forwarded transcripts of what goes on in there to admin. And invited them to their chat records. I see two of the worst, the very worst in there now. Admin's done nothing. 3 days ago, several handles were talking about shooting one of the kids who chats in there.


Yep, SSI - they are pretty far off the wall. No place for decent ones to be hanging out, for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1612. viman
Good evening, everyone!! Seems like a lot of Pre-Invest.casters in the house tonight - lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
As far as chat, I'd been asked to moderate in there, monitor things. But it's just to crazy and violent in there. I've forwarded transcripts of what goes on in there to admin. And invited them to their chat records. I see two of the worst, the very worst in there now. Admin's done nothing. 3 days ago, several handles were talking about shooting one of the kids who chats in there.


Sounds like you've been to one of my family dinners.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1609. pottery
Quoting Chicklit:

Hi Potts, Day was good.
Had everyone over here.
Fed them, and put on some LPs.
It went too good for my Sis.
She offered five times what a Sinatra LP was worth and I told her no deal LOL.
Bought a killer sound system and wowed them with the vinyl...and the food, of course, so it really was a great evening...
I hope you're dryin out over there.
We finally got some rain here in ECFL.
What a relief!

There is NOTHING to beat the sound of vinyl, on a good quality deck.
Glad you got some showers at last.
We have been lucky, with only a trace of rain last 2 days, but plenty over the mountains just north of here. Stuff is drying out. Nice!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1607. Patrap
94L Computer Model Forecasts
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1606. surfmom
COLIN WAVES GOOD-BYE
photo: Gulfster/East Coast Florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


That may change in 36-48


Ayuh - just hope it's rain and cooler weather, not - well, you know...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hasn't been doing much convectively in the past 12 hours, that is going to have to change if it wants to be a tropical depression.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Tropical Depression Colin
Last National Hurricane Center Advisory
National Hurricane Center Advisory #20
5pm EDT Graphics Update



Tropical Storm Estelle
National Hurricane Cetner Advisory #12
5pm EDT Graphics Update

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

okay, always feel bruised after family gatherings with my sister!!!! ugh.

Thank you, Dear. That's a nice one.
Our family motto. Lets find the fun in dysfunctional.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1600. tkeith
Quoting extreme236:


10% chance for the next 48 hours, with favorable conditions following that per NHC outlook.
Thanks 236. I haven't been on since 5:00 am. Now I see lots of lines pointin at me. I need to read back.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

I had a Great Day!
Sorry yours was, er, um, not so good.

Hi Potts, Day was good.
Had everyone over here.
Fed them, and put on some LPs.
It went too good for my Sis.
She offered five times what a Sinatra LP was worth and I told her no deal LOL.
Bought a killer sound system and wowed them with the vinyl...and the food, of course, so it really was a great evening...
I hope you're dryin out over there.
We finally got some rain here in ECFL.
What a relief!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1598. bappit
CIMSS PREDICT still has location of 93L south of other fixes for 93L. They are doing it on purpose.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
what chances are the NHC givin 94L to develope further?...

anyone?


10% chance for the next 48 hours, with favorable conditions following that per NHC outlook.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1595. Patrap
Quoting CoopsWife:


Looked like maybe that one little cell was going to run NW towards the lake. I was hoping for ya...

Looks like Ike is missing out as well - rain over toward Crestview, but nothing at DeF Spgs.


That may change in 36-48
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Patrap:


Nopa..

Lotsa A/C though.


Looked like maybe that one little cell was going to run NW towards the lake. I was hoping for ya...

Looks like Ike is missing out as well - rain over toward Crestview, but nothing at DeF Spgs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
sorry your day was dysfunctional, chicklit. i've learned from some of my sister in laws, that no matter what you do, even if you do it right, sometimes it can still turn out "wrong"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00Z runs with intensity

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1591. Patrap
Quoting CoopsWife:
Pat - you getting any rain yet?


Nopa..

Lotsa A/C though.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1590. tkeith
what chances are the NHC givin 94L to develope further?...

anyone?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting truecajun:


check out 94L and the pretty wave off africa.

okay, always feel bruised after family gatherings with my sister!!!! ugh.

Thank you, Dear. That's a nice one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jasoncoolman,I hope your right
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1585. pottery
Quoting Chicklit:
Good Grief. Dysfunctional family evening.
Thought I'd done everything right and it still went wrong.
In the meantime, have missed all of the tropical weather chats. And tomorrow is Monday.
Anybody have interesting news?

I had a Great Day!
Sorry yours was, er, um, not so good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pat - you getting any rain yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3 inches of rain measured at my neighbors house. Lake Worth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1582. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 090030
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0030 UTC MON AUG 9 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100809 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100809 0000 100809 1200 100810 0000 100810 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.5N 79.5W 29.7N 80.2W 29.9N 81.4W 30.2N 83.3W
BAMD 29.5N 79.5W 28.6N 80.4W 28.0N 81.9W 27.5N 83.8W
BAMM 29.5N 79.5W 29.3N 80.5W 29.1N 81.9W 29.0N 84.0W
LBAR 29.5N 79.5W 29.2N 80.3W 29.0N 81.6W 28.7N 83.2W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 25KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100811 0000 100812 0000 100813 0000 100814 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.3N 85.2W 30.5N 88.9W 31.0N 91.3W 31.8N 92.8W
BAMD 27.4N 85.8W 28.4N 90.1W 30.0N 93.7W 31.4N 96.8W
BAMM 28.9N 86.0W 29.5N 90.0W 30.6N 93.0W 31.9N 95.3W
LBAR 28.7N 85.1W 28.8N 89.6W 29.4N 93.7W 30.6N 96.9W
SHIP 34KTS 38KTS 42KTS 45KTS
DSHP 32KTS 31KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.5N LONCUR = 79.5W DIRCUR = 225DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 30.1N LONM12 = 78.9W DIRM12 = 213DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 31.1N LONM24 = 78.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Chicklit:
Good Grief. Dysfunctional family evening.
Thought I'd done everything right and it still went wrong.
In the meantime, have missed all of the tropical weather chats. And tomorrow is Monday.
Anybody have interesting news?


check out 94L and the pretty wave off africa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting truecajun:


probably a technologically transmitted disease


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1630 - 1580

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
59 °F
Overcast