Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1730. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


What's up MH09 ?. The tropics still quiet eh ??

What a strange start to the season. Looks like no action until the last week of August.

Agree with that.
Very peculiar.
The dry air was the Big Surprise?
Everything else was "GO".
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Quoting txsweetpea:


Yea sorry I mean GFDL...just wondering


I don't wish storms on anybody. But the quicker it gets on land the weaker it will be. So I hope it doesn't get anywhere near here.
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Quoting centex:
I think predicting 94L is especially difficult. Best just watch next 48 hours.


agreed. well good night everyone. kids start school tomm am, so ive gotta get back into up at 7 out by 750 :(

no more sleeping in
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey Kman!


What's up MH09 ?. The tropics still quiet eh ??

What a strange start to the season. Looks like no action until the last week of August.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Yep, that's that's them and I wouldn't be related to nun of em if my Daddy hadn't got together with Ma. But like they say you can pick your nose and you can pick your friends but you can't pick your family.

About 70F in Valley, 73F here at eastern foot of Blue-ridge (start of Piedmont) but you knew that just put it in for Yankys and Fureners


Rofl - Thanks Shen - always good to clear up a tangled spot in the genealogy. Weather sounds great - may have to take a run up that way later in the month. And Smith Mountain Lake is calling me too (my destination of choice when avoiding major hurricanes, LOL)
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Hey Kman!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting homelesswanderer:


If you mean GFDL someone said earlier a cat 3 into TX. Don't know if that's right tho.


Yea sorry I mean GFDL...just wondering
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1722. centex
I think predicting 94L is especially difficult. Best just watch next 48 hours.
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1721. will45
Grothar is down there he will hit em with his cane
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1720. xcool





XCOOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting tropicfreak:
SOMEONE GET ON THE CHAT AND DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS CHAOS!!!!!!!!
IM good,Thanks
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1718. viman
Thats not Tropics Chat - Thats a dang zoo, Geez i went in for about 2 minutes and left. it was like walking into a kindergarden class and everyone was doing whatever they wanted to do, total chaos. Everyone - have a good night - I'm outta here.
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Quoting whs2012:
Local FOX met said 94L is just going to be rain. :P Nothing that will develop.


thats what our local guy said
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Quoting tropicfreak:
SOMEONE GET ON THE CHAT AND DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS CHAOS!!!!!!!!

Copy, paste, and e-mail directly to Dr. Masters IMO. I'm not going there; I'll take your word for it. Goodnight all.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
SOMEONE GET ON THE CHAT AND DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS CHAOS!!!!!!!!


What chaos. It's fine here.
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Quoting whs2012:


Lol, that name, "MsRedneck" is so funny. She probably lives in some barn. :D


LOL LMAO!!!
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Quoting tropicfreak:
SOMEONE GET ON THE CHAT AND DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS CHAOS!!!!!!!!

Sorry there Tropic I'm not the one LOL

Taco :o)
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1711. Patrap
NOLA Roux Lurks a lot..
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SOMEONE GET ON THE CHAT AND DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS CHAOS!!!!!!!!
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting txsweetpea:
On the GRDL what catagory storm is it showing when "94" reaches the Tx/La border? Can anyone tell me.


If you mean GFDL someone said earlier a cat 3 into TX. Don't know if that's right tho.
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18:45 UTC Aqua/Modis satellite image of 94L.



13:55 UTC Aqua/Terra satellite image of 93L.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1706. pottery
Quoting surfmom:


you know the last time you did that -- it worked splendidly!
I still remember *sigh*


:):)
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#1697 Hysterical Pat. ROFLMAO
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Quoting Patrap:
Dat Chat is Like a Cat 3 Eyewall..but a lil less wet..

LMAO at you there Pat :o)
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Quoting CoopsWife:



Ahhh - you're talking ' bout the ones that went over the mountain and then got run out of central KY for pig stealing? Wound up down around the KY TN border on the south side of the Cumberland, I take it?

Weather down here in the Tidewater is fine - has it cooled down up in the Shen Valley yet?
Yep, that's that's them and I wouldn't be related to nun of em if my Daddy hadn't got together with Ma. But like they say you can pick your nose and you can pick your friends but you can't pick your family.

About 70F in Valley, 73F here at eastern foot of Blue-ridge (start of Piedmont) but you knew that just put it in for Yankys and Fureners
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
ADMIN..

PLEASE BAN THE FOLLOWING TROLLS:

DrakoenG
TrainWibby
MSredneck
SpideredipS
Ascendant


LOOK AT THE CHAT RECORDS.



ESPECIALLY TRAIN!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU SAMMY!!!
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Quoting pottery:

Kman, back to you...


Got it and replied.
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1698. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Check your mail Pottery

Kman, back to you...
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LADobelady. i know, i agree. i try not to talk about them. actually, i never have because i'm never on when they are on, so that's why i mentioned it. there not here now, right? they are in chat.
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Quoting txsweetpea:
On the GRDL what catagory storm is it showing when "94" reaches the Tx/La border? Can anyone tell me.


The "GRDL" model shows a Cat 3 Hurricane at landfall. I ain't buying it.... JMO
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1694. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
All I saw was a bunch of young males with severe inferiority complexes (hence posting of the GPA's) with attention-seeking behavior. Nothing a little bit of Behavior Mod (AKA: Planned Ignoring) won't fix. Just my .02 worth. Back to 94L and African Waves. :)
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting truecajun:
i have actually never been on the blog when the infamous JFV was here. i guess i just miss the drama. the only drama i've been through here is the GW drama, which wasn't enough to keep my from checking in.


If people would stop commenting and even mentioned the trolls names they would get bored and leave. They come here seeking attention and people give it to them. They're a bunch of bored kids and when you don't feed that need for attention they move on,
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Quoting xcool:
tropicfreak/NO WAY?


yup. HE was either drakG MSredneck TrainWibby.
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i have actually never been on the blog when the infamous JFV was here. i guess i just miss the drama. the only drama i've been through here is the GW drama, which wasn't enough to keep my from checking in.
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1686. Patrap
pssst...


All chat is recorded. Please be civil. We reserve the right to disconnect any users. Enjoy!
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DO NOT GO ON THE TROPICS CHAT. IT IS FULL OF TROLLS WHO WILL JUMP ON YOU IF YOU REPORT THEM!!!!!
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1683. xcool
tropicfreak/NO WAY?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Link
Animated Run
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On the GRDL what catagory storm is it showing when "94" reaches the Tx/La border? Can anyone tell me.
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Quoting LADobeLady:


You must have just watche WVUE? She hardly mentioned it at all.


it was channel 2 WBRZ - one of the younger guys.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.