Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting LADobeLady:


You must have just watche WVUE? She hardly mentioned it at all.


it was channel 2 WBRZ - one of the younger guys.
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JFV and a whole regiment of trolls are living it up in Weather Chat. I invite all to witness and take action against this. Admin gets a VIP pass. ;)
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1678. surfmom
Quoting pottery:

I might have to go to Tobago this week, so I will drop another rock in the sea off the cliff for you.
Biggest one I can lift, so watch the horizon in a couple days LOL.


you know the last time you did that -- it worked splendidly!
I still remember *sigh*
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Probably on that twisted branch where Uncle Bubba married Aunt Siss's Daughter by Cousin Leroy.



Ahhh - you're talking ' bout the ones that went over the mountain and then got run out of central KY for pig stealing? Wound up down around the KY TN border on the south side of the Cumberland, I take it?

Weather down here in the Tidewater is fine - has it cooled down up in the Shen Valley yet?
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Quoting truecajun:
local met just said 94 should be only a rainmaker.


You must have just watche WVUE? She hardly mentioned it at all.
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JFV made his appearance on the tropics chat.
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Quoting Patrap:


Dont say dat.

I feel faint already.


I'm wishcasting a poof or a fish storm and am proud to say so. Any weather can screw up my weekend, just let me watch the game on Thursday night. It's been a long off season!
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local met just said 94 should be only a rainmaker.
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Quoting tkeith:
It's quite peaceful here in the early mornin hours Chicklit...

Yeah, I'm usually here then when Ike posts.
Anyway, my point is, just do what feels right for you and if there are negative influences, then do whatever you can to reduce them.
But if you're coming from the good place and doing what's important to you, then that's about as good as you can expect.
Everyone has problems. Just try to minimize your own and maximize your production and involvement in what is important to you. Period.
That works for me. And I'm fairly successful.
So for our young folks, I hope you'll listen.
Don't let the negative stuff keep you from doing what you like and is important to you.
You got to believe in yourself.
That's really all you got. That and a job, hopefully, when you're through with your studies.
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Quoting CoopsWife:


And where do you fit on my family tree, Shen? :)


Probably on that twisted branch where Uncle Bubba married Aunt Siss's Daughter by Cousin Leroy.
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1670. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626

intresting little run here.
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1668. Patrap
Quoting LADobeLady:


With my luck the nasty weather will knock out DTV and I won't get to watch the game on Thursday.


Dont say dat.

I feel faint already.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
1667. viman
Hey guys, just a quick take, I'll be going to Orlando on Tuesday afternoon and leaving on Friday afternoon. Do you think that 94L will be something for me to be concerned with?
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OK, I have not looked all day and am taking a quick check before going to bed. What's the deal with 94L? from the models it looks like I have 2 more days of rain and then TX need to prepare for next weekend.
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1664. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting Patrap:
Saints go to the White House tomorrow and then Play New England Thursday night in Foxboro..so they picked a good road week to open the pre season


With my luck the nasty weather will knock out DTV and I won't get to watch the game on Thursday.
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Quoting jlp09550:
So, where is this 94L?



check out the radar patrap posted a few pages back. u can see the circulation there
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Quoting crosbyweatherfan:
Just was wondering used to rely on gfdl as good model but this summer has been off a bit. Which model thus far has done the best job on storms? Can't remember which one handled Alex?


The ECMWF did the best on Alex if I recall right. But it's a global model out every 12hrs.
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Quoting pottery:

I would listen to the Ole People, if I was you........
The Sats are good, but they only see what they can.


Check your mail Pottery
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1659. xcool
sammywammybamy .DA LOTS
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1658. tkeith
Quoting Chicklit:

See ya Baha...
It's quite peaceful here in the early mornin hours Chicklit...
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Hello everybody!!,looking at the latest run of the GFDL,it takes 94L down the East coast of Florida,and becomes a very strong tropical storm before crossing the Florida Penisula,it seems that South Florida is going to get a lot of rain and if this materialize a lot of wind too,any comments about this new development?? thanks!!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, on that note, I think I'll bow out. See u guys in the a.m......

See ya Baha...
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Just was wondering used to rely on gfdl as good model but this summer has been off a bit. Which model thus far has done the best job on storms? Can't remember which one handled Alex?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There are a bit more than JFV. There are the downcasters (Stormtop and countless others) the wishcasters (JFV and countless others). Yeah Dr. Masters is a great place for when the tropics are active, but when they aren't the trolls come out in full force and basically drive you away.

Okay, letting you in one a secret.
I have about 95 names on my ignore list.
What is interesting is, I don't think they post for too long.
Never let the naysayers and negative people keep you from doing what you love.
Just put them on ignore.
Here's lookin' at you Kid!
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Well, on that note, I think I'll bow out. See u guys in the a.m......
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1651. tkeith
1637. Drakoen 9:01 PM CDT on August 08, 2010

not the best of news Drak...but it is what it is.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Now you know why I spend more time on Storm2k than I spend here. This place is literally turning into a laughing stock.


people have been nice today.
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Quoting Chicklit:

That sounds a bit presumptuous.
That JFV character is a psychopath that Admin has allowed back because evidently they don't know how to block IP addresses. But I really think Dr. Master's blog remains the best place to learn about climate change and what's going on in the tropics.
There are a bit more than JFV. There are the downcasters (Stormtop and countless others) the wishcasters (JFV and countless others). Yeah Dr. Masters is a great place for when the tropics are active, but when they aren't the trolls come out in full force and basically drive you away.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Drakoen:
Water vapor imagery shows a deep-layered high centered just west of the Mississippi River Valley. Once this high becomes centered over the Ohio River Valley region over the next couple of days, shear will be reduced significantly and the flow will be coming out of the east. Pressure are also going to be lower naturally south of the ridge favoring development in the Gulf of Mexico.

That's encouraging, Drak. I think everyone along the eastern gulf has had enough of the hot, high pressure weather patterns and could use a good soaking at this point. Hopefully building codes post Katrina are enough to handle it.
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All I see in Tropic Chat is KOTG repeating warning messages.
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1645. pottery
Quoting viman:


I could just imagine :(
weather here has been absolutely beautiful. Spotty rain showers but difinetly no SAL. Havent seen such a pretty blue sky in a while. Ole people say when you get clear weather like this during hurricane season that it usually wasn't a good sign (Something brewing is what they would say, but that was pre-satellite days).

I would listen to the Ole People, if I was you........
The Sats are good, but they only see what they can.
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Is 94L the type thing that is 94 one day was CAT 3 the next?
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Quoting WthrLuvr:
Here's that GOM water temp info from NOAA: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif

HOT HOT HOT
Surface heat,Im looking for currents and outflow.
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1642. pottery
Quoting surfmom:
Gulf temp by me, SWFL/SRQ --- 91 degrees - no coolent there


Yikes!
84-85 hereabouts.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Now you know why I spend more time on Storm2k than I spend here. This place is literally turning into a laughing stock.

That sounds a bit presumptuous.
That JFV character is a psychopath that Admin has allowed back because evidently they don't know how to block IP addresses. But I really think Dr. Master's blog remains the best place to learn about climate change and what's going on in the tropics.
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Quoting jlp09550:
So, where is this 94L?



About 50 miles NNE of the Bahamas. Florida is poised to get a lot of rain from this setup. It also looks like BP got that oil plugged up just in time.
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1639. viman
Quoting pottery:

Rains were heavy in some areas, but mostly missed me over the last 2 days.
The Works Dept. is still trying to repair a section of the main highway between POS and SanFdo that collapsed a few days ago.
Traffic Mayhem tomorrow....!


I could just imagine :(
weather here has been absolutely beautiful. Spotty rain showers but difinetly no SAL. Havent seen such a pretty blue sky in a while. Ole people say when you get clear weather like this during hurricane season that it usually wasn't a good sign (Something brewing is what they would say, but that was pre-satellite days).
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1638. pottery
Quoting surfmom:


boohoo Nooooooooo - chained, chained to the porch, had it been rope I would have gnawed my way out!
actually I took a pass -- the first 'cane storm of the season always has a testy line-up of young bucks needing, really needing to release.... it's not the time and place for a surfmom.... better to wait for the next one. Which...*sigh* might be in my own back yard.

I might have to go to Tobago this week, so I will drop another rock in the sea off the cliff for you.
Biggest one I can lift, so watch the horizon in a couple days LOL.
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1637. Drakoen
Water vapor imagery shows a deep-layered high centered just west of the Mississippi River Valley. Once this high becomes centered over the Ohio River Valley region over the next couple of days, shear will be reduced significantly and the flow will be coming out of the east. Pressure are also going to be lower naturally south of the ridge favoring development in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Here's that GOM water temp info from NOAA: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif

HOT HOT HOT
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La has cold river water flowing into the gulf.RI doubtful,I tried to locate river flow data,but I was not sucessful
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1633. surfmom
Gulf temp by me, SWFL/SRQ --- 91 degrees - no coolent there

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1632. tkeith
I hope Billy Nungesser told em to put the shields up down there...
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It is widely believed that JFV handles are causing a lot of the trouble in chat.


Figures. What "they" said to me is unbelieveable. You all are invited to look at the atrocities in there.
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1630. Patrap

1624. tkeith 8:55 PM CDT on August 08, 2010


I saw that Image..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.